Stanford 23 WSU 20

Go Cardinal.

By Max McArthur on 10.27.18 12:32pm

Wazzu by at least 14

Perhaps more if things go particularly badly for Stanford or particularly well for the Cougs.

Don’t think we have the horses for this one up front right now. Best hope is that Wazzu has a game like they did last year in Berkeley where everything goes wrong at once, or that they have a big letdown after last week’s euphoria. Otherwise I see us getting sliced and diced by their offense, and their Speed D shutting us down fairly effectively, as it has in the past.

By Brendan Ross on 10.27.18 1:52pm

NerdNation23 wins

By Cardinal&Orange on 10.27.18 7:31pm

Not sure what's worse

Getting clobbered by three TDs or losing like this. The Cougs were beatable. Our defense just couldn’t get the job done when it counted.

By Jeff Tarnungus on 10.27.18 11:02pm

Shaw made the right adjustments

But the defense was just completely gassed — the air raid will do that to you. I think Stanford performed much better than could have been reasonably expected going into the game, given how shocking Shaw’s offensive adjustments were. It’s hard to say that Wazzu doesn’t deserve to be leading the North, given that they have now beaten us and Oregon, and all of Stanford, Oregon and UW have 2+ conference losses now. It will be ironic if the Cougs pull their usual in the Apple Cup and end up losing the division anyway, but they currently look like the least flawed team in the division. A Utah/Wazzu champ game would be interesting, although I fully expect that even if Wazzu goes 12-1 and wins the CCG the best they will get is the Rose Bowl. — don’t see a Pac champ in the CFP this year really.

By Brendan Ross on 10.28.18 6:11am

Yes, but often games hinge on a few key momentum swings

And vicious circles start rearing their ugly heads. If the D can’t get the stop, then they’re on the field too long and get tired; if the offense can’t move the ball, then the D is back out there, gassed and unable to get the stop again. In my view, the pendulum swung in favor of Wazzu during the 3rd quarter. The Cougs came out and immediately scored on a long, sustained, air-raid drive. We got the ball leading 28-24 and put together a pretty good drive that ended in a FG to extend the lead to 31-24. Shaw’s decision to take the FG instead of go for the first down and the TD may have been the tipping point. We only had four true scoring possessions in the second half (I am not counting the last one when we had 19 seconds to go the distance). Of course, Shaw could not have known that at the time. But the way Wazzu moved down the field on that opening drive of the second half, he should have deduced that points would be vital at the end of the half. Taking three when you have a chance to get seven is not optimizing points-per-possession. We then traded punts (the only time our D got a stop the entire second half); but then our D was again on the field for 5 minutes as Minshew put together a 10 play drive for the equalizer. By this time, we were in the fourth quarter, and the defensive unit was sucking air. With the score knotted at 31-31, each team would only possess the ball two more times. Stanford would score on one of them (TD on possession #2); Wazzu would score on both of them (TD and FG); and that was the difference.

When Shaw opted for the FG on our first possession of the 2nd half, we failed to keep the 11 point (two possession) differential vs. WSU. In my view, this shifted the momentum to their team; and we only got one more score the entire second half. Wazzu got three more (for four scores on five possessions). There’s no obvious thing to point to; and WSU is a solid team, so no shame in losing a tight one to them. But we had a two-score lead and let this one slip away in the 2nd half. And, to be clear, our defense is not nearly the caliber we used to enjoy during our championship years (2012, 2013, 2015), gassed or not gassed. This side of the ball has been declining since the 2014 year (yes, even the 2015 D was not as good as the 2014 version).

By Jeff Tarnungus on 10.28.18 9:53am

Clearly things shifted in their favor in the second half

Once they started eating into the lead, it was very hard to stop that trend, because when that offense gets on a roll, it is very hard to stop. Even with relatively little time left at the end, you kind of knew they would be able to get within FG range with that offense.

I think WSU is a very hard team to beat unless you get a monstrous lead on them, and that’s hard to do. It will be interesting to see if they can change the trend in the Apple Cup. If they can, and they actually finish 11-1 … who knows?

By Brendan Ross on 10.29.18 7:40am

Yea especially now that WSU loss was to a totally train wreck usc

That usc loss is looking less and less like a quality loss every week. Beating Utah again in the championship game is not an extra datapoint since WSU already beat Utah once

By stanford6thman on 10.29.18 1:14am

It's always an extra data point

Because its a 13th game against a quality opponent, and you do get credit for beating a quality opponent twice, because it’s hard to do (we got credit in the past for beating USC twice, for example, in the CFP rankings even though we missed with 2 losses).

I still think an 11-1 WSU is a long shot for the CFP, but who knows? If ND loses along the way somewhere, then I think it’s more plausible, but would 11-1 WSU be in over 11-1 Michigan or 11-1 Oklahoma? Probably not. If WVU is 11-1? Maybe. I still think not, but it’s possible.

By Brendan Ross on 10.29.18 7:42am

I don’t know if Helton survives this season

Maybe good for us in the short run if usc needs time to rebuild under new coach but longer term if they find a coach who can maximize talent then watch out

By stanford6thman on 10.29.18 1:17am