On a sunny first day of the year, over 94,000 people gathered to watch Stanford and Iowa meet in the Rose Bowl. While Stanford was favored by a sizable six points, expectations were still high for a quality, competetive game. On the first play from scrimmage, Christian McCaffrey shocked the nearly 100,000 in attendance and many more watching at home (although not that many) by catching a pass over the middle and darting a quick 75 yards for a Stanford score.
It may have been a surprising start for some, but many Stanford fans have seen this play result in huge gains since McCaffrey's arrival on the Farm.
Defining this play
There are obviously a lot of plays where Christian McCaffrey will go over the middle, but the route I'm referring to is basically a seam or angle route with a slight cut to lose his defender. Without knowing the actual playbook it's hard to know which of these are scripted or whether McCaffrey has an option on which way to go, but the plays I'll look at are all basically go routes towards the center of the field.
Some stats
Of McCaffrey's 62 career receptions, this play is responsible for 8 of the top 10 yardage gainers including the top 3. Here are some notable examples.
More of a visual person? Enjoy this 67 romp past talented USC linebacker Olajuwan Tucker. Or of course, the Rose Bowl stunner.
Why is this play so successful?
Stanford's offense is so talented it creates major mismatches
Between a rough 2014 campaign and a 2015 dominated by Christian McCaffrey, the rest of the offense never got its proper due. As we saw the last three games of 2014, Stanford's offense was capable of being dominant without McCaffrey. Sure, he played a role but he was on the field a fraction of the time with Remound Wright gaining the bulk of the running back responsibilities. That offense returned almost in full in 2015 and Stanford saw great play from its O-line and skill players. On many of the plays above, you see Stanford in more of a spread formation, putting other weapons like Bryce Love, Michael Rector, Devon Cajuste, Trent Irwin, Dalton Schultz, Austin Hooper, and more on the field. Most teams simply don't have the personnel to cover all those guys while leaving someone talented enough to handle McCaffrey.
Christian McCaffrey is really good
Like so good. This is the kind of analysis that keeps you coming back to RoT. Most pro teams and many college teams have a designated third down back, a guy capable of pass protecting and sneaking out to catch a pass. McCaffrey's rare combination of power runner and elite receiver makes him all the more dangerous out of the backfield. Teams can't play nickel and dime formations with him in the game or he and the powerful offensive line will run the ball with success. If he does go out for a pass and is matched up against a linebacker or even a safety, he's likely to win that matchup easily and with the talent around him, he's likely to see single coverage on these plays. Plus, he's so good even in the event a team can dedicate a cover corner or nickel against him, McCaffrey is still likely to win this matchup. Honestly, if the NCAA were to ban McCaffrey from playing running back, I think he'd immediately become Stanford's best wideout. That's rare, and it's the kind of versatility that makes him such a weapon.
Stanford doesn't overrun this play
We've seen Stanford overuse successful plays before, but with the dynamic nature of the Stanford offense combined with the desire to be methodical in their movement, Stanford doesn't use this play too often. It's often a surprise and teams can't constantly play the proper personnel to defend this play.
Final thoughts
-This is a great play, and easily my favorite in Stanford's arsenal. Much of Stanford's success in graduating Kevin Hogan and implementing a new quarterback will be dictated by the offense's ability to be dynamic. Look for this play in 2016, but also look for Chryst or Burns to go to other skill players with the ball. You can bet defenses will key in on McCaffrey even more than they did in 2015.
-One of the arguments we often saw from pro-Derrick Henry/anti-Christian McCaffrey Heisman fans was that anyone could run behind Stanford's offensive line. I don't want to take anything away from Derrick Henry who was plenty deserving of the award but the fact that people argued that Henry could have done what McCaffrey will tell you they didn't watch Stanford play. I don't think it's possible to be more dissimilar in style, and McCaffrey is unique in the way he dominates.