The first game of the season is a mere few days away, with the anticipation of an entire summer reaching boiling point.
As the Stanford Cardinal and San Diego State Aztecs hit the turf Friday night, both teams have plenty of expectations and questions around their respective rosters. Here are the top expectations behind each program.
Juwan Washington Breaks Out
Between Donnel Pumphrey and Rashaad Penny, SDSU consistently boasted a 1,000-yard running back from 2014 to 2017, with both backs topping 2,000 yards in their final seasons. The pressure is on the new starter, Washington, to follow in their footsteps. Stanford is shaky on the defensive front, and Washington is going to get plenty of shots, as he is returning kicks and punts along with taking snaps in an offense that lost most of their top receivers.
Opportunity and a soft defensive front will spark Washington’s 2018 campaign.
Stat Line - 102 rushing yards, one touchdown, 157 return yards
Osiris St. Brown Electrifies
Equanimeous St. Brown averaged 16.1 yards per reception with the Notre Dame Fighting Irish; now both his brothers (Osiris and Amon-Ra) are in the PAC-12. All three took the top off of defenses throughout high school, and after their older brother’s tenure with ND, Osiris is anticipated to do the same at the colligate level.
He gives the Cardinal something they have not had in a great while: a genuinely devastating burner on the outside. He may not lead Stanford in receptions, but Osiris will change the passing attack of the Cardinal.
Stat Line - three receptions, 84 yards, one touchdown
Bryce Love Runs It Back
The hype train around Love has been chugging along at full speed since last summer, so there is not much to say here. Love is a Heisman contender, expect him to play like it.
Stat Line - 136 yards, two touchdowns
Kaden Smith Acts As Safety Blanket
Quarterback K.J. Costello is the undisputed starter, and there are a lot of reasons to expect an uptick in his production; Smith is one of those reasons. Tight ends accounted for 12 receiving touchdowns last season while the wide receiving corps recorded only 11. Smith himself recorded five scores on just 23 receptions.
When the field gets tight, Smith is a favorite target for Costello. In the junior’s second season of action, all signs point to him being a frequent target following glowing praise from head coach David Shaw and plenty of spring game action. Paired with a receiver like St. Brown, who will pull safeties, and the rise of Costello, success seems inevitable for Smith.
Stat Line - seven receptions, 75 yards
Costello Does Not Over-Extend
The Stanford offense has a running back contending for the Heisman for a second time, a wide receiver featured on HBO’s Real Sports show with his family and is on a team that for the first time in a decade, must compensate for their defense.
In all, there is a lot of pressure on quarterback Costello. The most important thing in game one, against a team they are favored to beat by 14 points, is to drive the Ferrari. Every pass cannot be a home run try to Osiris, nor can he hesitate on every throw in fear of an interception.
Costello needs stay calm behind Love and the running game, finding his comfort zone from last season in the pistol formation and consistently getting through his reads. Calm is all Costello should shoot for in the opener.
Stat Line - 14-of-23, 196 yards, two touchdowns
The Light Stay On
Last season, Stanford lost 20-17 on an 8-yard touchdown pass to David Wells. Six minutes before the dagger of a score, the lights went out in the SDCCU Stadium, causing a 25-minute freeze. Blaming a game on lights may be even worse than blaming a referee, but saying the 25-minute second halftime absolutely did not impact the game is also further than I am willing to go. Hopefully, the lights run as smoothly as Love.
Stat Line - The Cardinal win under consistent illumination
The Cardinal Start 1-0
This season, Stanford has a new twist on an offense that can already churn out rushing yards. Confidence at quarterback for the first time since Kevin Hogan, a deep threat receiver and a tight end drawing Zach Ertz comparisons are all surrounding a ground game that produced over 2,000 yards in 2017.
The defense will bite this team, but not in game one against the Aztecs.
Stat Line - Stanford wins 31-17
Comments
I'm going with a more rusty performance 31-24 card
The defense is missing so many pieces while the offensive line is also shaky to start off the season. So I expect stanford to grind it out in the run game and handing love atleast 20 touches and about 165 yards on the ground. While on the other side, I expect the aztecs to pound it out and win the ToP but to be stopped in the red zone enough times to get the win at home. The DL bends but stiffens while the secondary is tested by a crafty senior QB.
By layman on 08.29.18 9:48pm
Here's another preview. . . .
https://mwwire.com/2018/08/28/aztecs-at-stanford-game-prediction-and-preview/
By Aztec Nation on 08.30.18 6:10am
One thing to keep in mind...
The Aztecs were ranked by the Coaches Poll in the preseason at #20 after they were observed in Spring Training. They are severely and unjustly underrated at current #41. The Cardinal, with its defensive shortcomings are overrated at #13- even with a Heisman hopeful and top-10 offense.
Just between us girls, there is a firm argument both teams belong around #20-25. This game will be much more evenly matched than most recognize.
By Aztec Nation on 08.30.18 6:25am
There are two big differences this year vs. last year
1) Chryst had arguably the worst game of his career against SDSU. Chryst is no longer under center; and his replacement, K.J. Costello, has shown a lot more passing accuracy and better utilization of his offensive weapons, which are prodigious this season.
2) The game is at Stanford stadium this year. Stanford has one of the best records at home in the entire nation during the Shaw era. It can’t be due to the fan noise, but the record is still very good. The last time we lost a home opener was 2007, in Harbaugh’s first year.
That’s why I think Stanford will have the better end this time around, though I expect SDSU to give us a battle.
By Jeff Tarnungus on 08.30.18 8:55am
Stanford Often Plays Poorly and Too Conservatively To Start The Year
This has led to losses, and near losses to lesser teams, as the season opens up – irrespective of the fact that we have not lost at home since 2007. Even when we have had good O Lines, penalties in the early games have been a big issue. New defenses take time to learn to play together, with teams exploiting the learning curve. Shaw runs the ball and punts often.
I think we win this game, but SDSU is not scared and has talent and an excellent coach. I don’t think they have the talent to BEAT us outright, but if we keep the game too close, they have a dual threat senior QB who can lead a winning drive against us (see last year).
I would expect a sizeable SDSU crowd at Stanford Stadium, with few Stanford students around. The 6:00 PM Friday night start time is also terrible for a Stanford alumni fan base with serious work commitments. Many may choose to pass. This even impacted the PAC 12 Championship game against UCLA several years ago.
I just hope we get up a couple of scores early so that we can all breathe easier.
By hoyaparanoia on 08.30.18 1:19pm
Interesting take
There are a number of other factors that need to be considered:
Some key personnel will be missing the first game, most prominently Jesse Burkett, but also Alijah Holder. Their "injuries" do not appear to be severe, but Shaw has still decided to keep them out. I am wondering whether Shaw is trying to make sure that these individuals are 100% when the Trojans come to town next weekend. Also, knowing Shaw, he will not want to show too much this early in the season, so he may gamble and play a vanilla offense, which will restrict scoring. As you note above, that is always dangerous, because an inopportune turnover or a busted play can quickly change the scenario in a close game. We should win this game; but if the team is too tenuous and a few things go wrong, we could again be on the wrong side of a close one (of course, that applies to any game against any team, so no bold insight; it’s just that SDSU is certainly better than some of the other teams Stanford has hosted in home-openers.) Here is the link to an article on the home-opening streak. https://gostanford.com/news/2018/8/27/football-home-sweet-openers.aspx?utm_source=fb-organic&utm_medium=commpost_2018-08-30_1A2ALG&utm_campaign=football_otherpd_otherp__
By Jeff Tarnungus on 08.30.18 1:28pm
Shaw seemed relaxed and confident on the radio the other day
He was being interviewed by Mark Packer on ESPNU radio, and he seemed confident enough. He did say that he thought it would be a challenge due to the injuries, but he also said that he expects the guys back fairly soon (I am not sure that means SC, however).
I agree that SDSU will be a tougher challenge than most of the other home opener opponents in this stretch, and without the starting center in particular things could be a tad wonky.
By Brendan Ross on 08.31.18 6:06am
No one works late on Friday.
By atg_commish on 08.30.18 2:11pm
Especially on labor day weekend
But there is the traffic to consider and the fact that many will not want to deal with the late friday afternoon traffic in the Bay Area to go to this game.
By Brendan Ross on 08.31.18 6:03am
Stanford 36, Aztecs 26
By vk on 08.30.18 8:59am
The Isn't Last Year
The Trees have a much better QB in Costello and a legit deep threat in St. Brown. That prevents the Aztec D from loading up on Love.
That being said, I have faith the Aztec D keeps them in check for most of the game.
What I think and what I hope will happen are different as an Aztec fan.
Think…SDSU keeps it close until Love busts the game open late. SDSU doesn’t have the horses on O to keep up. Chapman is an efficient winner, but he has no WRs to throw to. Our deep threat can’t catch and nobody else can get open.
Trees 31
Aztecs 24
Hope…Our very reliable kicker makes every opportunity including the game-winner. The D keeps Stanford in check long enough to take an early lead and the Aztecs hold on for dear life with a couple of late FGs with one very late in the game.
Aztecs 26
Trees 24.
Go Aztecs!
By SDSUstoner on 08.30.18 11:13am
Love averaged 163 yards per game last season...
….playing on one leg for the last half. Why would he only put up 136 on Friday against a team with below Pac-12 quality defense?
By atg_commish on 08.30.18 2:09pm
LMAO
The 11th Ranked D in the nation last year?
The same D that was ranked above every Pac-12 team sans Washington?
LMAO
Sure thing
By SDSUstoner on 08.31.18 1:51pm
Stanford 49, SDSU 10
It won’t be close.
By atg_commish on 08.30.18 2:10pm