For those who may be new to college football, Stanford-Oregon has been almost as important a game as Alabama-LSU this decade. Even though Alabama has gone on to win 2 national titles since 2010, that doesn't take away from the importance of Stanford-Oregon. In the last 5 years, the winner of this game has gone on to win the conference and since the expansion of Utah and Colorado, only Stanford and Oregon have won the North and are the only teams to win the conference championship game. Oregon has lost in 2 National Championship games and Stanford has missed out on two BCS Championship Game appearances due to Oregon losses. This game has won or lost Heisman trophies, and overall, has made the conference nationally relevant. What most people don't realize is the winner of this game hasn't just won the conference this decade but throughout their history.
Stanford and Oregon have met 78 times since their inaugural game in 1900 and although the importance of this game has not been nationally relevant in the past, that doesn't mean it has not had significant ramifications. Stanford has won the conference 14 times in their history and Oregon has won 12 times. Oregon had its first conference championship in 1916 and Stanford won its first in 1924.
During those combined 26 conference championship runs, Stanford went 10-0 against Oregon and did not play Oregon in the other 4. Oregon has gone 6-2 against Stanford and did not play them in 4 of their conference championship runs. Those 2 losses ended up costing Oregon a chance at a potential National Championship in 2001 and 2009 as Oregon went a combined 22-3 in those two seasons. The point is Stanford versus Oregon has always been a rivalry; it's just finally blossoming on the national scene.
Before we get into this decade, we go back to how the latest chapter of the rivalry began. Most will say that 2009 was the game that started it but you can truly say that the ending of the 2008 game was the beginning of the fireworks show. As Jim Harbaugh was still rebuilding the program in Palo Alto, Oregon was starting their run as a national powerhouse. In 2007, Oregon may have had a shot at the national championship if it weren't for a freak injury to quarterback at the time, Dennis Dixon.
2008 was Mike Bellotti's last season and Oregon came into the season ranked in the top-25. When the Stanford game came along, Oregon was 6-3 but was still a name. It was in Eugene and Harbaugh had a chance to prove that Stanford would no longer be a doormat and that winning big games was not a fluke. Stanford scored to take the lead with 2:18 left to play. The problem was Stanford was still far from having even a decent defense and Stanford gave up the game-winning touchdown with 6 seconds to play. The loss stung but Stanford knew it was heading in the right direction.
Sometimes, you almost wish the 2009 game happened a year later to really put an importance on the series as of late. Stanford-Oregon has been one of the most important games in all of college football this decade plus a year. Since that 2009 game, this series has been a bloodbath. When Oregon has won, it has put up points quicker than a slot machine spews coins on a jackpot. When Stanford has won, the defense strangles Oregon "Godfather Style." That's why the 2009 game always gets brought up because it has been the only game where the winner did not play its "style" of football. And that type of game is something I potentially see this Saturday.
Stanford comes into this weekend with a 2-game lead over Oregon in the North. I am not going to break down how Oregon can win the North because that would take a PhD to explain. I will explain how a win Saturday for Stanford clinches the North and a spot in the Pac-12 Championship Game. It keeps Stanford ranked in the top-10 and a potential spot in the College Football Playoff.
Stanford has lost key members on the defensive side of the ball every year since 2009 but this might be the most athletic team Stanford has had on that side of the ball. If Oregon can't beat Stanford on offense, Stanford will run right down Oregon's throat and Stanford might put up another 50 burger like in 2009. If Stanford wins in dramatic fashion, they will not only continue the trend of beating Oregon during their conference championship years but might get the game back they needed back in 2011. Stanford has 1 loss but that seems light years away and Oregon is still a name even at 6-3. A win on Saturday versus Oregon is all the committee will care about.
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Comments
That speech from Shaw to Williamson from the 2012 game
Man, that speech. That speech, man.
By French Rage on 11.10.15 10:17am
It was just so emotional for everyone
because of the Fiesta Bowl. It was just … you couldn’t have written that script better than what actually happened. And Williamson was money in that Rose Bowl, too.
By Brendan Ross on 11.10.15 5:00pm
Nerd
Awesome article.
Listen, if you can post a vid of the whole game, the 26-20 game, when the OL and Gaffney took over, when the ducks, their feathers ruffled, knew what was coming and they still couldn’t stop it.. their players, Addison in particular on the sidelines, in tears..
It is iconic.. after seein’ the game on a monstrous schreen, and watching it again on Utube later.. i tried to get another view of it on Utube but it had been taken down, something about ESPN owns it ?.. i’m not sure, not well-versed in thaaat angle..
..anywaze here’s my initial take on the upcoming game :
This is a modernized classic conflict. Up-tempo vs huddle; spread option reads vs an all powerful OL that.. when it’s on the move moves the other off the ball, surging into the path off oncoming LBs, cutting off angles.. ; it’s two good DLs with outstanding strength and quickness, with a good mix of experience and talent, without much depth; it’s about a great MLB in the prime of his college career vs a huge, powerful RB who can zig ‘n zag or move the pile vs a smaller leaner muscularly quick RB whose great vision helps him make decisive cuts and big yards vs a much maligned D the produckt of Pellum’s rookie year at DC ? vs the DA’s deputies – the ball stops here – ‘n they’re startin’ to come together ’n execute…
And then there’s Kevin "hog heaven" Hogan, a vet of these wars, and all he does is win.. somethin’ ’bout determination and a quiet form of humility and leadership, that wills it done and does it..
Meanwhile, it seems to me, that Adams is a master of elusiveness and throwing accurately off his back-pedaling back foot in the face of enormously pursuing 300 lb angry hippos… and that gives the duck an X factor that’s almost impossible to predict with any degree of accuracy, except in hindsight when your best guess pops up as a bull’s eye..
By maddogsfavsnpiks on 11.10.15 12:04pm
Agreed, Maddog
Great point that both D lines have first rate talent but not a ton of depth, so it’s crucial to keep VA sitting next to Freeman, Addison, and Carrington on the sidelines watching us grind out 6 minute drives…. (I don’t mean that as a sleight against our underrated and improving defense, but O is where we have a clear advantage to exploit.)
By 206 Cardenal on 11.10.15 1:42pm
Epic battles
Blake "BoomBoom" Martinez vs Rolls Royce Freeman
..i don’t know if y’all saw the other games last Sat, especially the Rolls runnin’ ‘n hummin’, makin’ mad crazy cuts, a 235lb man-machine turnin’ on a thin dime, then runnin’ over folks like a buffalo-duck vs the Devil D, one of the best run Ds in the Pac..?
..i don’t know if he can be stopt, as Freeman was runnin’ freer than i’ve seen, in gear, striking fear, DBs like deer, poor dears, in the headlights…
..if anyone can do it, Blake "El Hermano" Martinez can oh.. mano y mano, pad to pad, helmut to helmut.. cussin’ the things concussions are made of..
..’n then also containing Mr Adams.. ?
..whoa doggies ’n holy doodle.. better grab the poodle ’n get the duck outta the way…!
By maddogsfavsnpiks on 11.10.15 7:43pm
"Get the duck outta here"
You, sir, just gave me a great sign idea for Saturday.
By French Rage on 11.10.15 9:43pm
Maddog
I would be interested in your projection. Or is the X-factor Vernon Adams too unpredictable to quantify in a final score?
Here’s the way I see it (and boy could I be wrong): the Ducks rolled us last year even though some people were predicting an upset in Autzen. We simply didn’t have the guns to ruin their season in 2014. They proceeded to the CFP, trounced FSU, then hit a wall against the Buckeyes. I say we repeat that pattern: some are predicting an upset, but the Cardinal stays true to form and puts them away by, say, 7-10 points. How about 38-30? I won’t predict anything beyond this.
By Jeff Tarnungus on 11.10.15 3:32pm
An additional question
The Ducks D is notoriously weak this year. Is their D-line the only functional part? I haven’t paid attention to the individual parts; I just know they give up a slew of points every game.
By Jeff Tarnungus on 11.10.15 3:38pm
38-30
Sounds good to me. In fact, my dear Ripley, believe it or not, but when i was musing earlier, and defiantly predicting the unpredictable, i conjured up the very same score, Eggs Ackley.
Mmmmm tastes so good too… cuz i love me some roast, wild-rice-fed duck.. my mouth waters ‘n chills run up ’n down my spine..
But still, VA, because of the previous finger injury, is only recently settling into his role, and they’re on a roll with Freeman and Adams and Addison and Stanford ! Of all the… it’s almost blasphemous !!
… so yeah, Adams is a wild card duck… and yeah, that’s pretty hard to unravel, yes ? …no ? ….maybe so ?
Who was it that said, "ya pays your money.. and takes your choice.. ain’t freedom grand !"
By maddogsfavsnpiks on 11.10.15 9:53pm
heck yeah
I will always enjoy Big Game wins, but the Oregon games are where we’ve proved the model that is today’s Stanford football. I really want this one. If a genie told me we had to split the games against Oregon and Notre Dame and I got to choose, I’d (first try to talk him into two wins, but if forced) take the win over Oregon.
By 206 Cardenal on 11.10.15 1:30pm
Agree
Winning the Pac-12 North and getting to the Pac-12 championship game is still more important to me than any CFP discussion. Plus, if we lose to the Ducks, we are out of the NC discussion anyway.
That said, there aren’t any genies, and the players themselves will have to battle this thing out. I think Stanford is up to the task, and no jet-ski Oregon offense is going to scare me at this point. The Cougs already made me sweat blood; and they are vicious in Martin stadium.
By Jeff Tarnungus on 11.10.15 3:36pm
Stanford upto #7 now in the rankings
A top 5 showdown is surely in the cards if we hold serve and with Utah jumping florida, they maintain serve we have 2 top 10 showdowns in consecutive weeks. I have even more confidence now that if we win out we are in.
By layman on 11.10.15 4:39pm
The key is not only winning out
but having fewer than three undefeated teams.
If there is only one spot for a 1-loss team, it probably comes down to Stanford and Bama, and that will be an interesting discussion for the committee, with Stanford having a good case for the reasons you state, but still one fraught with risk for us. If there are two spots for 1-loss teams, I think Stanford is in if it wins out. I think in that scenario, the B12 will end up sitting unless it has an undefeated team.
By Brendan Ross on 11.10.15 5:15pm
Key: Anderson + Kalambayi to contain V.Adams
If Adams can’t scramble then Ducks suck. Adams gets 3rd downs by scrambling. Have the Defense practice by chasing McCaff.
This is a classic beef vs speed game.
Get ahead early, vary the blitz a lot. Use Nickel almost all day.
By ADPATERSON on 11.10.15 4:50pm
The series is a modern rivalry that has become a classic
It’s because of the contrasts — styles, universities, fanbases. It’s just a total contrast. And the teams have managed to find a way to get in the way of each other pretty consistently, costing the Pac numerous championship game chances. It’s just a huge game, and the recent history, barring last year, has been filled with classic, memorable games. For me, the 12 and 13 games were just amazing — different but amazing. Oregon was in tears in the 3rd quarter of the 13 game, and I remember very well the iconic sack of Mariota where our players basically jumped on his back. It bears remembering that as great as Mariota was, and he was truly great (you can see that from his NFL performance), he was 1-2 against Stanford, finally getting his due against us last year.
Looking forward to another great installment on Saturday.
By Brendan Ross on 11.10.15 5:11pm
Repeat of 2009?
For the first time in a while, Stanford brings an explosive O and a suspect D to this game ala 2009 where it was a TOP shootout. Equate mcaffrey to gerhart, a freshman luck to hogan, LMJ to rolls royce, masoli to VA and we can expect the same. A high scoring 45-41 with the last one with the ball wins scenario would be thrilling to watch.
By layman on 11.10.15 5:36pm
It could be like that
I’m expecting a slightly bigger spread because I think our defense, while not up to par vis-a-vis the standard set in 2012-2014, is still quite a bit better than Oregon’s defense. But it will not be the same character as the games in 12-14, that’s very true.
By Brendan Ross on 11.10.15 5:42pm
"a suspect D" ?
Scoring Defense : 20.2 pts per game allowed, 2nd in the Pac, 30th in the nation. (out of 128 +/- FBS teams)
Run Defense : 3.85 yards per carry allowed, 4th in the Pac, 44th in the nation.
Pass Defense (a) : 6.2 yards per pass attempt allowed, 2nd in the Pac, 23rd in the nation.
Pass Defense (b) : 53.7% completion percentage, 1st in the Pac, 25th in the nation.
Pass Defense © : 113.16 QBRating (for opposing qbs), 3rd in the Pac, 26th in the nation.
Run Offense (a good run game usually means advantageous TOP, keeping opposing Os off field) : 5.19 yards per carry, 3rd in Pac, 24th in nation.
Note – About 50% of the teams included in national rankings are not in the Power 5 conferences + BYU+ND. For instance, Stanford’s 30th ranked Scoring Defense nationally, should be roughly equivalent to being 15th amongst all Power 5 teams, and so on.. (i’m going to double check this theory later, and i’ll edit this "Note", if it’s grievously inaccurate.)
Conclusion : Stanford’s D may be young, and relatively inexperienced, but i feel it’s misleading to label them "suspect", when actually they’re performing remarkably well, and seem to be improving strongly, weekly ;)..
By maddogsfavsnpiks on 11.10.15 9:23pm
Checked out the stat ranks only within the 66 Power 5 Conference (P5) teams :
Scoring D : Pac 2nd ; Nat’l 30th ; P5 22nd
Run D……. : Pac 4th ; Nat’l 44th ; P5 30th
Pass D (a) : Pac 2nd ; Nat’l 23rd ; P5 18th
Pass D (b) : Pac 1st ; Nat’l 25th ; P5 16th
Pass D © : Pac 3rd ; Nat’l 26th ; P5 19th
IMO, the only aspect of the Stanford D that could possibly be considered "suspect" according to the rankings, is the Run D, but on the other hand, holding the opponent to 3.85 ypc, that is, under 4 yards per carry, is still quite good..
By maddogsfavsnpiks on 11.10.15 10:45pm
Agree
I think our D is quite a bit better than the Duck D, despite youth and inexperience. There are also certain patterns from 2013 that can be repeated, despite the change in our defense: our O can play ToP football better than just about any team, which should allows us to keep Adams and Freeman off the field. If our offense is as effective as against Colorado, then two to three stops might be enough for us to win the game. Assume Oregon has 7-8 possessions and scores on five of them, say, three touchdowns and two field field goals; and we have eight possessions and score on six of them (four touchdowns and two field goals). That’ll do it. We were able to cut Colorado’s number of plays from 114 vs. UCLA to a bit under 60 vs. us, or about half the previous game’s total. That is certainly repeatable versus the Ducks, since their D is no stronger and should allow our O to run long, grinding, time-consuming drives.
By Jeff Tarnungus on 11.11.15 6:56am
I said suspect not mediocre
The defense is still suspect because of the huge number of freshman QBs we have faced to raise those stats. Between the 20s the defense gave up huge chunks to Luke falk and at times to even liufau. The red zone defense is still the same old stifling kind which suggests change of philosophy to bend but dont break. The ducks are also the stiffest test. It’s the yardstick for our defense and lest we forget our best most talented D last year got shredded to tune of 45
By layman on 11.11.15 12:45pm
Also, the defense has amazingly gone fairly untested through some of our major games.
Getting out to huge leads has made offenses one dimensional and really made it so the defense hasn’t had to play a full game. My gut tells me it’s a solid unit, but the lack of depth and relative inexperience could show its head over the course of a full game against a solid offense.
By Tim Eckert-Fong on 11.11.15 1:20pm
i 'spect the suspect is to blame..
Personally, i feel the blame game is counter productive, especially when fingering suspects before there’s a crime..
Good teams lose to good teams, it happens. By law. Good Os score on good Ds.
Stanford’s D played a dynamic O and a very effective qb, in the E-Coliseeum, including playing from behind and squeezing off the vaunted Trojan Man’s potencies, allowing the O to come back, on 2 different occasions.
Furthermore, despite the fact that Rosen is a rosey-cheeked freshman qb, he’s murder if your team, your dbs, your whole D is unprepared. But the Stanford D was resoundingly ready… wiping the smile off the kid’s cherubic face.. and don’t forget the ‘ruins were the cat’s meow before the Tree and the Devils got to ‘m.. and guess what they’re on a streak again whilst we speak..
So, the Stanford D is playing remarkably well, imo, and seemingly improving week by week.. and Duane Akina, Randy Hart, Lance Anderson are doin’ a great job of gettin’ it together, workin’ around the injuries, and the guys are good fundamental D, defeating blocks and making tackles… i mean, i haven’t seen alotta missed tackles.. altho this weekend is a different many headed hydra of an O..
So, i suspect they’ll give it their best shot..
By maddogsfavsnpiks on 11.11.15 1:54pm
correction - the above should read :
"…and the guys are playing good fundamental D…"
By maddogsfavsnpiks on 11.11.15 2:00pm
earlier this season this game looked like a gimme
but not so much right now. Stanford’s D has done more than enough in all of their games to give the offense the chance to win, including NW.
16 to NW
7 to UCF
31 to USC
24 to OSU
17 to UA
35 to UCLA (but 14 came after the 1st team D stopped playing)
14 to UW
28 to WSU
10 to CU
The ducks meanwhile have given up lots of points:
42 to EWU
31 to MSU
28 to GAst
62 to Utah
24 to CU
45 to WSU
20 to UW
55 to ASU
28 to Cal
Except for that game against NW, the Stanford offense has scored more than 30 points in each game, that shouldn’t change against the Ducks (i’m expecting 40+ through 4 full quarters of play, since the game won’t likely be out of hand early and the ducks are dangerous and can come back quickly). If they can keep Oregon to under 35 points, which I think is quite reasonable, they should have a very good chance of winning the game.
By Chris96 on 11.12.15 11:02am