The season has been grim for the Stanford Cardinal, with tough losses to the Utah Utes and Notre Dame Fighting Irish, followed by a victory which required a team that never turns the ball over.
Confidence for the Cardinal to take the PAC-12 title is shaky at best, worse when considering the competition in the North includes Washington State and Washington, probably the best two teams in the conference.
But the path for Stanford to take the conference is still very much alive; here is how they win the conference.
1 - The Washington Huskies and Washington State Cougars cannot run the table
Washington State plays Stanford, California, Colorado, Arizona and finishes with the Apple Bowl. The Huskies run up against California, Stanford, Oregon State and (of course) close with the Apple Bowl.
Headed into the weekend, Stanford and WSU tie for second behind the Huskies. If Stanford can find a way to beat the Cougars, then turning around to beat the Huskies, would easily snatch them the North. As it stands in the real world, Stanford needs two things to happen:
- Beat WSU and watch the Huskies falter twice down the stretch.
- Beat the Huskies, who then beat the Cougars to end 2018.
Stanford is looking for a victory against one of these teams, while both find losses as the season closes out. It seems to be a tall task, but then again the No. 2 team has lost in consecutive weeks. in the words of NBA star Kevin Garnett - “Anything’s possible!”
2 - Do the next best thing to running the table
Two games against the best teams this side of the conference will keep Stanford from running the table. But the combined records of the California Golden Bears, Oregon State Beavers and UCLA Bruins (their other three opponents) is a grand 7-14.
Stanford will also stay home against the Cougars and Oregon State, meaning the Huskies are by far their most challenging road game left on the 2018 slate. Of the five remaining contests, two (UCLA and Oregon State) teams allow an average of 30 points per game.
Playing a weak defense is especially crucial for Stanford, as every opponent that Stanford plays, outside of UCLA, averages more points per game on offense. The egregious lack of scoring from the Cardinal will haunt them down the stretch of their remaining games, making even games against Oregon State up for grabs.
The Cardinal desperately need to go 4-1 to gain any traction as they race towards the season’s end.
3 - Play USC in the title game
In the happy place of the Stanford faithful, better teams have bumbled away the final stretch of games while the Cardinal cruised to the top of the North. The next question is: who can they beat in the PAC-12 title bout?
The Utah Utes currently lead the South, a team that waxed Stanford just three weeks ago. The next choice, the only team that could sneak up on the Utes, are the USC Trojans. For the sake of the white and red, hopefully, the Trojans get to the title round.
In the first round between the Cardinal and the Trojans, Stanford stifled J.T. Daniels and company to the lowest score Stanford has held USC to since 1941. For all their flaws this season, Stanford found a winning formula against the Trojans offense; sacking Daniels four times and coming up with three turnovers.
It was also the best game both Stanford’s running game and Bryce Love have had this season, pacing USC for 159 yards and a score on the ground. The Cardinal can beat up on the Trojans, forcing poor throws and silly mistakes, pounding the ball down their throat on the other end.
This all is a long shot to finding reality. Washington and Washington State are both excellent teams with top some of the best quarterbacks leading their squads. If you are a betting man, place your money on one of these teams to take the North. And even if everything broke for the Cardinal and they found themselves at the top of their division, the Utes have the tiebreaker over USC meaning they would need to lose most of their games down the stretch to drop the bid for the conference championship game.
It is all very much a long shot for the Cardinal to capture their 16th conference title. But it is not impossible.
This was also the best game both Stanford’s running game and Bryce Love have had this season, pacing USC for 159 yards and a score on the ground. The Cardinal can beat up on the Trojans, forcing sloppy throws and silly mistakes, pounding the ball down their throat on the other end.
Obviously, this all is a long shot to finding reality. Washington and Washington State are both very good teams with top some of the best quarterbacks leading their squads. If you are a betting man, place you money on one of these teams to take the North. And even if everything broke for the Cardinal and they found themselves at the top of their division, the Utes have the tie breaker over USC meaning they would need to lose most of their games down the stretch to lose the bid for the conference championship game.
It is all very much a long shot for the Cardinal to capture their 16th conference title. They need three good teams to lose their way, and an average team to surge just enough to get to the conference game before regressing in said game. That’s it.
Comments
We Need To Beat Both WSU and UW
UW is probably not going to lose twice (assuming we lose to them), so beating WSU is not going to be enough. But not sure we need them to lose twice (see below). I actually don’t completely understand your second path "Beat Huskies, who then beat Cougars" which I assume is where Stanford loses to WSU (as you dismiss Stanford winning out). Unless the Huskies or Cougars lose another game, all three teams would finish with 2 losses in conference with the Huskies holding a tie breaker over WSU, Stanford holding a tie breaker over UW and WSU holding a tie breaker over Stanford. UW’s other loss would be against Oregon (North), WSU’s other loss would be against USC (South) while Stanford’s other loss would be against Utah (South) So UW would have two North losses and Stanford and WSU would have one North loss each. Doesn’t the WSU tiebreaker place them ahead of us to win the North in that event? Also, assuming we beat WSU but lose to UW and WSU beats UW (and WSU, Stanford and UW win all remaining games), doesn’t this also result in a similar situation but where Stanford would hold the tie breaker over WSU (as the other team with only one loss in the North)?
Dazed and confused………
By hoyaparanoia on 10.25.18 3:29pm
I think your reasoning is correct
By Jeff Tarnungus on 10.26.18 12:03am
It's the Apple Cup not the "Apple Bowl."
But if the mistake was intentional, then I like it.
Also, you left something out of the first paragraph.
By Blackjoy on 10.25.18 3:44pm
This is the point in the season
when Shaw and his teams flout the pessimism of the fans, turn a corner and make the season better than expected.
2012: Stanford is sitting at 6-2 with losses to Washington and Notre Dame (in OT). Stanford has just struggled to beat a weak WSU team at home in Leach’s first season. In the next game against Colorado, Kevin Hogan enters the game and leads the team to a 48-0 shellacking of the Buffs at Folsom field. Two games later, we witness the OT upset of #1 Oregon in Autzen and a north championship. Two victories in a row vs. the Bruins, and Stanford is celebrating its first conference championship since 1999.
2013: After reaching #5 in the rankings and losing ugly to Utah in SLC, the team reeled off victories against #9 UCLA, #25 OSU and #3 Oregon to get the inside track on the north championship. A blow-out of ASU in the CCG produced a second conference title.
2014: It’s a miserable season. Stanford has just lost in succession to Oregon and Utah and is sitting at 5-5 and unsure of bowl eligibility. The Bears smell a chance to end Stanford’s winning streak, but get pulverized 38-17. #8 UCLA is the next victim; and in the Foster Farms Bowl, the team just destroys the Big Ten representative, Maryland. 8-5 isn’t great, but the season ended on a high note.
(I will leave out 2015, because, apart from the early stumble out of the gates against Northwestern, there was only one other loss late in the season to the Ducks. This team should have been in the playoff, but had one loss too many. Oregon fans see this as revenge for 2012).
2016: After going 4-3 with losses to UW, WSU and Colorado, Stanford reels off six straight wins to finish the season at 10-3, including a Sun Bowl victory over North Carolina.
2017: Having suffered their second conference loss to Wazzu, Costello and the team regroup and take out #9 Washington, unranked Cal and #8 Notre Dame to win the north championship for the fourth time in six years. The season does not end on such a great note (loss to USC in the CCG and loss to TCU in the Alamo Bowl); but the team did turn the corner once again when it counted.
With this track record, it would be foolhardy to doubt the team’s ability to come back and end this season on a high note. I have no hard facts, but somehow I think this season is different. There are too many parts that are not working and too many pieces that appear to be missing (or injured); and that does not bolster my confidence. I hope I am wrong, but I expect us to lose the next two, fall out of the north race and drop to 5-4. If we recover down the stretch, we might put together an 8-4 or 7-5 regular season and get some low-level bowl bid. Coach Shaw, it’s your moment again to make me eat crow. Please do your job.
By Jeff Tarnungus on 10.26.18 12:46am
Yes, This Is The Time Of Year When We Often Pull It Together
But I agree with you that it somehow feels different. To start with, we rank 126th in the nation in rushing offense. Not sure we have ever been anywhere near that level in recent history. We could improve this, but by how much and what difference would it truly make? On the other hand, given our passing offense potential………..we may not need to improve our rushing offense all that much to transform our offensive production. And we are coming off our bye week (sort of). Rest, recuperation, preparation.
Kevin Hogan was instrumental in picking up key first downs with his legs even when we seemed to be stalled in other aspects of the game at times. Costello does not provide the same potential. Without Hogan’s first downs, we lose a bunch of games during the above cited periods.
Anyway…………the upside here is that we still control our destiny despite playing some pretty mediocre/bad football. Hopefully we have some enlightened offensive and defensive strategies to unveil tomorrow. It has happened before………
By hoyaparanoia on 10.26.18 10:51am
Good list, but each of those seasons had a catalyst
Stanford tends to play strong in the second half of the season, and there often does seem to be a turning point, but that turning point is usually with a significant, identifiable change in personnel.
2012: The season changed the moment Hogan took over for Nunes.
2013: I don’t feel this year had a turning point. Stanford was a good team that just happened to lose two road games against physical teams (Utah, USC) and the Rose Bowl against a good MSU. All of those losses were tough, but there’s no real shame in any of them.
2014: This season turned on Hogan. He struggled all year. Later it was revealed that his dad was ill. His dad passed away near the end of the season, and suddenly, it was a new Kevin Hogan. He carried that momentum into 2015.
2016: The team turned a corner the moment Chryst replaced Burns as the starting QB.
2017: KJ struggled on the road in his first start against WSU, but once he settled in as the starting QB, the team ended the season strong.
Most of those seasons turned on the performance of the QB. What’s strange about this season is that our QB isn’t the problem. It’s the run game, of all things. The struggles of the run game don’t seem to be a personnel issue as much as a technique issue, which is far more concerning. Unlike previous seasons, I don’t see that one player that can be plugged into the lineup who can bring it all together. Except (and it pains me to say this) perhaps replacing Love with Scarlett or Speights. But even that seems more desperate than obvious.
The pieces are there. Something just needs to click for that o-line.
By Walter100 on 10.26.18 11:04am
Good summary
Yes, there were catalysts in most of those cases, often related to the QB.
Losing to Utah on the road in 2013 was a rather huge blow at the time and exposed certain vulnerabilities. Many fans (including me) saw the task of beating three straight ranked teams very daunting, especially the showdown with #3 Oregon. So maybe there wasn’t a catalyst, but there was a moment of truth; and the team responded.
The 2014 situation with Hogan and his father is well-known. Part of his mediocre play also related to poor O-line performance, which drastically improved in the Cal game and remained strong for the final two games.
In 2016, it didn’t hurt that Chryst took over just as the schedule was softening. So how much of that improvement was Chryst and how much was the schedule cannot be determined. But, yes, Chryst appears to have been the primary catalyst.
I am also at a loss to determine what the catalyst might be this time (if there is one). The only obvious answer would be similar to 2014: O-line performance. If this unit could finally live up to its pre-season billing, we might be able to establish an effective run game and protect Costello better in the pocket. This would increase TOP and keep our defense fresher. But I have sort of given up on that hope: It’s game eight in the season, and the O-line is still sub-par. And if it takes as long as in 2014, then we are toast against the two Washington schools.
By Jeff Tarnungus on 10.26.18 11:18am
Concur
Wish that it were not so, but the core issues are too big, and the competition is too stiff. I also see us losing to the Washingtons, and then going 8-4, 7-5.
By Brendan Ross on 10.26.18 5:10pm
espn writers see this as a close game.
http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/25074819/college-football-week-9-game-picks
By DCCARDINAL on 10.26.18 8:03am
Can this year's team actually play well?
So far, Stanford has beaten San Diego State (not as good as people thought), UC Davis (not that good), USC (with a freshman QB who showed his inexperience), and Oregon (with a classic choke). The two good teams they faced waxed them on both sides of the ball. So now the Cards face two more good teams in a row. Can they win? Theoretically, sure. But realistically, no. Shaw will challenge his O line to get it together, then show his confidence in them by running ineffectively into the middle again and again the first half. WSU and Washington will load the box and stop the run. Stanford will pass on 3rd and 8 , but WSU will blitz with speed, and the Stanford O-line is too slow to stop them and the receivers are simply not quick enough to get open in time. Then, on defense, a very, very good WSU QB will have all day to pick apart the defensive backfield. The sad part of all this is that Stanford actually has the talent to prevent this, on both sides of the ball. But the team is just not that well coached this year. See if this happens tomorrow: (1) the defense will be looking over at the sidelines for guidance time and time again as WSU lines up (the sign of a poorly prepared team) and (2) the offense will incur a rash of penalties for too much time and holding (two more signs of poorly prepared teams). I’d love to be wrong, really. I’d love to see the O-line coach, linebacker coach, and offensive coordinator (Shaw or Pritchard) coach a well coached game. But this year’s team has shown no signs of that happening.
By SU74 on 10.26.18 8:36am
Fear the Tree.
If Shaw does not turn loose of The O then I see WSU winning by 17, maybe more. I just don’t understand the boring, predictable, tired, offense. The When everyone in the stadium knows what play is coming next then you have major problems. But.. there may be a silver lining. If our O and D lines play up to their potential then good things can happen. I remember going to Utah 2 seasons ago. Two undefeated teams, and the scene was electric. The play in the trenches was brutal (understatement). Our guys came of age that night after playing spotty the 1st 3 games. We need that same kind of effort Saturday. Shaw needs to know that 3.5 yards x 3 will get you a 1st down every time. We control the clock, keep our "D" off the field, wear down their "D". We simply cannot win when faced with 3rd and 8 facing us throughout the game.
By bodumb on 10.26.18 11:47am
No matter what... I’m cheering my heart out tonight
I don’t have a great feeling about this game, but i also didn’t have a great feeling about the Dodgers last night – but they won!
No matter what, these young men deserve us to be the best fans we can be, so i’m going to be cheering for Stanford and my local Dodgers!
Go Cardinal! Go Dodgers!
By StanfordAA99 on 10.27.18 11:50am