The USC Trojans defeated the Stanford Cardinal for the second time this season. This time the game was much closer but the stakes were much higher. The Trojans won their first Pac-12 Championship since 2008. The Trojans were the favorite to win the Conference since the preseason but they were also picked to make the playoffs. The Trojans underperformed all season and a blowout against Notre Dame knocked them out of contention for the College Football Playoff.
Bryce Love hobbled with the ankle injury had 22 carries for 125 yards and a touchdown. 52 of those 125 yards came on one run, however, and USC once again contained Love to a mere 73 yards on 21 carries the rest of the game. Once again Love would have to frequently check out of the game due to the pain in his ankle.
After a hyper efficient and effective game against the Irish last week Stanford quarterback K.J. Costello went a mere 10 for 22 and 192 yards and two touchdowns. A 45 yard pass to JJ Arcega-Whiteside and a 28 yard connection to Kaden Smith account for almost half of Costello’s passing yards.
To the Trojans credit they dramatically cut down on the number of mistakes they normally make as one of the worst teams in turnovers and penalty yardage. The few mistakes they did make Stanford was unable to capitalize on. USC only had one turnover when Stephen Carr fumbled the ball and Stanford recovered at the USC 45 but the Cardinal were unable to turn it into points.
USC would punt on their ensuing possession and Stanford took over at the Trojans 33 with 13:55 left in regulation. Stanford would gain 32 of the 33 yards. The Cardinal trailed 24-21 facing fourth and goal at the USC one yard line. Instead of going for the easy 3 points and the tie, David Shaw opted to bring in the jumbo package that had been wildly successful all year. The Trojans stuffed them.
Some may find this to be a controversial decision. Certainly in hindsight it seems like they should have went for the tie, but the jumbo package was certainly a high percentage play, and worst case scenario USC takes over at the one. The defense would just need to hold and Stanford would get another shot. Sam Darnold however, marched his team down the field for the score.
Stanford would get another touchdown to bring the game back to three but they failed to pickup the onside kick. USC would finish out the game by picking up the first down.
Comments
Check your game theory and game sense
(Skip to the last 2 paragraphs if you don’t want the full analysis)
There isn’t much time left in the game, so given how slowly each team drives down the field, we can reasonably forecast the possibilities to the end of the game. There are many things that can happen, but the overwhelmingly most likely scenarios are
0. On 4th and 1, in order of likelihood of success, we score
0a. FG (Stanford 24, USC 24)
0b. TD (Stanford 28, USC 24)
0c. Nothing (Stanford 21, USC 24)
1. They get the ball back to compile a drive. Given how methodically they can drive and that they’ll be on their best behavior, the most likely outcomes for them in order are
0a.1a. TD (Stanford 24, USC 31)
0a.1b. FG (Stanford 24, USC 27)
0a.1c. Nothing (Stanford 24, USC 24)
0b.1a. TD (Stanford 28, USC 31)
0b.1b. Nothing (Stanford 28, USC 24)
0c.1a. TD (Stanford 21, USC 31)
0c.1b. FG (Stanford 21, USC 27)
0c.1c. Nothing (Stanford 21, USC 24)
2. We get the ball back to compile a drive. If we’re behind we are highly incentivized and
at our most dangerous in these situations, so while the odds aren’t overwhelmingly likely that we score, they are in our favor. If we’re ahead or tied we are likely in full turtle mode, so less likely to score. Given the progression of the game, the options ranked by likelihood are
0a.1a.2a. TD (Stanford 31, USC 31) *
0a.1a.2b. Nothing (Stanford 31, USC 31) *
0a.1b.2a. TD (Stanford 31, USC 27) ^^
0a.1b.2b. FG (Stanford 27, USC 27) *
0a.1b.2c. Nothing (Stanford 24, USC 27)
0a.1c.2a. Nothing (Stanford 24, USC 24) *
0a.1c.2b. FG (Stanford 27, USC 24) ^
0a.1c.2c. TD (Stanford 31, USC 24) ^
0b.1a.2a. TD (Stanford 35, USC 31) ^^
0b.1a.2b. FG (Stanford 31, USC 31) *
0b.1a.2c. Nothing (Stanford 28, USC 31)
0b.1b.2a. Nothing (Stanford 28, USC 24) ^
0b.1b.2b. FG (Stanford 31, USC 24) ^
0b.1b.2c. TD (Stanford 35, USC 24) ^^
0c.1a.2a. TD (Stanford 28, USC 31)
0c.1a.2b. Nothing (Stanford 21, USC 31)
0c.1b.2a. TD (Stanford 28, USC 27) ^^
0c.1b.2b. Nothing (Stanford 21, USC 27)
0c.1c. FG (Stanford 24, USC 24) *
0c.1c. TD (Stanford 28, USC 24) ^^
0c.1c. Nothing (Stanford 21, USC 24)
3. They get the ball back with limited time. I’m going to give Shaw his wet dream and say that it’s very likely that we hold them from scoring here; we tend to be very good in these situations. Thus, check the above to determine the game outcome. I’ve highlighted scenarios where we win with ^^ and scenarios where it goes into OT with *.
If we go for a FG on the 4th and 1, there are:
a. 1 moderately likely and 2 unlikely scenarios where we win
b. 2 likely where we go to OT and 2 unlikely
c. 1 unlikely where we lose
If we go for a TD and make it, there are:
a. 1 likely scenarios where we win + 2 moderately likely and 1 unlikely
b. 1 moderately likely where we go to OT
c. 1 unlikely where we lose
If we score no points there are:
a. 1 moderately likely and 1 unlikely scenarios where we win
b. 1 unlikely where we go to OT
c. 2 likely and 2 unlikely where we lose
The critical aspect in all of this is in evaluating the likelihood of a FG vs a TD. By going for the TD we’re essentially trading OT scenarios for win scenarios at a large risk for losses (if we don’t get the TD). I will mention that with our TE’s our chances in OT are pretty good.
Given the discombobulated circus over the last 5-7 minutes, I’d argue the TD was not as likely as we would have liked. We didn’t know anything about Toner, but Mr. Print Cartridge has been really damn good all season, so I’d count the FG as nearly automatic. Shaw didn’t feel the tenor of the game correctly and screwed up the call. Averting being down by 2 scores was more important than being up vs. tied.
By hpaskov on 12.01.17 10:11pm
All due respect to California
But move aside — usc is prime target #1. I hate that they’re once again the anointed saviors of the PAC. Sure they’re a talented team and we shot ourselves in the foot repeatedly, but jeez one play or two and we beat them. Whether the arrogant trojans like it or not, this rivalry is on.
By reportcard on 12.01.17 11:59pm
They're a better team right now
than we are, and they are also much healthier than we are, and they are rested. We were a better team than the one that played them in September and that showed in both the game and the result, and we still could have beaten them even though they are better (their OL is clearly better than ours, for example). It’s what I expected — a close Trojan win inside of 7 points — and also pretty damned close to how Vegas saw this game from the beginning. Can’t really be that disappointed in this result, given the wild ups and downs of this season for our team (I mean, folks, we almost lost to Oregon State, in which case we wouldn’t have even been in this game). Costello has a bright future unless he is upstaged by Mills. We likely lose Love. Other positions will be better and more experienced next year so we should actually be improved next year over this year so there’s that to look forward to as well.
Overall, yes it would have been great to win, and yes, it sucks when it is so close, but they were better than our team this year, even if only a bit better.
By Brendan Ross on 12.02.17 1:07am
I have been stewing about this game all morning
I had a chance to watch a replay and was frustrated at the opportunities we let slip from our grasp. Yes, maybe in a meta-view of the game and the season, the result is in line with the talent and capabilities of this team; but we were in this game and had a chance to win it; and I can only say that lack of execution on key plays and lack of creativity in key situations led to this loss. USC actually gave us the rope to hang them with; and we couldn’t use it.
Every year there seems to be a key sequence in a game where I wonder why we have such lack of imagination on offense. And that goal-line stand with eight minutes to go in the 4th quarter is this year’s sequence. Five yards and four downs to get into the end-zone, and the best we can come up with is run into the pile four times in a row. And this against a defensive front that our O-line struggled with all night! With 22 players focused on six square inches of grass, aren’t there other options? I had to recall that beautiful TD from Hogan to Schultz in the Colorado game two years ago. In a similar situation, we were close to the end-zone. We were up 14-7 with 1:51 to play in the first half; and we were 4th and 2 at the Colorado 6 yard-line. Shaw decided to go for it; and all bodies were bunched up around the center. Everybody was expecting a typical jumbo package lunge. But when Hogan took the ball, he faked to the running back and just lofted the ball in a play-action move over the pile to Dalton Schultz standing unguarded in the end-zone. It was a thing of beauty, and so creative. If you want to see that play, here it is (ninth video in this sequence): http://www.espn.com/college-football/video?gameId=400757070 Do we now only have two red-zone plays, the fade and the smash? Shaw was right to go for it, and I defend his aggressive call. But why didn’t he do something else on one or two of those downs to soften up the defensive front-line? USC knew exactly what we were going to do on that 4th down. It might have worked; but somebody on the right side missed a blocking assignment; and, as it turned out, that was the ball game.
All that said, I am not sure we would have belonged in a NY6 bowl. Our defense was spotty all game; our O-line struggled; their defense was in Costello’s face. Whoever we get in the Holiday Bowl may be just the match we need. I am not sure a Fiesta Bowl against Ohio State or Wisconsin would have ended well.
Looking forward, I am not overly optimistic about 2018. I think our offense will be fine as Costello develops and the young O-line gets some seasoning. If the rumors surrounding Nall are substantive, and he really is interested in a graduate transfer, that would be a huge boost to the backfield, though I think Scarlett and Speights and Wedington are also a talented trio that can fill in for Love (assuming Love departs to the NFL). The WR and tight end corps will also be strong. My big concern is the defense. Phillips is most likely gone; and I see nobody in the depth chart to fill that gaping hole. Just looking at the returning talent, I don’t think we have ever been more threadbare in the front seven. Our recruiting in this area has been totally lacking. So unless some redshirt freshmen come on strong (but who?), the defensive front will be our weakest link in 2018. Add to that the tough schedule with road games against Washington, Oregon, UCLA and Notre Dame, and you have a recipe for a 6-6 season. Just looking at the Pac-12, UCLA and Oregon should be on the rise. Washington and USC will remain elite. Utah should be stable. WSU could be trending down, especially if Leach leaves. ASU may also be trending down. Cal should be rising, and we have to play them in Memorial Stadium in 2018. Not an easy row to hoe next year. Anybody have a different read on 2018? I am open to optimistic views, but right now I see a shaky defense, and that could make for a long season.
By Jeff Tarnungus on 12.02.17 6:28am
Looks more 8-4 for sure
Definitely a lot concerned about the defense. Just 1 Solomon Thomas dropped us from respectable to average. I shudder to think about losing Harry. The old adage that defense wins championships, defense travels on the road, defense keeps you in games are all very valid especially for a pro-style team that prides on shortening the game with efficiency.
But I am definitely very optimistic about the offense. Compared to the uncertainty of the last 2 yrs, I can clearly see Costello progressing further to elite QB and his weapons can only get crazy good. Look out for breakout seasons from Simi fehoko a wide out who will join after his mission and wedington who will be the next do it all guy in our offense.
The road is definitely tough but with Washington losing their DL, wazzu + Oregon possibly losing coach, the north is equally chaotic. USC quietly stock piled some great DL and should dominate a couple of years but we could catch them early enough at home to escape them.
The return to the elite unfortunately starts on the road in recruiting. Need more talented DL and definitely need to get that LB corps (by the way USC had a crazy good duo yesterday in cam Smith and nwosu) become the force of this team.
By layman on 12.02.17 5:18pm
Does this encourage you Jeff?
By layman on 12.05.17 10:41pm
Yes, but I am not so worried about the offense
If Love comes back, I think we will be spectacular on offense. If he leaves for the NFL, I think we will be very good.
As mentioned, my concerns are about our front seven. It’s no secret that Shaw-ball is predicated on a very strong defense; and many of Shaw’s instinctive decisions assume our defense will get the stop when the game is on the line. That did not work in a few key situations this year. I sure hope we have some talent to reload. Losing Phillips will be a huge blow. Theoretically, he could come back, but I don’t expect him to take advantage of his final year of eligibility.
The stat on Costello is impressive. I think his ceiling is very high. I just hope Shaw and the new OC also get him using the TEs more on passes between 7 and 15 yards as part of our traditional TOP football.
By Jeff Tarnungus on 12.06.17 12:46am
This year and next
Yes, it was disappointing to lose, but it was nice to see the Stanford team and coaches play up to the level of their talent (unlike San Diego State, Oregon State, Washington State, and Cal). It is easy to second guess the failed goal line run, but a more experienced Costello next year will likely read the defense more effectively, pull the ball out and waltz in with a naked bootleg, just as Hogan often did. SC’s offensive line, defensive backs, quarterback, and running backs simply played better. Nothing to be ashamed of if you’re Stanford.
And, as usual, I am not nearly as pessimistic about next year. Costello is the real deal and will only improve, backed by Mills, probably the best high school quarterback in his class. The line will include Little, Herbig, and Sarell, all future NFL players. Hamilton adds insurance at the tackle position. Chaffin seems more than capable as the center but, if not, Dalman certainly has the pedigree at center. If Fanaika returns, that gives them a very solid O-line. The tight ends will be terrific, period. Even if Irwin and Arcega-Whiteside depart, the receiver cupboard is hardly bare, with Weddington and St. Brown. Running back is the biggest question mark on offense. But Speights, who can really block, will get better. If Scarlett makes the same improvement next year as he did this year, he should be good. Heimuli will probably replace Marks at fullback and he is a tank. Finally, Toner is an excellent kicker. So Stanford will score points on everyone they face next year.
I agree, defense is the question, particular if Darnold returns, Chip Kelley adds speed to UCLA, and Oregon’s QB stays healthy. But Holder should return (as should Meeks, if he really wants to improve enough to make the NFL) and there remains a lot of good, experience players at defensive back. Buncom should fill one safety position more than adequately. On the d-line, Dylan Jackson should improve and Swann seems to be a capable replacement for Cotton. Ryan Johnson, is supposed to be quite good as well at defensive end. We lose Phillips, but there are some good prospects to replace him: Wade-Perry (a huge tackle) and Williams. So that leaves linebacker as the obvious issue and, until Okereke’s emergence, was a significant weakness this year. But I think Barton will return as the main inside guy and he showed some genuine promise before being hurt. Robinson and Toohill both have talent and should improve on the outside. I’m not impressed by Perez at all (even before his bonehead penalty in the SC game), and Branch is just too small. So that other inside linebacker seems to be the biggest hole. It certainly won’t be at punter if Bailey comes back. He should be the front runner for the Ray Guy award.
So, get that 10th win in the Holiday Bowl (or wherever), with a healthy Bryce Love, then use that as a springboard for next year.
By SU74 on 12.02.17 9:39am