The exact phrase to describe the Cardinal loss to Oregon on Saturday: "Ugh!"
Stanford was within a 2-pt conversion of tying the game, however a missed assignment, and an errant pass just seemed to slip through the fingers of the Cardinal, much like most of the game.
Stanford had multiple chances in this game to take complete control, and they just seemed to shoot themselves in the foot at every turn.
Give credit to Oregon; they had a game plan, stuck to it, and made the plays when it was necessary to escape the Farm with the upset victory.
The Ducks offense utilized their speed and athleticism to wreak havoc on the Cardinal defense, and clearly exposed the weakness of the Cardinal Secondary with several big plays.
Oregon ended with 436 yards of total offense. Ducks RB Royce Freeman bulldozed the Cardinal defensive front with 105 yards rushing and a TD, and QB Vernon Adams had a solid performance completing 10 out 12 passes for 205 yards and 2 TDs.
Stanford did post impressive numbers along the offensive front, as the Cardinal dominated the time of possession and accrued 506 yards of total offense.
However the gaudy offensive numbers cannot mask the countless mistakes that cost the Cardinal on Saturday night. Three costly turnovers, and seven penalties led to the inevitable doom of the Cardinal and will now need some to put their pent up aggression at this game towards the rival Cal Bears on Saturday.
Here is the report card for the week:
Offense: B
The Cardinal were able to accrue 506 yards of offense and posted another solid 36 point total; but mental mistakes cost the Cardinal on Saturday evening. Stanford made mistakes in blocking schemes, and committed several penalties that cost field position and inevitably the game. After the game, Head Coach David Shaw noted that there were too many mental breakdowns along the line, and plays were not executed to the best of Stanford's ability.
Quarterback: B-
Kevin Hogan did make several fantastic plays on Saturday, however he was responsible for all three turnovers that dearly cost the Cardinal. Hogan was pressured all night, and if it was not for the fantastic play of his WRs and TEs; Hogan and the Cardinal may have lost by a larger margin. Hogan did post solid numbers with 304 yards on 28 of 37 passing with 2 TDs; but the key statistic that everyone will talk about is the two botched snap fumbles, and the errant interception. Hogan will need to dust himself off the deck, and get back in there for the Cardinal as he has accomplished several times in his tenure on The Farm.
Running Backs: A
Sophomore RB Christian McCaffrey posted another fantastic game with 147 yards on the ground with 1 TD. McCaffrey is a force to be reckoned with on the ground, and the ultimate weapon for the Cardinal attack. The Super Sophomore has to be accounted for on every play by the opposing defenses, and the Ducks still could not fully stop him from controlling the ground. Senior Remound Wright has developed into the short yardage specialist, much like a Marcus Allen late in his career; if you need that 1-yard, Wright will make it happen. Freshman Bryce Love also is contributing, and will be a force in the future.
Wide Receivers: A
The Cardinal WRs had their best game of the season, bar none. Michael Rector had his best game of the 2015 season with 103 yards receiving, and Devon Cajuste made several big catches along the way. Rollins Stallworth had not been used in the passing game for most of the year, but contributed 3 big catches for 39 yards. The Cardinal WRs showed that they can be contributors to the offensive attack, and that can open the field to bigger plays for other skill players.
Tight Ends: B
Junior TE Greg Taboada was the bright spot for the Cardinal TEs on Saturday as he was able to make two big grabs in the end zone for Stanford. Junior Austin Hooper seemed to be out of sorts all game as he missed several blocks, dropped a few passes and committed a costly holding penalty on the opening drive that ended a drive without a TD. Hooper has been steady all year, but the Ducks secondary made sure that Hooper would not beat them in the game.
Offensive Line: C-
The Offensive Line for Stanford had been the constant bright spot for the Cardinal throughout the season; however Oregon utilized their speed and athleticism to throw the line off of their game on Saturday. Tackle Kyle Murphy and Guard Joshua Garnett had good games, and were relied heavily upon in the run game, however the two biggest issues were at Tackle with the ineptitude of Casey Tucker, and the botched snaps under center in the "Ogre Package". One scout noted that Tucker looked to be on "skates" all night as he could not control the Ducks pass rush at all. Tucker has struggled in pass protection, and his missed block at the end cost the Cardinal a chance to tie the game. The botched snaps were not from Senior Center Graham Shuler, but from back-up Johnny Caspers. Shuler is normally pulled from the game in the ogre package due to the larger size of Caspers, but there was a complete disconnect between Hogan and Caspers on Saturday night. These issues need to be fixed if the Cardinal are to have any chance at the PAC 12 title.
Defense: C-
The Cardinal seemed to be outmatched by the "Quack Attack" of Oregon for the bulk of the game. Stanford could not catch up to the speed of the Ducks, and it was too late in the game when the Cardinal finally made a change in approach. The Cardinal missed too many tackles, and the secondary was exposed for its lack of concentration throughout the game. The bright spot of the Cardinal defense was the play of the defensive line that made several big plays throughout the game. Stanford will need to shore up these issues going forward if they are to have any chance at the PAC 12 title.
Defensive Line: B+
Graduate Transfer Brennan Scarlett and Senior Kevin Anderson were impressive along the defensive front line. Scarlett posted his best game of the season with 5 tackles and 2.5 sacks, and was a constant presence in the backfield all night. Senior Kevin Anderson made a huge play with a fumble recovery, and almost rumbled in for a score in the 2nd quarter. The defensive line has improved every week, and was the main reason that the Cardinal were able to stay close so late in the game. The grade for the Defensive Line would have been better, if not for the 231 yards allowed on the ground.
Linebackers: C-
The "Tackling Machine" Blake Martinez was not operating on all cylinders Saturday night as the Ducks made sure that the Senior Linebacker was not able to make any big plays. This blocking scheme led to several missed tackles, and runners bursting through holes that the LBs were not able to fill. The Ducks utilized their quick jumps to the outside to make big plays, and the LBs of the Cardinal did not have enough speed to catch up to the Oregon runners.
Secondary: D-
Kodi Whitfield and Dallas Lloyd are both converted offensive athletes that have been made into safeties; and their lack of experience was exposed on Saturday night. Whitfield and Lloyd had their worst game all season in the defensive backfield for Cardinal as they were not able to keep up with the Ducks flying attack. Whitfield and Lloyd were torched for several big plays, and both players missed tackles that gave the Ducks bigger yardage gains. CB Alijah Holder had been playing better, but a costly un-necessary roughness penalty gave the Ducks life on a stalled drive, and was just another egregious issue for the Cardinal Secondary. The Cardinal Secondary is not the speediest bunch, but will need to use their technique better for any future success.
Special Teams: B
PK Conrad Ukropina did make some quality field goals, including an impressive 49-yard boot at the end of the first half; but when the Cardinal needed Ukropina to put points on the board early in the 3rd quarter, he pushed the 43-yard attempt wide right. There were not many great chances at returns for Christian McCaffrey, and the one chance at a punt return netted a negative 5 yards. The Cardinal Special Teams have been steady throughout the year, and will be relied upon heavily going forward.
Coaching: C-
The Coaching for Stanford has been consistent all year. The Cardinal emulate the calm and steady nature of their Head Coach David Shaw; but sometimes the fans want to see a quicker hand at making changes in the game plan. Stanford had too many opportunities wasted on both sides of the ball with play calling that some may say to be questionable. The two botched snaps were squarely on the triumvirate of the play call of Shaw, and the hand off between center and QB. Everyone in the stadium knew that Field Goals were not going to beat the Ducks, and it seemed that the Cardinal were ok with settling with only 3 points when they should have been trying to reach the end zone. Stanford has done this in other games this season, and this time the conservative approach hurt the squad.
Overall: C
Lets get this clear: Stanford lost this game. The Cardinal had countless chances to be up multiple scores, and they failed miserably. The Cardinal were too conservative in play calling, and were constantly burned by big plays. Stanford should have won this game; they had opportunity, and they blew it. The chances for a College Playoff scenario are all but a thought in the wind, and it will take an enormous amount of mental fortitude to get over this missed opportunity.
Comments
Fair Analysis
Broadbased mistakes cost the game, despite some bright spots. The D held late in the game to get enough stops to put the Cardinal in a position to at least tie. Hogan hit a variety of wide receivers at the end of the game despite Oregon knowing that we were passing on every down. But like so many of the Stanford losses over the past several years, if we let games stay too close for too long, we put ourselves in a position to possibly lose – either through our own mistakes or heroics by the opposition. We escaped from Pullman having left an opportunity on the table for Wazzu to win the game by not punching our last possession in for a touchdown. The Ducks escaped from Stanford because we failed just a little bit too often, and at the end when it mattered.
I get that we (and, frankly, any team) can lose a game like this every year. Oregon is much better than its record. Come into the Oregon game undefeated and we still have a great chance at the playoffs despite a Duck loss. It is the Northwestern game that is still killing me. Can’t have those games and make to the NC.
By hoyaparanoia on 11.16.15 10:23am
One minor correction, only the second fumble came from Casper as the center.
Shuler was in on the first one, and he is the center in the typical ogre formation. Caspers takes the role of center in the shorter yardage situations when Wright is typically in the game.
I think both fumbles are on Hogan (they looked like fine snaps). Not sure who the INT falls on as it was probably thrown a little too hard but was also totally catchable. Amazingly we still had a chance to win.
By Tim Eckert-Fong on 11.16.15 11:07am
Yes
The more I have thought about the game, the more I see it as a combination of bad or near-worst scenarios when playing any strong opponent. Our stellar O-line did not perform to their usual full strength; Hogan had too many bad Hogan moments; settling for FGs instead of trying to punch it in; the D being exposed; and the turnovers. Tell me before the game that all this is going to happen, and I would predict a three TD loss to Oregon. Yet we were still within 2 points at the end with a chance to force OT. This was not Stanford falling short versus a superior opponent: it was some bad luck, some bad execution and some bad patterns that we have seen in the past come back to haunt us. Go back to the Oregon-Stanford game in 2013: Shaw also settled for a lot of FGs in that game, but we had an iron-clad defense back then and ultimately could afford to do that. With that defense, 26 points were enough to snuff the Ducks. Settling for FGs in this game was setting us up for the loss.
There is also, not surprisingly, a correlation between bad Hogan and an underperforming O-line. When he doesn’t get pass protection and is feeling the pressure, he is obviously going to perform worse and make mistakes. His stats don’t necessarily show it, but it was visible. And three turnovers attributable to an experienced QB in such a critical game. Near worst-case scenario when going up against a strong opponent.
Yes, and we still almost pulled it out. A bit better defense, less conservative red-zone offense, no turnovers: we win easily. All that said, I am still not sure we would cut a good figure in the CFP this year. The defense is simply not championship caliber right now.
There’s one other thing I would like to point out, and this has appeared to be a pattern during the Shaw era. In the course of a season, there is more and more film available on our offense; and as opposing teams study us, they also figure us out. Wazzu was the first to solve the McCaffrey conundrum; and Oregon tried very much the same strategy. Shaw finds it difficult to adjust when his plan isn’t working and often obdurately sticks to his guns when he needs to change and move on. I am certain the Bears have reviewed all the film and know what to do to limit and even shut down McCaffrey. Rather than slam him into a wall for two quarters, Shaw needs to adapt now, before the game, and throw them off balance out of the gates. Neither the Ducks nor the Cougs were known for stout defenses when we faced them, but they looked far better than advertised. Cal’s offense also has weaknesses; but if they know what we are going to do 80% of the time, they will find a way to slow us down.
By Jeff Tarnungus on 11.16.15 11:42am
Far as your last paragraph goes...
We (I’m a Ducks alum) benefited from one of very few if not the first solid game played by our LBs all season. It was an extremely pleasant surprise from my perspective, and just one of those things that can turn an opponent-appropriate gameplan into a not-quite-as-appropriate one. There have definitely been other UO-Stanford games where we knew exactly what you guys were going to run and still couldn’t stop it over and over and over, and before this game I would have put the over/under on McCaffrey’s rushing yards at somewhere north of 200 – our D has been that bad.
By RB Stewart on 11.16.15 1:07pm
Or one can say
Your defensive coordinator had the film and keyed his LBs on the Stanford running game, hence they performed better than expected. We have the tendency to become too predictable on offense. And when the O-line shows the slightest weakness, it can be an issue. When our O-line is impeccable, you end up with the scenario in which even knowing what we are going to do doesn’t help.
By Jeff Tarnungus on 11.16.15 2:24pm
Yep. If we had only begun with play action to set up the run....
By Visionary_ensemble on 11.16.15 6:09pm
Reason: Shaw stuck to the run game for controlling the clock
Don’t get me wrong, I thought the ducks game planned and executed it well and the card were sloppy, but we stuck to our gameplan due to pre-disposed notions of the past. Coming into the game everyone knew the ducks DL (like wazzu DL) is good and their run defense wasn’t bad as numbers make it seem. It’s their secondary which was terrible (imagine stanford scoring a touchdown in 40 seconds in that final drive through the air). If we had any depth and trust in defense, we go the air more than the ground (partially we did seeing the WR stats). The problem was shaw knew that the running game has to get going and he wants to chew clock to save his defense and keep it close. And the running game in general is not quickly established and it depends on the OL wearing the other defense down so that if you find yourself in the lead in the 4th quarter your opponent just wilts. Unfortunately for us, we got behind the score and when he had to abandon the run, he also has to abandon clock which shaw never does. Again if we did not have those 2 fumbles, with the way the defense was improving in the second half, we could have won. In a pro-style shortening the game system, it comes to execution as coach shaw says.
By layman on 11.16.15 2:21pm
With a few exceptions, I don't see anything wrong with the playcalling.
Stanford only punted once, and if you allow the drives ending in turnovers to play out, we’re likely scoring at a highly efficient rate. A few missed plays here and there and we likely don’t settle for a few of the field goals. The running was pretty effective all day long, even if it didn’t result in the long TDs like it did against the UCLAs of the world.
By Tim Eckert-Fong on 11.16.15 2:31pm
Absolutely agree
But then that means:
1) Don’t kick only field goals. Keep the pressure on and take the lead. It’s possible to play ToP with a combination of play-action, screen and slant in combination with the run
and
2) Don’t fumble the ball away twice in the 4th quarter. Easier said than done, but that is the kind of deadly mistake you expect from a true Freshman.
My point is: the game plan may have been OK, but you have to be more aggressive and less error-prone versus a team that can score quickly and score big, especially when the defensive unit isn’t 2013/2014 caliber. One or the other (more aggressive in the red zone or fewer mistakes) would have won it.
By Jeff Tarnungus on 11.16.15 2:31pm
Blame the 3 plays before the FG calls
I absolutely don’t like going for anything other than 4th & 1 especially early in games. It takes points off the board and come back to bite like the ducks very well remember. It’s not like our kicker is incompetent, on the contrary he is good enough for shaw to trust him. But the problem with the FGs were the 3 calls before that 4th down.
First FG: costly holding penalty by hooper on a 2nd down, 3rd down was a conservative run to get closer to making the FG, right or wrong playcall that holding penalty was critical. It was 4th and longish and early in the game. Go for points to put some confidence
Second FG: Momentum to capitalize the turnover and we line up and run up the middle! I agree that’s our identity but Football psychology 101 says after a critical momentum swinging play always go for the shot to the endzone. I would said go playaction and let hogan improvise (ducks would not blitz and their secondary might not be prepared for it), 3rd down in that series was the PI that wasn’t given and was a good playcall as the touchdown later in the game showed. 4th & 2 here and kicking was again was the right call because we had just arrested the momentum on the defense and it would be pity to lose that series without points. It would also make the defense think we surrender.
Third FG: Brilliant 1-minute drive by a senior QB who controlled his offense and got to the FG range. Heading into the locker room with the lead. Excellent play-calls on that series. If Stanford were not worried about the bigger game-plan, they would have strutted out that package for the entire night and scored on the ducks secondary.
Fourth FG: Bad series of playcalls. Hogan runs were working in the first half despite pellum claiming that they will try to stop him. But they adjusted and we didn’t adjust too quickly. Despite being stopped once earlier in the drive, we went back to it again and their defense wasn’t fooled. That was the drive I screamed out of my head for going for it and down 28-23 at that stage, even a made FG wasn’t good for the course still down by 2. Either way your defense needed a stop and the old shaw way of thinking was that in a close game not going for points will lose us this game (he was right, if we made it then we win the game without a 2-point conversion). But the difference between instinctual coaches and conservative coaches is very apparent in tight games. Urban meyer did that in the NC game on a 4th&2 scramble against this very same team. It’s a moot if ukropina makes it as he has been known to, so can’t fight shaw for going for a FG but he missed one there to show his ability.
You heard him in that press conference. He goes for it on 4th downs they are up by 2 scores. In a close game they always go for FGs if they think they can make it or Punt the ball for field position: Flashback! It didn’t work against USC last year, Utah last year when williamson showed in OT he can make that 50 yard FG that we punted away, NW this year. Stanford plays the clock shorten the game system, so tiny errors are magnified with so few possesions. In tight games there is just extra scrutiny
By layman on 11.16.15 3:29pm
Another Flashback
Michigan State in the Rose Bowl. Kicking the FG and counting on the stop in the 4th quarter. We got the stop, but didn’t have the offensive creativity to move the ball in that final drive, and that was the end of the game. We get the touchdown on that drive, and we are tied at 24. We fail and get the stop, we can still tie with a TD. I thought there was a bit more of the swashbuckler in Shaw after certain moments this season. Maybe he and Leach can have a mutual blood transfusion. It might help both of them. Against Wazzu, the conservative call proved to be enough to win, but was almost lethal. Deciding to kick too many FGs vs. Oregon was lethal in the end. There may have been good reasons for each one of those decisions, but in aggregate they were too little against an explosive team like the Ducks.
By Jeff Tarnungus on 11.16.15 3:47pm
Wazzu Call
On 4th down, of course we had to kick the field goal. The issue was really the plays leading up to 4th down and whether they were designed to try to score a touchdown that would put the game out of reach (that is, Wazzu would need a touchdown to win rather than a field goal) or designed to avoid turning the ball over and optimize a field goal try. To be clear, the field goal strategy did not work. We left Wazzu with a great chance to beat us……and they should have.
The issue on going for it vs. field goals on 4th down is really separate from trying to score a touchdown on the previous three plays. I think we had to kick field goals on fourth down. But as pointed out above, we did a few things (absent the field goal at the end of the half) that made it harder to score a TD. I would add the first down play on the first field goal where Shaw had McCaffrey throw the ball to Hogan as we were gaining 5, 6, 8 yards per play consistently on the ground. All of a sudden, second and 10. Really?
The thing that really upsets me is the punts on 4th and short when we have a guy who can make it from 50 yards. At least we avoided that painful scenario.
By hoyaparanoia on 11.17.15 7:46am
Yes
That is actually what I meant: not just going for it on 4th down, but doing everything during the series to maximize chances for a TD. In the Wazzu game, the play-calling leading up to the FG baffled me. McCaffrey had set us up beautifully inside the ten; and a bit more tempo and creativity should have gotten us into the end-zone. I still think Shaw sometimes has too much faith in the ability of our defense to get stops. Getting the three points, taking the lead and counting on the defense can backfire. And it almost did in Pullman.
By Jeff Tarnungus on 11.17.15 7:52am
It's an NFL thing to put the game on your defense
Add Mora to the sample against wazzu where they score a touchdown and still couldnt prevent wazzu from GW drive. Shaw is ofcourse a better coach than Mora but just too conservative in close games.
By layman on 11.17.15 10:36am
Running Backs...
Any chance Barry J. bolts after the season to get more playing time somewhere else? With Christian and Love doing so well, Barry doesn’t really seem to fit in much. I’d imagine he could be the main RB at another P5 school.
By drkato9 on 11.17.15 4:50pm
Add scarlett to the mix
I think Barry finds himself in trouble because he doesn’t have that 1 quality that differentiates him from the others in the committee. Christian’s shiftiness, Love’s explosiveness, maybe Scarlett’s physicality is tough for barry to get that break. I hope he is happy wherever he decides to play next year.
By layman on 11.17.15 8:03pm
if he gets his Stanford degree, let him go back to OK St. to finish things out.
My OK St. friends were heartbroken when he chose Stanford, but they understood the choice.
They say their Cowboys still need to running back.
That may be a good way to wrap things up (if he has any interest of course).
By Cardinal-in-TX on 11.18.15 8:32am