In this edition of Cardinal CounTree, Matt Vassar opens the show talking about how Stanford is playing for a Pac-12 Championship (which comes with it an opportunity for the Rose Bowl). He also discusses the offensive firepower from Cal and Stanford being the strongest in recent history. Plus, did you know that if Stanford wins out, its odds of reaching the College Football Playoffs as a two-loss team are about 50-50? Find out why in this edition of Cardinal CounTree.
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Comments
BTW, it helps that Michigan is my other alma mater.
maybe I’m wrong here … but the Big 10 scenario is not as complicated as you describe. I think you are using overall records for your logic. But, I believe conference record is what determines who goes to the Big 10 championship, just like in the Pac-12 (see more below).
As support for this, 538.com lists the odds of Michigan winning the conference at 14%. It would be a lot lower if you were correct. They give UM a 19% chance of winning out and the reduction to 14% just comes from the chance of MSU beating OSU.
My understanding is based on http://www.bigten.org/sports/m-footbl/archive/081011aaa.html. It’s funny the rules don’t explicitly say the first criteria for selection (that is, what determines a tie in the first place). But it does list "the [overall] records of the three tied teams" in (b)(1)… which would be useless if the overall "records" were the first criteria.
If Michigan wins out – they will have beaten Penn State and tOSU, and sit at 7-1 in the conference.
If tOSU beats MSU (losing to Michigan) – they will also be 7-1 in the conference
that makes MSU’s best possible conference record 6-2 (the Penn State game doesn’t matter).
the tiebreaker for a 2-way ties is the head to head … and Michigan wins that over tOSU in this scenario. All we need is this week to go as expected, then Go Blue!! This scenario requires exactly one upset. (reading through the noise, 538 thinks: OSU > UM > MSU > Iowa > PSU)
PS: I agree with those posters who say "just win out". That’s exactly where I was saying before the Oregon game. But I also think ND is over-rated, just like always.
By HailStanfordHail on 11.19.15 1:16pm
Shoot! You are SO right (and I was SO wrong)!
You’re right that I forgot that Michigan’s second loss was OOC (to Utah, of course — duh). And you’re also right that that makes it a bit simpler for the B1G to end up with a two-loss champion: Ohio State def. Michigan State, Michigan def. Ohio State (exactly as you said). Easy as that.
I’ll definitely make a correction in the upcoming episode and give you a shout-out for catching my error. I agree that this makes a big difference insofar as Stanford is concerned.
(Also, really cool that Jim Harbaugh has now coached both of your alma maters! I’m kinda jealous! ;))
By Matt Vassar on 11.19.15 1:50pm
Let's hope Saturday goes as expected and doesn't make it all moot!
Go Cardinal!
Go Blue!
For this week only, Go Buckeyes (can’t work up an exclamation for that one… how about … %*#@!).
By HailStanfordHail on 11.19.15 2:10pm
Matchup question: Goff vs Secondary?
I think we are the more talented team and from the way oregon ran through them, we should be able to control the game on offense provided we don’t turn the ball over. The question is obviously on the other side. Goff might not have progressed as much as everybody thought he would but he is still a good QB who can shred a defense on his day if he is in sync with his receivers.
With our lack of a pass rush giving him some time in the pocket, it seems to be a tough matchup. Ronnie is sure to be missed because he was lockdown on the right side and made the QBs go to their weaker side. Teams have picked on holder and now adding murphy to the company, the Cal WRs could possibly have a field day. It will be fascinating to see what answers lance anderson has. He might decide to blitz more as we saw against oregon as the game went on, but thats highly risky if the secondary cannot hold up. Cal WRs aren’t as physical as the Oregon WRs, so that might help in shedding blocks. I feel for Stanford to win easily this is the matchup they have to win. Otherwise it’s going to be another shootout
By layman on 11.19.15 3:49pm