I want to believe...

in the playoff scenario you’re describing, but I doubt it would be enough. I follow your logic about the committee liking Stanford over Florida… but just because they like a 1-loss Stanford over a 1-loss Florida… doesn’t mean they like a 2-loss Stanford over a 2-loss Florida. Plus, the scenario you describe has no SEC team in the playoffs… which most in the country would find a little hard to believe.

A BIG BIG win over Notre Dame is a must… I think they have to trounce them. And I think Oregon trouncing USC and Utah trouncing UCLA would also help. Alternatively, USC winning big over both Oregon and UCLA… looking really legit in the CCG and Stanford winning the rematch. (we need either Oregon to look really strong, or else to beat a team that beat them).

Basically I think Stanford would need scoring margins of like 20 for the next 3 games plus some help, plus the scenario you described.

More likely I think is if Michigan wins the Big 10 (just requires winning out). Then the Big 10 would likely have a 2-loss champion, and two 1-loss non-champs. Not sure if this scenario works, because if Harbaugh only barely beats tOSU, then tOSU might still go, and if UM convincingly beats tOSU then they might go. If it’s setup so that the committee can’t pick between tOSU and Michigan… might they pick Stanford just to avoid the heat? UM vs Stanford is a hard one for the committee too. Stanford probably would’ve beat Utah who beat Michigan. Michigan would’ve beat Northwestern who beat Stanford. Both UM and Stanford had close losses to good teams (MSU and Oregon). Just depends on how bad we beat ND. But maybe this is the excuse to let a second SEC team in.

That, or craziness in the Big-12, and the eventual Big-12 champ having some embarrassing loss, and this is only possible with osu. This is extremely unlikely.

The Big-10 scenario seems like the most likely to me. Stanford vs UM… use the Rose Bowl as the play in!!!!

By HailStanfordHail on 11.16.15 1:22pm

Michigan also needs Ohio State to beat Michigan State.

I think in your scenario Stanford should be ranked over 1-loss Ohio State because Ohio State will have not played a single competitive team until the final two weeks of their season. But it’s no guarantee.

Also, the author said that if Oklahoma wins out Iowa will be the only 1-loss non-champion. I think he’s forgetting that Oklahoma State would have 1 loss in that scenario.

Still Stanford’s projected record of 4-2 against current top 25 teams should certainly look better than the 2-1 of any Big 12 non-champion. It’s the same winning percentage with a longer resume.

Still, the odds against Stanford are not as bad as I was

By Klaymation on 11.16.15 2:07pm

… err meant to say "Not as bad as I was thinking after the loss".

By Klaymation on 11.16.15 2:26pm

The odds are not nearly as bad as I would have thought, either!

I was actually somewhat stunned to learn that Stanford’s odds of making the CFP, even after picking up its second loss, are somewhere between 9.7% and 11%. And if Stanford wins out, Stanford will be almost 50% to make the CFP as a two-loss team. Find out why in my most recent episode of Cardinal CounTree: http://www.cardinalsportsradio.com/episode/8739/cardinal-countree-stanford-playing-for-a-pac-12-championship-appearance-saturday/

By Matt Vassar on 11.19.15 9:51am

Yes, great point about Ohio State needing to lose out

You’re right that Ohio State needs to lose to Michigan State. Not only that, but Michigan State would also need to pick up a second loss as well (which would have to be to Penn State, its only remaining game after Ohio State). So, it’s a bit more difficult to get to a two-loss B1G champion, but definitely inside the realm of possibility.

By the way, I didn’t forget about Oklahoma State. Fast forward to the 30-minute mark of the show to hear me specifically talking about Oklahoma State, and why I believe they’ll end the season as a two-loss team, but even if they end the season as a non-champion one-loss team, it really doesn’t make a difference.

By Matt Vassar on 11.19.15 9:48am

Lots of "chaos" scenarios!

I like what you’re saying here, HailStanfordHail. And you’re right that there’s more than one way to skin a cat (or, in this case, more than one way to generate enough chaos for Stanford to get into the College Football Playoffs).

I actually considered the B1G scenario that you described when I was recording the show, but I thought that the SEC scenario was a lot cleaner (since it only involves two upsets: Florida State over Florida, Florida over Alabama, and that’s it).

The B1G scenario, on the other hand, requires quite a bit more: first, Michigan must win out. Second, Ohio State must lose out (losing BOTH of its two games to both of the Michigan teams), and then finally Michigan State needs to pick up a loss to Penn State. This is quite a bit more complicated than the SEC scenario that I described above, but nonetheless it’s definitely possible for the B1G to end up with a two-loss champion (just takes a little bit more than the SEC).

There’s plenty of chaos theory to be had, for sure! In fact, with all these "Chaos Theory" possibilities—believe it or not—Stanford is actually about 50-50 to make it into the College Football Playoffs if it finishes the season as two-loss team. To find out why, click below to listen to my most recent episode of Cardinal CounTree:

http://www.cardinalsportsradio.com/episode/8739/cardinal-countree-stanford-playing-for-a-pac-12-championship-appearance-saturday/

By Matt Vassar on 11.19.15 9:42am

Forget all the playoff talk and win the next 3 games. The magical season has passed. But.. 11 wins against 2 losses not bad. Hats off to the "D" for hanging in there despite losing 9 quality starters off that side of the ball. We have talent on the receiver side and why not throw the ball more?

By bodumb on 11.18.15 10:34am

I know - I don't understand why we're still talking about the Playoffs

I honestly think that if we made it at 11-2 over some 11-1 or 12-1 team, it’d be a little unfair to them. Plus, regardless, we should always set our sights on the Rose Bowl and not worry about that other stuff — otherwise amazing seasons feel like some kind of a disappointment.

By Visionary_ensemble on 11.18.15 1:12pm

Agree

I’m a traditionalist. Win the conference, go to the Rose Bowl, and the rest on top is just gravy.

By Jeff Tarnungus on 11.18.15 1:57pm

Yes, me too

The Rose Bowl is definitely a prestigious bowl, and one we should be proud to attend. But, you’re right, that a little bit of gravy on top isn’t bad, either.

By Matt Vassar on 11.19.15 9:59am

I agree to an extent...

I agree with you that an 11-2 conference champion should NOT be preferred over a 12-1 conference champion. Where I disagree with you, however, is that an 11-1 non-conference champion should generally be preferred over an 11-2 conference champion. Here’s why I disagree:

1. Rematch games are boring. If you didn’t win your conference championship, why do I want to see you play again against the same team that you already failed to beat during the regular season? Even if you do beat them the second time around, it really doesn’t prove anything since you’re now 1-1 against that team, but for some reason you get to advance and the team that beat you the first time around doesn’t?

2. Had you played in the conference championship, you might also be an 11-2 team. In fact, I’d say that the 11-1 team that did not play in a conference championship was lucky that it got to dodge another difficult team in the conference championship game. I’m far more impressed by a team that survives a difficult schedule (and, yes, that involves a conference championship) than one that doesn’t.

3. It’s just plain more interesting when more conferences are represented. Rather than pulling two teams from the same conference (including a non-conference champion), it’s infinitely more interesting when all the conferences play each other and we get to find out which conference truly is best.

By Matt Vassar on 11.19.15 9:58am

I agree! Hats off to the D!

By Matt Vassar on 11.19.15 9:52am