How can you know if Oregon’s offense has hit its stride, given that its last two games were against the 6th and 11th ranked defenses in the conference? What part of Oregon’s successes were those defenses too-typical failures?

And before those games, they scored 26 against a Washington team that has allowed 22.7 in its conference games. Certainly not an explosion.

By harry.beckwith1 on 11.13.15 10:31am

Putting up a school record amount of offense is always going to be noteworthy

Cal’s defense may be bad, but 777 yards against them is absurd. 41 points against the 6th-ranked defense is also pretty Oregon-like (6th in defense means they’re average, not bad). The Washington game was also the first game for Adams back from injury

By John Nguyen on 11.13.15 10:37am

All good points! Thanks, jvdnguyen!

By Matt Vassar on 11.13.15 6:05pm

Hey, you could well be right!

With the exception of Washington, Oregon hasn’t faced meteoric defenses, so I honestly hope that you are right and that their offense turns out not to be explosive at all. In fact, I would love it if you were right and I were wrong because I’m still on edge from that very close (and very stressful) win over Washington State two weeks ago. And I would love it if Oregon showed up with nothing on offense, and Stanford ends up with a walk in the park leading up to Big Game next week.

But I have to call it as I see it, and it’s hard to deny that Oregon has looked like a completely different team since the return of Vernon Adams Jr. Don’t get me wrong; Jeff Lockie was a serviceable backup, but he wasn’t anything better than that. In terms of in-conference passer efficiency, Lockie ranked toward the bottom of the Pac (12th out of 13, only ranking ahead of true freshman QB Seth Collins from Oregon State).

On the other hand, Adams’ passer efficiency rating in-conference has been second-best (only trailing Kevin Hogan). So, you have a backup QB who’s second-WORST in the Pac-12 and trade him for your starter who’s second-BEST in the Pac-12? It seems like that might just cause some improvement.

And sure enough, since then we’ve seen a return of Oregon’s passing game to complement its already-strong running game. Having the potent combination of the pass and rush has left defenses off balance, and Oregon’s offense has suddenly been performing pretty well.

As for Oregon’s game against Washington, let me ask you an honest question: would you agree that Stanford’s offense is explosive? Well, Stanford only put up 31 points against Washington, even while playing in the cozy confines of Stanford Stadium. Oregon, on the other hand, had to play Washington on the road and STILL put up 26 points. Put simply: Oregon’s 26 points on the road against Washington and Stanford’s 31 points at home are indeed quite comparable.

Bottom line: Washington’s stingy defense is going to make ANY offense look somewhat worse than its usual numbers.

And when Oregon is putting up a school-record 777 yards against Cal, that’s something to take notice of. And remember that this is freaking OREGON that we’re talking about, so to make any offensive record from that school is a pretty lofty standard. You may say "But it was Cal’s defense!" and I’d concede that you’re right, but this was a record for OREGON against ANY defense. Oregon’s faced even worse defenses many times before, and never before put up a number like that.

Many of the statistical markers are suggesting that Oregon’s offense (and, specifically, the passing game) is quite a bit stronger with the return of Adams. But as I said before, I nonetheless hold out hope that you are right and I am wrong, and that Oregon’s offense will be nothing more than ho-hum tomorrow.

By Matt Vassar on 11.13.15 6:02pm

In fact, I would love it if you were right and I were wrong because I’m still on edge from that very close (and very stressful) win over Washington State two weeks ago. And I would love it if Oregon showed up with nothing on offense, and Stanford ends up with a walk in the park leading up to Big Game next week.

100%. I freaking hate it that their offense seems to be back, and would love nothing more than to be proven wrong and have their offense do absolutely nothing tomorrow, but that sounds too much like underestimating them. I’d rather be overly cautious than not worried enough

By John Nguyen on 11.13.15 10:06pm

The problem is the vertical threat with adams

With Lockie the Utah and Wazzu D just keyed in on freeman and didn’t have to worry about the ducks vertically stretching the field. But as the washington game highlights showed, adams nonchalantly threw for a 50 yard bomb on a scramble to carrington. With their track starts devon allen back, the ducks will go 4-wide and ask stanford to pick its poison. Thank god adams doesn’t have the top end speed of mariota to take it to the house, so he will only get a few 3rd down and 3/4 yards.

Having said all this if the stanford DL was more healthy I can see them slowing this down. Granted the ducks OL has seen some dropoff but still the way to stop that offense cold is by dominating the trenches and occupying blockers to unleash our LB crew on them. With stanford playing more zone coverage and playing deep safeties, they won’t give up many over the top plays like Cal but if we generate pressure and win 1st down then get them down to 3rd and long and off the field. I hope I am proved wrong and the secondary suddenly become ball-hawks and create some turnovers (adams has accuracy issues). But offense has to start fast and stay ahead of the game if the D can’t hold up

By layman on 11.13.15 10:49pm

Another very solid post.

Thanks, layman!

By Matt Vassar on 11.13.15 11:55pm

Stanford ready; Oregon doesnt have an 8 game win streak

Next week is Big Game; this week is BIGGER Game! This week we play ANGRY. No prisoners; Step on their necks and pluck the feathers just like last time in 2013 at Stanford when they had Heisman Mariota and flashy slot back D.Thomas. Turnovers were ESSENTIAL to that victory. No altitude or bad weather this week. Our House, C-House.
1) Stop their run; make them one dimensional on Offense. Cardinal D will be the difference in this game. Watch our 4star LB #32 from Portland; Alfieri tackled these guys in H.S. We must force Adams to give us the ball.
2) Contain QB Adams; rush 4, one of them blitzing; play Nickel most of the game. This will be the fastest offense we play all year. *
3) Their secondary is among the WORST in Pac12. Throw to Tight Ends a lot to setup run (gotta have more cowbell!). Get McCaff and Love wide in space. Toss a few to FB Marx. Use McCaff and Love together, play action fakes, one as a decoy.
Hogan should have a capstone day. Pound the Ducks and LOCK UP the North NOW! No breathing space. Snuff them in a pillow early. Cardinal favored by 3FGs. I like 38-20 as a convincing final score.
Then we wait for UTAH to get it done in South. If a Tree falls loudly on top of a duck, does anyone hear it? Yes, the Playoff Committee!

By ADPATERSON on 11.13.15 3:15pm

Man, I love EVERYTHING about this post!

Kudos as always, ADPATERSON!

By Matt Vassar on 11.13.15 6:06pm

Changing my predictions

All week long my head said the card will win easily but my gut says we lose this one. The way to beat the ducks is by defense and I fear if they get to a quick lead in the first quarter, that throws off our ground and pound clock game. Hogan is playing to his potential but is prone to that one inexplicable game (even luck in his senior year in 2011 got waxed). We are still talented enough to go 12-2 and win the rose bowl vs Iowa. Again just changing things based on gut, mind is firm on stanford by 10+.

By layman on 11.13.15 4:54pm