How to Stop Slow Down Not Get Annihilated by the Ducks
Stanford faces the daunting task of heading up to Eugene to play the #1 team in the country with the #1 scoring offense, #3 rushing attack, AND the #1 rated passer in FBS. I'm guessing defensive coordinator Derek Mason has spent some sleepless nights following the Cardinal win over the Oregon State Beavers last week trying to figure out how to keep the Chip Kelly led offense from scoring 50+, something the Ducks have done against Stanford each of the last two years. Here are some of the problems the Duck offense presents, and what the Cardinal can do to counter punch:
- Kelly's up tempo play calling and limited time between plays typically physically and mentally exhausts defenses. The Oregon offensive linemen are conditioned to run a large number of plays in a short period of time which makes their blocks easier as the game goes on. Stanford is actually built to handle this as the constant rotation and depth (18 different players have recorded a tackle for loss in 2012) should minimize the advantage Oregon typically has. The Cardinal can also help the defense by controlling the clock, converting 3rd downs (7-12 last week against the Beavers), and running the ball effectively against the injury ravaged front 7 for the Ducks.
- Chip Kelly keeps the pressure on defenses by going for it on 4th down early and often, and many times doing it in Duck territory. Stanford is outstanding at creating tackles for loss and getting to the QB, so forcing 3rd and long or 4th and long situations would keep Kelly from going for it and punting the ball back to Stanford. It isn't necessarily a risky strategy employed by the Ducks as Kelly rightfully believes that his offense is better and picking up 2-5 yards is a matter of calling and executing the right play (which they often do as Oregon is converting on 76% of 4th downs this year). However, even Kelly isn't going to risk going for it on long yardage situations, and the Cardinal can do that by penetrating and getting tackles behind the line of scrimmage.
- Oregon is able to create running lanes by spreading the formations and making defenses declare how they are going to play. The zone read option can attack the middle of the field and the perimeter depending on how the defense plays each snap. Stanford's DL have to be able to shed blocks and the inside linebackers have to maintain gap discipline because Kenjon Barner and De'Anthony Thomas are as good as it gets at turning 2 yards of daylight into 80 yard TD runs. It is also critical for Derek Mason to disguise the safety pressures and do everything possible to confuse young Marcus Mariota. Inside LBs on twisting blitzes, Usua Amanam coming off the edge in the nickel package, and safeties Ed Reynolds and Jordan Richards rotating just before the ball is snapped will help the Cardinal create some of those TFL discussed earlier.
- The WRs for Oregon block better than any group in the country. They are big, strong, physical players who are consistently the ones responsible for springing those edge rushes or quick screens into big plays. However, the Cardinal have two of the best tackling corners in Alex Carter and Terrence Brown, while third CB Wayne Lyons is the biggest and strongest of the group. The true freshman Carter made one of the most athletic plays of the year against Oregon State when he shed a WR block, jumped over another, and turned a quick screen into negative play. They are going to need that type of effort against the Ducks, but the good news is that the entire secondary are excellent tacklers.
I certainly don't envy Stanford defensive coordinate Derek Mason because the Oregon offense is one of the best I have ever seen. Kelly has his best group physically, and they are experienced in the system which allows him to call any play at any time. Combine that play calling ability with lighting speed and a QB who can make all the throws, and the result is a team which should break the NCAA scoring record. In fact, they might already would have if Kelly didn't take his foot off the pedal in 5 games this season, as evidenced by them outscoring opponents 348-90 in the first halves of games this year. To put that into perspective, only 34 teams in the country have scored more than 348 all season.
I would also be curious to see how Oregon handles adversity because they have dominated almost every team they've played this season. Would panic set in if the Cardinal come off the ball and figuratively punch Oregon in the mouth? I think we will find out on Saturday because Stanford's front 7 is as physical and quick as any unit in the county. Stanford needs to do all it can to force 6 possessions where the Ducks don't score touchdowns, and Stanford's defensive personnel, scheme, and coaching staff seem like the team best equipped to handle that task.
Comments
Most important Stanford defender...
Stepfan Taylor. T.O.P.
By Sailor Ripley on 11.15.12 4:42pm
No doubt
I think Oregon’s injuries on the DL will lead to a big day from Taylor. I know time of possession isn’t the biggest stat for Oregon, but running a large number of plays is because they are so good at setting things up for the future. Card needs to force punts and control the clock.
By Todd Husak on 11.15.12 4:50pm
Pretty much all of Oregon's experienced D-line will be back for the game
The only exception is Wade Keliikipi.
By ppilot on 11.15.12 4:53pm
they may be on the depth chart, and they may even play, but we dont know how truly healthy they are.
By notoriousj on 11.15.12 6:20pm
I wrote about this today. While TOP is very overrated, Stanford HAS TO consistently move the ball. They have to get first downs on every drive. Not just to keep Oregon’s offense off the field, but to get points of their own. For Stanford to stay in the game, they have to set the tone and play their game. Oregon is so good at capitalizing on any mistakes from the other team. If Stanford makes any, this game could go from close to essentially over before anyone can blink.
I honestly don’t think Stanford has it in them. Their offense has struggled with consistency all year long, and if Oregon’s defense plays even close to it’s ability, that will likely continue.
By jtlight on 11.15.12 6:36pm
Prepare for a good game
Judging Stanford’s Offense by how they have performed “all year long” is your right, but if you insist on that, you will be surprised by the redshirt FR QB Kevin Hogan (#8). He was installed two games ago, and is the real deal. They say this away start at Autzen will test him, but having grown up in the house of a D.C. lobbyist means pressure is no stranger.
Ask any Stanford fan if we are happy about him being in that position….I dare you. In any case, it gives us optimism that Saturday’s game will be more fun to watch than it would have been had there been no QB change in Game #9.
Oh, and by the way, the last time Stanford beat Oregon it had another redshirt FR QB (named Luck) and a Senior RB (named Gerhart). This year’s RS FR QB is no Andrew Luck, but he does remind us of #12 more than any other on the QB depth chart. Stepfan Taylor is already one of the best RBs in Stanford history, and just happens to be a Senior.
Kind of an intriguing parallel, don’t you think?
By SacCardFan on 11.15.12 10:03pm
I don't buy into this brand of thinking
Parallels in football are neat and all, but they are essentially meaningless statistics…But now that you mention it, the last time Oregon replaced a quarterback that had taken them to the Rose Bowl with a first year starting quarterback, plus having a very talented RB that was getting heisman attention, they went to the BCSCG.
I’d rather believe that this game is yet to be decided, not that it was played three years ago and Saturday is just rebroadcast of the game.
By Scrivley on 11.15.12 10:59pm
I’ve been greatly impressed by Hogan. He definitely is an improvement in the passing game. Nunes was downright awful and I can’t believe that Shaw stuck with him for so long.
But (at least in the last two games), Hogan hasn’t made a difference in the run game. Even with Hogan, Stanford will likely still struggle with consistency.
By jtlight on 11.16.12 6:50am
Very strange assertion
The run game has been much better in the past two games — over five yards per carry against Colorado, and nearly five per carry against OSU. Take out the kneels for a better look at the run game against OSU. Better yet, how can you conclude from Taylor’s 110+ yards on 19 carries that the run game is ineffective?
By dth1 on 11.16.12 9:16am
Even if you remove the kneel-downs against Oregon State, Stanford averaged only 4.7 yards per carry. I guess that’s almost five yards per carry. That’s still not very good. But hey, above the season average (if you start arbitrarily removing carries), so that’s fun.
By jtlight on 11.16.12 5:30pm
Again,
A very strange claim that removing kneeldowns is arbitrary. They’re not about gaining yards (duh) and so not really relevant to the question of, is the running game gaining yards or not?
And while gaining 4.7 or 4.8 yards per carry isn’t dominant, that’s a far cry from your original claim that the running game was somehow lacking post-Nunes. It’s a solid performance and about a yard per carry better than OSU’s average. And OSU’s DL is much better than what you trotted out against Cal.
Of course you’ll have a different unit this week, but it’s hard to believe they’ll be totally healthy. So we’ll see.
By dth1 on 11.16.12 8:45pm
If you want to go through the rest of the season and start removing running plays that weren’t about gaining yards, you can do that. But removing them from a single game is not a fair comparison. That’s what makes the comparison arbitrary.
Also, I didn’t claim that the rushing game was lacking post-Nunes. I claimed that there was no discernible improvement. In fact, if you want to compare Stanford’s performance to OSU’s average, you should also compare it to Colorado’s average, when Stanford couldn’t even match the Buffaloes season season averages.
By jtlight on 11.16.12 9:01pm
I’ll again say that I think Hogan is a big improvement in the passing game. But I still think that Stanford will struggle with consistency (especially on the road), and that could spell disaster quickly.
Good luck tomorrow, looking forward to a good game.
By jtlight on 11.16.12 9:14pm
is JT going to come back
to eat some crow or at the very least offer congratulations? Since he took it upon himself to share these comments?
By doublecard on 11.18.12 2:01am
I offered congratulations in the other thread. But considering that Stanford managed only 14 points in regulation, I think my expectations were pretty spot on for Stanford’s offense.
Oregon’s offense? Not so much, but that was in large part due to Stanford’s defense.
By jtlight on 11.18.12 8:22am
I'll be very happy if we keep them under 40
If Stanford is able to lose by <10 points (or win, obviously), I’d be ecstatic.
The Rose Bowl would then be a clear option.
For me, the scariest thing is the ease with which Oregon scores those 80 yard TDs. Stanford has been vulnerable to big plays even from worse teams. And every time we’ve played the Ducks, they’ve had a number of big plays, so minimizing those should be a priority.
By Euler on 11.15.12 10:15pm
I hope Stanford gets the nod for the Rose Bowl
I think they are a much better option than ND
By Scrivley on 11.15.12 11:00pm
Yeah...
… I just hope they keep it close. A win would be gravy…
We’ll see though – Stanford hasn’t had a defense this good in decades (if ever)… if they play a complete game (and avoid their usual routine of mentally checking out for a few drives every game), the team stands a chance. That isn’t much – but at least it is something…
By RickeySteals on 11.15.12 11:11pm
I was right about USC
And I predict a close, tense as f!ck match that makes me jittery for the rest of the night, but I think Stanford comes away with a win.
Every football match is an incredibly complicated interplay of a plethora of factors. We try our best to look to the past to make predictions about who will do what and what the outcome will be, but in the end we are making guesses and using information that can never truly reflect or encompass all of [present] reality. The best we can do is hope that either not much has changed (and our model is still relevant) or that our margin of error is high enough that our predictions are right, even when our reasons for it are wrong.
The predicted outcome looks like people just averaged the outcomes of the previous two games. But there are some solid differences:
1. We have new guys at the secondary who are fast and hit hard. They can catch people and make them pay (Carter is quickly becoming one of my favorite players). We did not have nearly this much speed last year. I’d be a little worried about DThomas or Barner missing part of the game cause they get rocked.
2. Ditto for the QB; he already has some shoulder tweaks and a nice dose of Skov/Thomas/Murphy/a lot of guys on defense will make him feel them.
3. Ditto for Oregon’s d-line.
4. As far as I can tell, last year’s game was a sh!tshow in which Stanford did not play its best, nor even well. The rain made the field an ice rink for us, and somehow we managed to not be prepared for it (though Oregon was). I doubt Shaw will make the same mistake in rain. I also do not think the outcome would have been the same last year had the two teams played as a second time.
5. Hogan is a [good] wildcard to have. People will underestimate him, and I think he is far better than people give him credit for.
6. Does no one find it suspicious that Cal – CAL!! – managed to stop the Oregon run game? Perhaps Oregon’s value is inflated from their easy schedule so far…people fall victim to such inflation quite easily.
I am very excited about Saturday. I’m hoping that at the end of the game, people will be adjusting their views of the Oregon team and this Stanford team.
By hpaskov on 11.16.12 12:25am
While Cal stopped our running game we still ran for 180yds which is more then what you guys average a game & if you sell out to stop the run like Cal did Mariota will make you pay for it
By KJ Brophy on 11.16.12 7:16am
Amen
A good analysis – well put. We’ll see on Saturday, and it will be fun to watch. I’m with you – I think the players have it in them.
The one game element that isn’t discussed much, but may determine the game, is coaching – and though Stanford shows promise, Chip Kelly is one-of-a-kind. For Stanford to win, it will have to be perfect – and perfect means play-calling, substitution management, and 4th down decisions. This (Shaw vs. Kelly) is the true unheralded contest.
By SacCardFan on 11.16.12 7:21am
I don't understand #4
It didn’t rain during the game, in fact it was a beautiful day. I think the killer was that someone told your grounds crew either not to mow the grass, or leave it a little longer than usual in an effort to slow Oregon down and it backfired.
By Pelhament on 11.16.12 9:54am
It rained like woah the entire week before
And somehow, for all of the money we spent building a new stadium, the field did not drain well. I remember there was a spot on the field around the 20 of the student section that made just about every player on our team slip.
By hpaskov on 11.16.12 1:10pm
Yeah after I posted that I remembered the night before that it rained a decent amount.
I was in a bar in Walnut Creek and they had random bar stools through out the bar with tubs on them catching dripping water from the ceiling. By the end of the night every tub was full of empty drink glasses and beer bottles and the drips were ricocheting off them and splashing anyone in a 3 foot radius. Really classy place.
By Pelhament on 11.16.12 9:16pm
Sounds like the kind of cheap place any grad student would call home :)
By hpaskov on 11.16.12 9:26pm