Yesterday, I released an episode of Cardinal CounTree that made a rather simple argument: since there are four slots in the College Football Playoffs, and since there are five Power Five conferences, Stanford will likely only need to edge out ONE of the five Power Five conferences to sneak into the College Football Playoffs (even as a two-loss team). And guess what? After the most recent CFP rankings, Stanford is actually already ranked AHEAD of a potential conference champion from each and every single one of the other four Power Five conferences. So, if Stanford takes care of business, it's not that crazy to think that Stanford might be able to edge out just ONE of the other conferences.
I'll say that again: if ANY ONE of the below scenarios unfolds, Stanford will likely be ranked ahead of one of the other conference champions. I'll be live updating this article throughout the day so we can track together how the various chaos scenarios are unfolding:
Big 12: Stanford is currently ranked ahead of Oklahoma State, so that's who we're rooting for to win the Big 12 Championship. And with TCU already beating Baylor yesterday, all we need today is for Oklahoma State to upset Oklahoma.
Update: Oklahoma defeats Oklahoma State and clinches the Big 12 Championship. Chaos just wasn't meant to be in the Big 12 this year.
Big 10: Stanford is currently ranked ahead of Michigan, who is now our favorite team in the Big Ten (go Harbaugh!). Two dominoes need to fall in order for Michigan to move on to the Big Ten Championship. First, Michigan must beat Ohio State. Second, Penn State must upset Michigan State.
Update: No chaos in the B1G. After Ohio State's win, the B1G is guaranteed to have a top ten match up (Iowa vs. Michigan State).
SEC: We'll likely have to wait until next week to see if there's chaos in the SEC, but this one is very straight-forward: Florida is currently ranked behind Stanford, so we just need Florida to upset Alabama. Should that happen, Stanford will likely be ranked ahead of the SEC Champion Florida.
That said, there's actually a SECOND SEC chaos scenario that could emerge this week; it's a bit remoter, but it's nonetheless possible. First, we need Auburn to upset Alabama. That's going to be hard, but if that happens, next we'd just need Ole Miss to beat Mississippi State. Should that happen, the SEC Championship will be Florida vs. Ole Miss (and BOTH of those two teams are already ranked beneath Stanford).
Update: Alabama won and is off to the SEC Championship against Florida. That said, chaos hasn't yet been eradicated from the SEC as we root for Florida next week.
ACC: We'll need to wait until next week for this one to play out. But North Carolina is our team since they're currently ranked behind Stanford. If North Carolina upsets Clemson in the ACC Championship, the ACC champion will be ranked behind Stanford.
Pac-12: Finally, of course, it's worth noting that all of the above is predicated on Stanford defeating Notre Dame and winning the Pac-12 Championship game next week. If those two things don't that doesn't happen, it's game over for Stanford in the CFP.
Update: Stanford did, indeed, take care of Notre Dame in a true thriller of a game. Now Stanford is just one game away from finishing its business.
But if Stanford DOES, in fact, take care of business, then we're just looking for ANY ONE of the above conferences to falter. I'll be live tracking results throughout the day and letting you know how the chaos scenarios are settling.
END OF DAY UPDATE: None of the chaos scenarios for this week came through, BUT HOPE IS NOT LOST! Next week we still have two more potential chaos scenarios, and all Stanford fans should be rooting for the Tar Heels to upset Clemson in the ACC and the Gators to upset Alabama in the SEC. Should either of those two things happen, Stanford just might have a shot. But even if neither of those things happens, honestly, look at how far this team has come; the very worst that can happen for us in the Pac-12 Championship is that we're still playing for a Rose Bowl. And when the WORST-case scenario is that you're still playing for a Rose Bowl, that's pretty darn impressive. What a year this team has had, and I can only look forward to what comes next. Stay tuned!
Comments
I think the only hard part is that some of the teams have really good matchups ahead
While Michigan is ranked below Stanford, they have Ohio State then an undefeated Iowa, which I think trumps ND and the winner of UCLA-USC. I could definitely see Michigan leapfrogging Stanford if they win out.
Same with Florida. FSU would still be a good win, and beating Bama would be a huge boost, so I think a 1loss Florida jumps Stanford. But, if the SEC West winner is Ole Miss, then I definitely could see even a 1loss Florida SEC Champ being ranked below Stanford.
I definitely could see 1loss UNC ACC Champ still being ranked below Stanford though.
The Big 12 is Stanford’s biggest shot. Oklahoma State is already ranked below Stanford AND they only have one game left, which makes things a LOT easier for Stanford. I know they re-rank from week to week and throw out the previous poll, but I don’t see how the committee can put Stanford above Oklahoma State right now, and then with the addition of an Oklahoma win for Oklahoma State and then an ND AND and Pac12 Championship Game for Stanford, then switch the order. Oklahoma’s a very good win, but I don’t know if that win is better than ND and a Pac12 CG.
By John Nguyen on 11.28.15 8:52am
I could see Michigan Jumping
If things line up for them. But honestly they shouldnt. They played a weaker schedule, and they probably are not going to win their conference. However, I think they beat Northwestern, something Stanford did not, so you could make that argument. They are also currently down 14-3 to OSU with about 31 minutes left so their last/best/only? chance for a quality win this year is not looking great right now.
Florida could jump, but I think the committee right now is making a very clear distinction between the SEC east and the SEC west. The SEC east (FLa/georgia/missiouri/vandy/kentucky/south carolina/Tennesee) is kinda hot garbage right now and limping through that division does not exactly scream get them to the playoffs. Florida has a good record but they struggled to beat Kentucky, Eastern Carolina, Tennessee, vanderbilt, south carolina, and last week, Florida Atlantic, who in fact has a football team took the gators into overtime.
By nickdempsey on 11.28.15 10:31am
Baylor just lost
Now we need OkState to win!!
By HailStanfordHail on 11.28.15 10:37am
Let's not forget
That the committee at least last year placed a premium on winning the conference and/or winning a conference championship game which could play a huge role in the top 10 as it currently stands.
By nickdempsey on 11.28.15 10:43am
Doesn't look like there's going to be a Harbowl: Michigan getting plowed in the Big House right now
By Jeff Tarnungus on 11.28.15 11:59am
Big-10 chaos scenario is over now
OSU is beating Michigan… so the Iowa vs OSU/MSU winner definitely will go
By HailStanfordHail on 11.28.15 12:00pm
but on the other hand....
this is setting up a nice Rose Bowl opponent … the loser of one of the 3 above,,, probably tOSU
By HailStanfordHail on 11.28.15 12:02pm
Or Iowa
I think MSU thumps the Hawkeyes and gets to the CFP. Iowa would probably get the nod, simply because they are the runner up.
By Jeff Tarnungus on 11.28.15 12:05pm
I was thinking tOSU
because at that point it’s completely up to the Rose Bowl committee to choose. And who wouldn’t want tOSU over Iowa
By HailStanfordHail on 11.28.15 12:08pm
Good point
By Jeff Tarnungus on 11.28.15 12:09pm
But if MSU can't get by PSU today
tOSU would be back in the driver’s seat.
By Jeff Tarnungus on 11.28.15 12:08pm
so you're saying there's a chance
Here’s hoping said chaos continues in SEC and Big 12 and that you guys put a hurtin’ on ND tonight! Also, USC is pulling away from UCLA, so please beat them in the Pac 12 championship. Please. CFP without the Pac will be lame.
Good luck against the Irish! And go utes (squeakin out another victory against colorado..)
By ute33 on 11.28.15 3:29pm
So not a good day so far for us regarding the CFP. Perhaps tonight things will turn around.
Clemson and Alabama won (plus Derick Henry had a big day for the Heisman).
Ohio State and Iowa in the Big 10 CG.
Looks like own only plausible path is if OK St knocks off OK.
But we need to knock off ND first.
By Cardinal-in-TX on 11.28.15 4:22pm
Iowa plays MSU in the B10 CG
By Jaseface on 11.28.15 4:25pm
Oops! My mistake.
Still no good for us.
By Cardinal-in-TX on 11.28.15 4:28pm
It's all good.
They play next Saturday. If MSU wins (good chance of that, really), they’ve got a good argument to be in the Playoffs.
By Jaseface on 11.28.15 4:30pm
Also...
the Clemson and Alabama losses he described for the chaos scenarios above… were next week not today.
By HailStanfordHail on 11.28.15 4:31pm
CFP is still a distant dream
The loss at Oregon was costly in that regard.
But as it says in the post, when your worst-case scenario is to play for the Rose Bowl, it’s been a very good year. Having been down on the Farm in the years when a great darkness had descended upon the football team (early 1980s), the Shaw era (and the Harbaugh era that led to it) are an amazing gift. Ride the wave!
By g8tgod on 11.28.15 10:22pm
Rose Bowl isn't the Worst Case Scenario
We have to get by USC to secure that bowl game. Worst case scenario right now appears to be the Alamo Bowl; or maybe we even get an at-large New Year’s Six bowl game if we fall to the Trojans.
By Jeff Tarnungus on 11.29.15 1:31am
Important point Herr Tarmungus -- finish the job, Men!
No let up vs the Brush Heads.
They would love to tip toe in and pluck the Rose Bowl on the cheap, as an unworthy 4-loss team.
FINISH the job Cardinal.
NDAM is clearly a better team than USC. Our run game will work better than against NDAM. But I would let Hogan throw more than he did against NDAM — great game by Hogan last night, especially to Cajuste.
But Trojans are playing loose with nothing to lose.
By ADPATERSON on 11.29.15 4:55am
Agree about USC
And frankly, it’s one of the aspects of the conference championship game that I do not like. We have played them once already; and that should be enough for one year. Plus, USC is sitting at 6-3 in the conference, with all three losses coming to north teams (Stanford, Oregon and Washington), while Stanford beat all four south teams it played this year (Arizona, USC, UCLA and Colorado). All in all, Pac-12 north teams went 14-10 against the more highly-touted south; but with the CCG, the south representative still has a chance to sneak into the Rose Bowl.
I was hoping we would face Utah in the CCG, because that would have been a new facet to the schedule. Now, for the third time in as many CCG appearances, we have to face a team we have already played and beaten. I don’t think, however, that USC will be playing with nothing to lose. At this juncture in the season, they have as much to lose as we do, in fact even more. If they lose, they probably get relegated to a much lower bowl, as I would expect the Alamo to pick up Oregon, while USC would head to the Holiday Bowl. If we lose, there is still a chance we get an at-large bid to a New Year’s Six Bowl, depending upon what else transpires next weekend. But we just need to play our best and take care of business and not let any of that be a factor.
By Jeff Tarnungus on 11.29.15 6:06am