Stanford has fallen out of favor during their midseason stretch.
After climbing to seventh in the AP poll, the Cardinal dropped two straight games versus Notre Dame and Utah, and if not for a miraculous comeback in Eugene, David Shaw’s team would be 4-3; instead, they are 5-2. Following consecutive losses, early hopes of making the playoff were dismissed quickly, and Bryce Love’s Heisman hype is a distant memory.
But still, after all that, the Cardinal control their own destiny, and I believe the Rose Bowl is still a realistic hope for this season. I’m willing to bet as Stanford’s two most important games of the year arrive David Shaw will make adjustments.
Last year, the team started off 1-2. We wrote off the Cardinal early before Shaw’s team got hot and finished the year 9-3. In the process, Shaw benched his starting quarterback in favor of K.J. Costello, changed the defensive scheme, and spiced up the offense. This year, I believe he’ll do the same (but this time, no QB benching will be necessary).
I believe that Shaw has some sort of trick up his sleeve. I don’t know what, but history says that’s what Stanford will do.
The offense has not come close to reaching preseason expectations. The Bryce Love we saw last year is nowhere to be seen while the present-day Bryce Love is constantly being snagged by his ankle injury. Don’t blame Love for struggling though. Blame the offensive line.
Prior to the ASU game, Stanford ranked 127th in rushing offense. Clearly, running the ball up the middle is not working. Although crippled with injuries, the offensive line continues to be pushed around, and Stanford is not winning the battle of the trenches. Shaw is not going to continue to jam it up the middle. When he had Christian McCaffrey, Shaw had a wide variety of complex plays that kept the defense guessing. Fans saw screens, play action passes, and passes up the middle. I think this part of the playbook still exists, and Shaw is choosing to utilize it in a bigger game to catch his opponent off guard.
Against Arizona State, we saw Cameron Scarlett collect a screen pass and break away to the end zone before the play was called back. Maybe Shaw is hesitant to call similar plays because he’s waiting for a certain player to return. Perhaps that person is Connor Wedington, who hasn’t suited up since week one. Stanford does not disclose injuries, but Shaw has not ruled Wedington out for the year.
Wedington was a four star recruit who played as a true freshman, playing running back and slot receiver in his first season. In the spring game, Wedington finished with five receptions and 61 yards as well as a touchdown. Wedington might just be the next Christian McCaffrey, and maybe it’s no coincidence that he wears the same number as the Stanford great.
Stanford traditionally finishes their season strong. Mainly because to start the year, David Shaw does not reveal a large part of the playbook. It’s why the team took down Washington and Notre Dame last season. It’s why they won the North.
Stanford plays Washington State next. Maybe this will be the game Wedington returns, giving Stanford the extra edge on offense to keep the defense guessing. Let’s not give up yet Stanford fans, and remember the Cardinal still control their own destiny.
Comments
Totally agree Stanford still controls its own destiny
Whether they can get the job done with a hobbled Love is another matter, but I also agree that Shaw can obstinately hold back on adjustments until just the last minute to try to save a season. Maybe he does that because he can only do one adjustment per season, but whatever, he does have a good record as a coach.
Would love to see Wedington this weekend.
By worldblee on 10.22.18 10:32am
Counterpoint
Certainly it’s not time to "give up", at 5-2, and with the North still theoretically in play.
However, a Renaissance with this team seems unlikely. We are looking at similar problems to the ones we faced in 2014 in terms subpar OL play overall — that year it was due to new players, whereas this year it appears due to players playing semi-injured or recovering from injuries, and a lack of depth, which we have always struggled with. In 2014, the OL eventually jelled together later in the season, and the offensive weapons could shine, as they did in the last 3 games of that season, which turned out to be a harbinger for the great 2015 campaign. This season, however, it really does seem to be about the health of the players on the OL and a lack of depth, and I don’t see that really changing as the season moves along to any substantial degree, because injury recovery is pretty hard to do when you’re playing every week, as our guys are. I agree that the issue isn’t Love (he had tons of yards last year with a bad ankle), it’s the line and how their performance in particular doesn’t mesh with his style of RB. One also wonders whether the change in OL coaching is having an impact.
I don’t like how we match in the trenches against the Washingtons. Wazzu has very good line play, as they showed the country on Saturday night. I doubt our defense will do much better than Oregon’s did at slowing down Winshew and their receivers, given our limitations this season on the defensive front and our overall lack of pressure on QBs this season. That means we will have to score to keep up, and we haven’t really done that in any game. I think it isn’t a great matchup for us this year with the specific issues we are facing. And against UW, I simply don’t see out OL/DL matching up with theirs, either. Yes, they are not quite as good as they have been in recent years, but their OL/DL play is mostly looking better than ours generally is.
I think we will beat Oregon State, I think we have a very good chance against Cal as well, still, even with their improvement. I don’t think anyone knows enough about who UCLA really is yet to judge what kind of challenge they will present at the end of the season, five weeks from now, because they started badly and have steadily improved, having played well against Washington, and then beating Cal and Arizona. Jury’s out on what kind of a challenge they will present at the end of next month.
Again, I don’t think we throw in the towel … yet. I just don’t like our chances against the Washingtons, given what our specific weaknesses are and how they don’t match up very well against either of those teams.
By Brendan Ross on 10.22.18 10:52am
Tend to agree.
This is a likely cause. When I’ve tried to watch some of the failed runs, a lot of it is people don’t seem to be blocking the right defenders (LB’s just come in untouched) or they aren’t blocking with the right technique (letting the defender get an outside shoulder to cut off the edge). Feels like the OL is not all on the same page. Another possible culprit could be the center not making the right blocking calls or KJ not reading the defense correctly before snap. It’s hard to know as a spectator.
WSU has a lot of undersized linemen. You’d think we could just blow WSU off the ball, but watching the D-line last year, WSU did a lot of slanting with quicker smaller D-linemen. This allowed them to get a LOT of penetration. When I watched WSU play UW, that stuff didn’t work because UW ran a bunch of counters and misdirection plays—line blocking left, but Browning hands the ball to the RB going right. WSU’s D-line speed takes them out of the play. Gaskin also did a lot more dancing, running up the line, then trying to scoot outside after sucking the linebackers into the gaps. None of our backs really use that technique, though Scarlet showed some nice change of direction against ASU.
UW, we ran on fairly well last year. UW seems to rely more on power and positioning rather than speed and disruption. I think we actually match up better against UW’s line rather than WSU’s.
The real challenge against WSU is going to be our defense. WSU has a lot of very predictable plays. WSU’s main tactic to throw a lot of quick outs to the RB to neutralize blitzing. This also spreads out LB’s and allows the RB to take a hand off and get away with a run or three. Then, when the defense gives up on blitzing, WSU throws it downfield. I really expect Lance Anderson to put a LB on those RBs and deny those quick outs. Leach also loves to use that RB as a distraction and then throw to the opposite side of the field. I hope Akina and Adebo were watching that and Adebo steps in front of one of those. It’s going to be soul-crushing if Minshew is allowed to repeatedly hit that flair.
I think Oregon made the mistake of not denying the RB pass. If Anderson can get our outside linebackers to cover the RB, this might buy time for pressure on Minshew. WSU is not a team I would try and blitz. Minshew is too good for that.
The most challenging thing about WSU is that throwing the ball is their main schtick. Even if we built up a two or three possession lead on them, it won’t throw off their offense, like it would for a UW or Utah who do a lot of running.
IMO, we match up better against UW than we do against WSU. WSU has the potential to route us, if our DB’s aren’t on it.
So yeah, Shaw & Co. will earn their money if we were to win these games.
By Blackjoy on 10.22.18 11:37am
Agree that we match up better with UW than with Wazzu
Unfortunately, we have UW in Seattle; and that didn’t go very well in 2016.
Wazzu lost their Defensive Coordinator (Grinch) to Ohio State, but they have maintained the Speed-D schemes under their new coordinator Tracy Claeys; and this Speed-D has neutered our traditional running game three years in a row. We got 93 yards on the ground last year; 61 in 2016; and even though we managed 226 yards of rushing in 2015, 112 of those yards came from Hogan in the second half after an entire first half of McCaffrey getting nowhere. I don’t think we can expect Costello to do the same thing this year.
The key in Saturday’s game will be to keep Minshew off the field. If we cannot dominate TOP, we will get into a shoot-out; and the Stanford system is not built for shoot-outs.
One hope I have is that Leach’s teams tend to have one inexplicably ugly game every year. Last year, it was vs. Cal when they visited Berkeley as a top ten team. Maybe, just maybe, they have that game against us this year. Some turnovers in our favor would certainly help.
To charliefoy: we did not reel off nine straight wins after our 1-2 start last year. There was a loss in there; and it was to none other than Leach’s Cougs.
By Jeff Tarnungus on 10.22.18 1:21pm
Was really disappointed with lack of QB runs last year vs WSU
Well, that game we lost our two cornerbacks and the Huskies had John Ross II and we had Ryan Burns, so I’m hoping we are slightly better off this year.
Shaw going to the keeper was one of his savant moves of the year. I was so disappointed he did not do that in subsequent years. The QB keepers were the perfect counter to WSU’s over-pursuit of Love.
If it were not for the fact we don’t appear to have a back-up QB, I would totally run Costello. Costello can move a in straight line and the real reason you do it, is to keep WSU guessing. I would run it early. Try and throw off the WSU DC. I would even try and bring in Richardson to run it.
The WSU D-line is going to be hard to pass block. Shaw has got to find a way to use their small D-linemen against them. I really think this game will come down to the play-calling or rather the game-plan/preparation for the WSU D-line. Shaw does not have any excuses this year. We’ve seen that WSU defense scheme three years now.
By Blackjoy on 10.22.18 2:37pm
Agree about the calling
It’s not like we don’t know what WSU is going to do — we know very well what they’re going to do, both sides of the ball. So it really is going to come down to whether we have answers this year … or not.
By Brendan Ross on 10.22.18 2:56pm
Wow blackjoy I’m impressed to see your calling out shaw no more excuses and putting the onus
On playcalling this week. Unfortunately I think shaw will get outschemed again by that pirate leach. It’s happed three years in a row and i don’t think shaw has changed his thinking, staff, or playcalling process enough to beat WSU. If anything, his staff has deteriorated with Bloomgren gone and the new o line coach not ready yet.
WSUs 3-0 record against us is emblematic of how a good scheme that maximizes 2-3 star talent can consistently beat an average scheme with 4 star talent.
WSU and utah have had our number for many years now, and I don’t see enough change on or side to break that trend.
Pls prove me wrong shaw.
By stanford6thman on 10.23.18 1:56am
Sorry WSUs 2-0 record not 3-0. Feels like 3-0
By stanford6thman on 10.23.18 1:59am
We also were missing our corners vs. Wazzu back in 2016 at home
And we got blitzed.
By Jeff Tarnungus on 10.23.18 12:15pm
Pretty sure I had that helpless feeling watching WSU completely
Out scheme our running game in 2016. Think that’s when I started to feel like shaw needed to make some changes
By stanford6thman on 10.23.18 10:01pm
Yes
I would also say we match better with UW but for playing in Montlake this year.
With WSU there’s always the possibility of a let-down. Last week was the biggest week in the history of WSU football, probably, not just the game but the before and the after as well — total mayhem before and after, nothing ever quite like that scene there. I think that makes some kind of a letdown more likely than under "normal" circumstances — we will see.
By Brendan Ross on 10.22.18 2:55pm
I'm more impressed by the knowledgeable comments this week than the team this year.
Wow, a lot of you have spent some time analyzing WSU and your comments all seem on the mark. Even though the Oregon game was indeed the biggest game in Pullman in years, Leach is too good a coach to permit much of a letdown. Even more than Stanford, he can just taste a Pac 12 North title and a Pac 12 title. And they are a good team with a terrific quarterback. So can we really expect either a savior in Weddington or new pages from the playbook? No, maybe some new plays, but Shaw is still Shaw. Having said that, however, the most telling thing that happened last week was late in the game when Shaw went onto the field to yell at his linemen (according to the announcers for not lining up quickly and correctly). He is clearly no longer buying the excuses of a beat up offensive line. (Hamilton’s injury history this year, for example, had nothing to do with his boneheaded penalty on a sure touchdown run.) Maybe, just maybe, this is what they need — some tough love for once. If they don’t let WSU run away with the game in the first half, they can beat this team. And I agree with several above, that WSU has shown its cards for a few years now. Stanford has no reason not to be ready.
By SU74 on 10.22.18 5:30pm
Ditto on the great comments from y'all
The thing that Wazzu’s Speed D does so well this year and last couple years is havoc and getting in the backfield, which is why, I think, Stanford’s offense has had difficulty.
Interesting factoid is in the S&P stats Stanford’s adjusted pace of their offense ranks dead last at 130th; Cougs are runners up at 129th. It’s a weird thing but the WSU offense is both able to control possession and wear down a defense in addition to putting up points in a hurry.
Also from what I’ve seen in the games I’ve watched of the Cards, I really like Cameron Scarlett. Is most of the fanbase down on him? If Shaw decided to switch things up, I think Stanford has one of the best aerial attacks in the P12- Arcega-Whiteside, Parkinson, and Irwin are big physical WRs that can catch very well.
Here’s to an entertaining game!
By malinowskiski on 10.23.18 8:29am
Yes, your second point is particularly relevant
One of the best antidote’s for the Speed-D is fast pace of play, because there is less time for the constant shifting and confusion this causes. But Shaw’s MO has always been to maintain a slow pace and maximize TOP; but, as you note, that plays into the strengths of the Speed-D. I have to assume he has noticed; but I am not sure it will change his MO.
Scarlett is a good back. But he is not Bryce Love, does not have the same explosiveness. Scarlett has primarily found his role as a kick returner and a short-yardage back. In Love’s absence, he has been one of two feature backs (the other being Trevor Speights). The two of them carried most of the load in the games Love did not play in.
Stanford and Wazzu have systems that are polar opposites; and this certainly stems from the coaches, who inhabit those opposite poles. This is a game in which anything could happen. But I would give the edge to the Cougs at this point simply because our D isn’t quite as solid as it has been in recent years. Offensively, if Shaw trusts the passing game, I think Stanford will be dangerous; if he tries to run into the Speed-D buzz-saw, which he did the last three years, it could be a long evening for the Stanford faithful. Turnovers, mistakes and penalties will probably be decisive.
By Jeff Tarnungus on 10.23.18 12:30pm