Stanford was voted by the Pac-12 Media once again to finish second in the North. Last year, the Cardinal won the North, and with Bryce Love returning, they could easily do it again. Could they win the PAC-12? What about the national championship?
Stanford opens the season hosting San Diego State, who defeated the Cardinal early last season. However, both teams, are now different. KJ Costello didn’t see any action versus the Aztecs last time, and the Aztecs’ star running back, Rashaad Penny, left for the NFL. I don’t see the Cardinal dropping this game. 1-0
Next is USC, looking to beat Stanford for the third straight time. The biggest question in this game will be true freshman J.T. Daniels. No one knows if he’ll start, but ask most Trojan fans and they’ll presume Daniels is the guy. Some will even go so far as to tell you that Daniels is better than Sam Darnold (though I’m still skeptical). With the game being early in the season, I’d give the edge to Stanford. USC will have a new quarterback and running back, and the Trojans will likely face a learning curve early. 2-0
Stanford plays UC Davis on September 15th. I’m moving on. 3-0
The Oregon game this year might be closer than you’d think. The Ducks have a new coach, who inherits a good quarterback in Justin Herbert. Herbert completed 68% of his passes with a 167.5 passer rating, fourth best in the country had he thrown enough passes to qualify. Herbert also has an arsenal of weapons, including five of last year’s top six receivers. In other words, the Ducks’ passing game should be scary. Expect Herbert to pick apart the Stanford secondary and beat the Cardinal in a high-scoring game. (The fact that the game is in Autzen doesn’t help either.) 3-1
The Cardinal travel to South Bend for their last game in September, and this game will be decided by one man: Bryce Love. The Irish defense is very solid, whereas their offense has some holes to fill after losing their top running back and their top two offensive lineman. Simply put, Notre Dame will probably realize they can’t outscore Stanford, so they’ll try to control time of possession and win with their defense. Luckily for the Cardinal, the Irish didn’t have much of an answer for an injured Love last year, and I don’t expect them to have one for a healthy Love in 2018. 4-1
Stanford returns home after two weeks on the road to face Utah, which will be no easy win. The Utes return their starting quarterback, Tyler Huntley, and a handful of starters on both sides of the ball, but they lose their best receiver, Darren Carrington II, as well as a couple of key players in the front seven. After struggling last season stopping the run, they’ll struggle again. Bryce Love will have a monster game and lead the Cardinal to victory. 5-1
After a bye week, the Cardinal head to Arizona State for a Thursday night showdown. Like Oregon, the Sun Devils have a new coach, Herm Edwards, who gets a decent quarterback in Manny Wilkins. Wilkins isn’t afraid to scramble and can throw a nice ball to his impressive receiving corps. The ASU offensive line, though, really struggles (unless a particular transfer from Stanford, Casey Tucker, suddenly lives up to his five-star potential), and I’d expect to Bobby Okereke to shine in this game. As for Bryce Love, he ran for 301 yards against the Sun Devils last season, and although it’s unlikely that he’ll replicate that performance, he’ll expose the defense and add to his Heisman resumé in a blowout. 6-1
David Shaw and his team will then turn their attention towards the Washington State Cougars, who have given the Cardinal trouble recently. This time around, however, Stanford will be the one with a quarterback advantage. The Cougars lose their starting quarterback Luke Falk, and now, Mike Leach is scrambling to find his replacement for the team’s pass-heavy offense. On the defensive side of the ball, WSU lost three of its top four lineman. Expect another big game from Bryce Love in a comfortable win at home. 7-1
Stanford’s biggest game of the year will be played on November 3rd in Seattle. Most likely, the game versus Washington will decide the North, and last year, it did. Stanford surprised the country versus Peterson’s Huskies, and the Cardinal will be big underdogs on the road this year. Washington returns veteran starter Jake Browning, and although Browning lost a couple key targets, he can depend on his run game with senior Myles Gaskin still on campus. The Huskies are experienced on both sides of the ball in 2018 and will avenge last season’s loss versus Stanford. 7-2
Fresh off a loss to Washington, Stanford will then return home to face Oregon State. Last year, the Cardinal barely escaped Corvallis with a victory, but I promise you that was a fluke. The Beavers have a new coach and still no talent; the Cardinal will win this game easily. 8-2
The Big Game comes next. Early last year, it appeared as if the Bears could take down Stanford in 2017, but Cal faltered near the end of the season while Stanford turned their season around. This year, Stanford travels across town, and I wouldn’t sleep on the Bears. Justin Wilcox is a legit coach, and they return their starting quarterback and top running back. Basically, Cal will have the same guys that almost took down Stanford last season. Still, I’m giving the edge to David Shaw and the Cardinal. 9-2
Concluding the year on Thanksgiving weekend will be UCLA. This game will be the only game I go to all year, so the Cardinal better win. In fact, I’ll promise you right now the Cardinal will win. UCLA may have brought in Chip Kelly, but UCLA is without a quarterback and a formidable defense. Stanford wins the game behind Bryce Love’s monster game. 10-2
My prediction is that Stanford finishes 10-2, and honestly, I think that’s maybe a tad optimistic. Ahead of the season, I’m assuming Lance Anderson’s defense will be decent and the offense will be healthy. That’s a lot of assuming.
More realistically, Stanford will drop one or two easy games and finish with either nine wins or eight. Putting the record aside, I predict Stanford will finish second in the North and play in the Holiday Bowl.
Comments
As the eminent physicist Neils Bohr stated:
"It’s difficult to make predictions, especially about the future."
That said, with the current unproven state of the defense, I would say that 10-2 is definitely optimistic. I do not see us stealing one from the Dawgs in Seattle: this Stanford team should be better than the unit that got bushwhacked in Husky stadium in 2016, but I still don’t see us getting out of that tough venue with a W.
Our second L is, in my view, more probable vs. the Fighting Irish than vs. the Ducks. I think we will handle Oregon in Autzen; beating preseason #11 Notre Dame in South Bend is a taller order.
I’ll go with revenge vs. the Trojans this year. Also, I would like to see us blow-out SDSU as payback for that miserable loss last year. But a Cardinal season would not be complete without some inexplicable loss that should not have happened (i.e., like SDSU last year). Cal? Utah? ASU?
So unless the defense is much better than forecast, I see Stanford (despite the potent offense) going 9-3 and ending up in the Sun Bowl or the Holiday Bowl. But could this perhaps be a team that repeats what the 2015 squad with Hogan and McCaffrey accomplished? The defense was also supposed to be sketchy that year and turned out to be a decent unit. There are certain parallels. So I won’t write off the possibility of a New Year’s Six bowl quite yet. Go Cardinal!
By Jeff Tarnungus on 08.03.18 1:36am
You...
…nattering nabob of negativity!
Agreed. Hoping the defense gels in ways not anticipated. I like Bobby for AA first team, if he keeps up like last season…
By Plan Man on 08.03.18 9:27am
The Problem Here Is Losing To UW Means
The only way we win the North is if the Dawgs lose TWO games in conference……and that is tough to expect. So lets go get the Huskies!! Do we really think we have no chance or is it because it is in Seattle? Let’s hope for an amazing gameplan that turns the tide in our favor! And that we don’t find a way to drop two games in conference…….including the aforementioned inexplicable loss!
I also hope that David Shaw does not start out the season with the assumption that we can play field position with our defense and win games through ball control. Maybe we get there but we could find ourselves playing a little too cautious early on offense and suddenly find ourselves down two scores in a game.
By hoyaparanoia on 08.03.18 1:32pm
Agree
Instead of the Oregon-Stanford winner claiming the north, we have entered a phase in which it’s the Washington-Stanford winner that wins the division. If we cannot upset the Dawgs in Seattle, I think we can kiss all title dreams good-bye.
And, yes, if our defense proves weaker than expected, Shaw would be ill-advised to try the traditional Stanford TOP and field position strategy. If we cannot count on our defense to get the stop, we will simply have to dial up a ton of offense.
By Jeff Tarnungus on 08.05.18 11:30am
Not a bad schedule layout
Especially when you consider that Stanford is always locked into a difficult schedule due to their commitments to the LA schools and Notre Dame, and the schedule is even tougher on odd-numbered years when the home/away splits don’t favor them.
It’s nice that the bye falls smack-dab in the middle of the season and that the home/away games alternate fairly well; we’re not traveling too many weeks in a row.
I also like how the early season breaks down. SDSU is the perfect warm-up game for USC. The Aztecs are a good, physical team and are sure to punch us hard in the face, unlike Rice last year. And then after USC, we get Davis, which is the perfect "cool down" team before we enter the real meat of our schedule. On top of that, all three games are at home, so we get a little time to iron out some rotation kinks. I like the way that early schedule lines up. Of course, it doesn’t guarantee anything, but it sets us up for a successful start.
The part of the schedule that worries me is the middle: @Oregon, @ND, vs Utah.
I’m not too worried about Oregon, but a road game to Autzen, followed by a road game in South Bend, and then coming home to face a physical Utah team, is tough. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the team drop any of those games, particularly against ND and Utah.
The main trap game I see on the schedule is the Thursday night game against ASU. These Thursday games are ruining the Pac-12s competitive chances. Last season’s Thursday road game almost saw the Cardinal get embarrassed by a bad Oregon State team. The year before, in a Friday night road game, they got dismantled by UW.
By Walter100 on 08.03.18 2:40pm
home...away from home.
you make some good points. But, athleticism will win out in some events. These are also college students. Only three home games in front of students. Such great hopes, but Coach did not recruit quickness or speed at LB DE or CB. 8-4 unless he learns a ball control passing game with many deep passes to keep the opposing D honest. I know everything (HA) and as Jackson Browne once said "the future is there for anyone to change, but it might be easier sometimes to change the past" – in Coach’s case, the violin is playing "killing me softly with his song". Roberta Flac wrote that one about Don Maclean. Who penned the line, Bye Bye Miss American Pie.
By ffishman1 on 08.23.18 9:59pm
Fear the Tree.
Shaw said Costello looks outstanding. Well. he better be. I worry about our "D" especially the front 4/5. Last season against SDSU, So. Cal., and TCU we were sucking wind in the 4th quarter. We made San Diego look a lot better than they were. We hung with a very talented USC until the 4th quarter. The last few minutes against TCU was a disaster. Our guys were whipped. Phillips could hardly get down in his stance. I don’t understand why Shaw didn’t use fresh legs just for a few plays. My gosh, why are those guys sitting on the sidelines? They can’t be all that bad. I hope we can get the ball out to our talented receivers. I think Love might surprise people with an improved ball catching ability.
By bodumb on 08.04.18 1:12pm
You're Not Really a Stanford Fan if You Don't Have Unrealistic Expectations at this Time of the Year
Just as the odds are stacked against you for winning the lottery, so, too, are Stanford’s chances of winning 10 games — except for a few wrinkles that didn’t exist last year. Early games will tell the tale whether this team wins 10 or just 8.
San Diego State caught Stanford by surprise last year. Won’t happen this time. And this time, SU has a quarterback who is better in just about every facet from last year. Win.
USC does have a new quarterback, but if you saw him in any all star games, he was pretty unimpressive. They will run, run, run. With a much better prepared linebacking corps, Stanford should keep them out of the end zone more than SC’s defense will frustrate Stanford. Close game because both sides will try to eat up the clock, but Stanford at home is a big advantage. Win.
UC Davis. Win, but a perfect opportunity to get some playing time for the freshman, particularly the ones on defense. With the new redshirt rule, Shaw can see who they want to use later in the season.
Oregon has a terrific quarterback, a terrific set of receivers, but he won’t pick apart the Stanford D backs, because the linebackers this year will be able to cover the short dumps and sideways passes that beefed up Herbert’s numbers. Oregon is at home, true, but without Chip Kelly. And I just don’t see them stopping the Stanford offense consistently. Win.
Our Lady of Perpetual Disappointment (ask Notre Dame). Shaw is simply a better coach. Always has been and always will be. Win.
Utah always plays Stanford tough. They don’t have the depth to last the whole season, but they will be up for this game. If Stanford is indeed 5-0 at this point, Stanford wins because they will begin to believe it is their year.
By SU74 on 08.04.18 9:58pm
Another 9-3 season +/- 1 win depending on the defense
I agree with Jeff about the potential losses. My prediction is as follows:
1. SDSU – This game scares the living hell out of me as a card fan. SDSU brings an experienced OL with another great rusher and a senior QB. So the cardinal defensive unit gets a stern test right out of the gate. SDSU defense lost some pieces but the 3-3-5 will test costello and the OL early. I see the elite cardinal offense struggling in this one but shaw puts the ball in love’s hands this time to eke out an unconvincing 20-17 win.
2. USC – Clay Helton hasn’t proved he could win without the services of darnold and this is his first big test on the road. They could be starting a freshman QB but if clay has learnt his lessons, he will keep the ball on the ground and test the cardinal DL further. The trojan defense is a sterner test than SDSU but costello finds big plays to WRs and TEs as trojan turnovers ultimately doom them to 41-34 win for the cardinal.
3. UC-Davis – "Bye" week after 2 really hard tests. Hopefully we have some injury luck and give the backups some reps. 42-13 as defense shows some cracks.
4. @Oregon – Old fashioned pac-12 shootout. It’s the battle of the september heismans as bryce love faces justin herbert on the road. The cardinal put their offense on the back of bryce who busts a couple of 50-yd TD runs. But oregon tests the defense at all levels as they match score to score. Eventually, the cardinal settle just in time in the 4th and a big day by JJ AW puts them over their first road test of the season. 45-42 card.
5. @ND – Always a weird september game when the card travels to south bend. Could see some rain as well which forces shaw to be more 1-dimensional and put it on bryce love. The ND offense has its fair share of struggles as Brian Kelly rotates QBs trying to find rhythm in the passing game. Ultimately the defense cracks in the 4th giving up a long game winning TD drive to hand stanford its first loss. (24-17)
6. Utah – Body blow theory (In 2016 stanford lost 45-16 to WSU at home after back-to-back roadies against @UCLA, @UW). After two straight road contests, the cardinal is battered and bruised with some key injuries. Utah gets its dual-threat QB and elusive RB and decides to pound the rock against the soft DL. In the flip side, costello struggles to find rhythm in the pass game as Utah’s physical presence takes a toll in the 4th quarter. Whittingham’s special teams are the difference as they hit a late 50-yd FG to win the game 24-21.
7. @Arizona State – Card get their bye at the right time as they rest and heal for ASU on the road. The Herm era at ASU is patchy to say the least as they look to topple stanford on a short week. Both teams struggle to build momentum early but cardinal establishes their TEs by mid-2nd quarter. Bryce love takes over the game and defense produces the stops when it matters as stanford win 31-21 on the road.
8. Wazzu – Leach loses so many pieces from his best team at pullman and yet somehow still scares me from a matchup point of view. Hopefully our DB depth chart is well prepared to shut down the aerial attack while on the flip side with no Hercules Mata’afa, bryce love explodes on the ground as well as gets TEs wide open to win the contest at home 38-21.
9. @UW – Shaw has circled this matchup just like he did against those great Oregon teams. Hard to doubt against the 4-time pac-12 coach of the year, as the team goes head-to-head against the huskies. This will be a lot close than the debacle 2 years ago, as the teams trade punch-for-punch. Ultimately the raucous venue and inclement weather slows down the cardinal just enough for the huskies to pull ahead and win 31-28.
10. Oregon State – Time to avenge that surprisingly close game last year. Costello starts hot as he completes his first 10 passes and cardinal go ahead 21-0 early in the second. Shaw takes the foot off the pedal and the beavs get a score in. Shaw puts in his backups by the 4th as the game is never in doubt winning 38-14.
11. @Cal – Cal comes into the big game with another year of bowl eligibility on the line. Wilcox did a great job containing love last year but a healthy bryce love and an experienced costello is the difference this year. Cal manages to punch stanford early in the run game as they trade blows going in 14-17 at halftime. Card pull ahead in the third thanks to some turnovers as they never relinquish control winning 35-28.
12. @UCLA – The chipster is back and trying to build UCLA to a contender. However, this is clearly not the year for them as the combination of young players, new scheme, tough schedule sees them go 4-7 as they enter this contest deflated after defeat at the hands of SC. This game starts off sleepy as both teams try to establish rhythm. Eventually, stanford just keeps it on the ground, pounding the soft UCLA defense and winning 36-20.
Bonus (Alamo Bowl vs Texas) – Shaw hasn’t lost back-to-back bowl games in his tenure. This is a showcase game for the texas recruits as bryce love has 1-last hurrah (or may sit out). The freshman see some action in this game and the defensive potential is shown just enough as stanford wins this game 31-24 eventually going 10-3 on the season.
By layman on 08.05.18 7:18am
Not sure we get to the Alamo Bowl in 2018 with three losses
We got there with four losses last year, but we were north champs, and both USC and Washington got New Year’s Six bowl bids. Your scenario presupposes that one Pac 12 team makes the playoff and one other makes the Rose Bowl. Depending on who #2 in the south is, we might get invited to the Alamo Bowl. But recent experience has shown that we are not a desirable date for most bowls due to our limited fan-following to such games (unless it’s a Rose Bowl, of course). To get a high-ranking bowl venue, we normally have to earn it outright (i.e., win the Pac-12 or at least the north). I would like to see a Pac 12 championship, but I doubt we have the horses on defense. Go Cardinal!
By Jeff Tarnungus on 08.05.18 2:46pm
Cardinal QB
Hey Guys…over the past 2 seasons the Cardinal QB who starts the season doesn’t end it. I see this being the case this year as well but I could be wrong… Anyway, Costello will have to pass the ball often and efficiently. Unlike last season, other teams have film on Costello… they’ve studied his tendencies.. passing the ball won’t be easy. Hopefully he has more n the bag than what was showed last season…If the passing game is established The Cardinal will be unstoppable
By Slot_Man22 on 08.06.18 4:09pm