Friends and family around town keep asking me how I think Stanford will finish the 2018 season. Many presume that with the return of Bryce Love the Cardinal are automatically in contention for the PAC-12 Championship and even the National Championship; however, that’s not the case. David Shaw will need to fill many holes left by the departure of many players on defense.
The common college football fan pays more attention to the long touchdown runs and the jaw-dropping highlights than anything else. In other words, most fans judge teams based off their offense. With the nation’s best running back, a loaded offensive front, and K.J. Costello’s arsenal of receivers, Stanford should have the best offense in their conference and maybe a top-five offense in the country, but unfortunately for the Cardinal, they don’t play in the Big 12. In our conference and throughout the country, defense wins championships.
Historically in the past decade, Stanford’s defense (particularly the front seven) has been feared by the conference. Between Shayne Skov and Blake Martinez, the team annually had a tackling machine at middle linebacker, and rest of the front seven was composed of future NFL players. As a result, #partyinthebackfield was created.
Over the last couple years though, their front seven has deteriorated. Last year, the team allowed 4.6 yards per carry, which ranked 80th in the nation, and if not for Harrison Phillips, that number could have been a lot higher. Now with his as well as Peter Kalambayi’s and Kevin Palma’s departure, it would take a miracle for the front seven to look anything like its former self.
On the defensive line, the team practically has no one with experience and will probably be anchored by redshirt sophomore Jovan Swann, who recorded 25 tackles last year but never started a game, and redshirt junior Dylan Jackson, who has two full playing seasons under his belt but never really stood out. Basically, the Cardinal are praying for a breakout star on the defensive line in 2018, or else the defensive line might really get pushed around.
At this point, you might be saying, “hold on, hold on, what about our linebackers? Won’t they be able to pick up the defensive line’s slack?” Sorry to break it to you, Cardinal fans, but no. They only lost two linebackers, but the roster still has very few, especially on the inside. Fifth-year senior Bobby Okereke will be their rock, and he showed promise versus Washington and Notre Dame, finishing with 10 and nine tackles respectively. He’ll be a solid piece, but besides him, there are plenty of question marks.
How will Sean Barton return from his injury?
Which linebacker position will Joey Alfieri even play?
Will Curtis Robinson finally live up to his five-star ranking?
Here’s my prediction for the Stanford defensive line in 2018:
Remember Stanford fans, defense wins championships, and this year’s defense won’t exactly be the dominating, run-stopping defense that we were once accustomed too. Oh yeah, did I forget to mention our secondary might also struggle? I’ll get to that next.
Comments
D-line...without question
Stanford won’t win the P-12, let alone the North if we don’t have a serviceable defense. Shaw’s offense is not particularly suited for shoot-outs (see TCU game). Shaw wants to run the ball and shorten the game. But that only works if you can keep the score low. If the other team is scoring at will, then this will pull Stanford out of its element on offense.
I really hope our D-coordinator can figure something out. Our D-Linemen have been underachieving it seems. Don’t know if the weight training program has fallen off or the loss of Randy Hart is to blame, but since Hart left, the faucet seems to be running dry. Shaw needs to spend some money and get a top quality D-line coach because USC, Oregon, and UW, will run down our throats if we let them.
By Blackjoy on 07.17.18 10:09pm
Shaw and Lance Anderson should not be underestimated
Certainly David Shaw has shown some poor judgment at times (relying on Ryan Burns one year and Keller Chryst the next), but there’s a reason other coaches keep listing him as one of the best in the country and why his team beat both Washington and Notre Dame last year. He knows what his offensive players do well. And this year, the only question marks on offense are Love’s health and Costello. Except for right guard, every other position on offense is two deep with excellent talent. And right guard is not exactly a black hole. He will incorporate Love into the passing game. He will figure out ways to use three and possibly four excellent beasts at tackle at the same time. And, as noted above, he’ll keep the Stanford defense off the field so that it can be as fresh as possible. If Costello improves from last year, this will be a very, very good offense.
Turning to Lance Anderson, I don’t think he’s lost a step. He is still a very good defensive coordinator. Like all of us, he’s certainly reviewed last year. He knows his linebacker corps couldn’t stop the run, couldn’t cover deep, and tackled poorly. He knows his defensive ends barely made their presence known. So what does he have? Outside Linebackers: Alfieri, Robinson, Toohill. With the underachieving Kalambaye gone, Robinson will have to step up to his potential. But if he doesn’t, Toohill is decent enough and experienced enough to fill that void. And if healthy, Alfieri is an all conference talent. Inside Linebackers: Okereke, Barton. Branch, Perez. I personally think Perez is a bust and Branch too small, but they both have enough experience to fill in spot duty. Barton, however, is a player, blessed with excellent speed. So it is up to Okereke. He knows what his role is, to coordinate the linebacking corps. If Alfieri and Barton remain healthy, I think the linebacking corps will reemerge this year. Defensive Tackle: Wade Perry is 324 pounds and a top 200 recruit. I really don’t see him giving up gaping holes on defense. Williams, unfortunately, has not shown much, but much of this probably has to do with serious health issues his first year on the Farm. I personally would like to see Anderson grab one of the unused massive tackles and insert some additional depth here, but I think Wade Perry will be fine. Defensive ends: Jackson has experience, and size, but no killer instinct. If he continues to underachieve, I think Anderson will slip in Ryan Johnson, unproven, but a top 15 defensive end in high school two years ago. And later in the season, I expect either Fox or Booker may see some action. Swann is indeed undersized, but he did show flashes. I expect him to be backed up by Schaffer, who has the physical tools and may just turn the corner on game smarts.
So, bottom line, I’m always more a glass half full guy when it comes to Stanford in the preseason. And the offense will be so talented that it simply won’t need the defense to dominate. Just do what you did last year to Washington, UCLA, and Notre Dame and the team will do fine.
By SU74 on 07.17.18 10:40pm
Disagree in part...
I think this is an unfair criticism. Prior to Burns/Chryst, Shaw had Hogan for four years. Name a major program that hasn’t has QB troubles at some point? Nick Saban subbed out his completely healthy starting QB during the title game, a guy who took over after a few games from the previous starter the year before. Look at Notre Dame, how many QBs has Brian Kelly burned through or run off? Ohio State? USC? Max Browne didn’t work out so well. Florida? Georgia? There difference between Stanford and those programs is that the QBs are backed up by an army of 4-5 star recruits on both sides of the line who can pick up the slack. Tim Tebow would have gone straight to baseball if he had played QB at Oregon State instead of Florida.
The QB position is arguably the most difficult position to play and the most scrutinized. More importantly, it is the most dependent upon other players. Burns started out 10/10 against K-state. Based on what I saw in the spring game, Burns was the best choice. Something happened and Burns fell apart. Does anyone know why? Chryst played the weakest part of the schedule and won. Despite that, I did not think Chryst was that great, decent, but not great. Stanford’s offensive scheme is not simple, so Shaw can’t so easily just pop in a new QB. Shaw probably should have stayed with Costello after the first switch, but I can’t blame Shaw for trying to have an ounce of loyalty.
Shaw, imo, deserves criticism for the drop in the defensive, but I don’t blame him for the QB situation because there’s really no way to be sure a guy can handle it until he handles it. And even then, QBs fall apart. Jake Browning wasn’t nearly as effective last year.
By Blackjoy on 07.18.18 11:09am