Matt Vassar: Yes, I’m aware that we lost when we last met SDSU. But it was only by a field goal, and I just don’t see it happening again when we move the game to Stanford Stadium. And especially with SDSU losing half of its defensive starters—including 2 of 3 on the defensive line—I just don’t see them having an answer for Bryce Love. In the passing game, JJ Arcega-Whiteside, Trenton Irwin, and Kaden Smith (whom Shaw has dubbed “the next Zach Ertz”) will put in a good (but not great) performance. But the unsung heroes will once again be the tunnel workers’ union opening up holes for Love, who in turn will put in a performance worthy of a Heisman runner-up. Stanford 31, SDSU 17
Grant Avalon: I don’t think the loss of Rashaad Penny is as significant as people think; Juwan Washington is likely headed for a big year of his own on the ground, and veteran QB Christian Chapman is back at the helm. With that said, I don’t foresee a repeat of Keller Chryst’s clunker from a year ago. K.J. Costello, Bryce Love, and the talented Cardinal offense should have their way with the Aztec D. Stanford 38, SDSU 21
David Ta: Last year we lost because of a terrible performance by Keller Chryst and we deserved to lose. That should change with the strong-armed K.J. Costello. Our offense will win us the game, but the defense will keep it from being a blowout. Last year was concerning, but we have lost proven stars in Harrison Phillips, Quenton Meeks and Justin Reid. The SDSU offensive line is young but talented. Juwan Washington will have a strong showing and rush for over 100 yards against an unproven Stanford DL that was already a weak point last year. It will be close in the first half, but Stanford’s talent will overpower a resilient SDSU effort to win the game. Stanford 45, SDSU 31
Marlaina Calhoun: To me, the biggest takeaways from last year’s game were: 1. how much SDSU’s time of possession dominated Stanford’s, and 2. the obvious lack of QB play from Chryst. Other than Bryce Love’s two big 50+ yard runs (which we’ve come to expect and cherish) the tempo and mood were totally controlled by SDSU from start to finish. I expect Costello and Stanford’s receiving team to come out strong out of the gate and remain a force throughout the game. Bryce Love will have his way as well. Hopefully the lights stay on this time. Stanford 41, SDSU 17
Kyle Fierro: Last year, Stanford led at SDSU with less than a minute remaining after 4 quarters of the worst QB play I can remember. Chryst finished with a QBR of 4.2, a 45% completion rate, 72 yards passing, a TD/INT of 0/2 and a lost fumble. All of Stanford’s offense came on two exceptional Love runs. Thankfully, Love is the only constant between last year’s game and Friday’s match-up. Gone is Rashaad Penny, the only guy to out-rush Love last year. Gone is Chryst, replaced with a healthy Costello. Gone are the back-to-back road games following a trip to Australia. Penny’s backup RB Washington should provide a solid test for the new Cardinal D-Line, and injuries to #1 CB Alijah Holder and starting center Jesse Burkett will handicap the Cardinal somewhat. But make no mistake, this Stanford offense is magnitudes better than what SDSU saw last year, and it will more than make up for a questionable defense. Stanford 37, SDSU 20
nerdnation23: The first game of the season is always a tossup; even if you have a good idea how the team will finish, Stanford often surprises us in how it will start. Stanford comes into 2018 with lofty goals, but 2017 lingers. The biggest thing from last year to this year is Keller Chryst is no longer the best player for the Aztecs and that alone should be the key to the game. Stanford gets going early and often to run away with a win. Stanford 38, SDSU 17
Colton Molesky: Despite any misgivings about the Stanford defense, the offense will be far too much for the Aztecs. Last year, Bryce Love dashed for 184 yards on the ground, virtually unassisted by those around him not on the offensive line. This round, the quarterback spot is solidified behind K.J. Costello, while also giving him a great new tool in Osiris St. Brown at wide receiver. The new deep threat, paired with an improvement at quarterback and the return of a monster in the backfield all spell doom for SDSU’s defense. Stanford 31, SDSU 17
Comments
I like these predictions, but I only have one quibble.
Yes, SDSU doesn’t have Penny this year, but they have Washington; and Stanford is arguably weaker on defense than last year. At the same time, our offense should be twice as potent. So the game should be high-scoring. All prognosticators except for David Ta are expecting the Aztecs to score roughly the same amount of points as last year; but, in my view, they are likely to get more. Of all the predictions, I think David Ta’s is closest; and, if anything, our margin of victory is more likely to be ten rather than fourteen points. So how about 41-31 Stanford.
By Jeff Tarnungus on 08.31.18 6:18am
What to look for now that the season is finally here
1. Is Costello the real deal? Shaw, as always, will set the initial play, but the ability to adjust at the line of scrimmage is what defined Hogan’s success and Chryst’s lack thereof. And what helped Andrew Luck a lot was his ability to progress through his receivers. Shaw says Costello is doing that. Let’s hope.
2. Are the linebackers going to be a force? Sure, the defensive line is not that deep and relatively inexperienced, but 3 against 5 can never stop the run. You need help from both inside linebackers. Their play was spotty to poor all last year, but particularly in the SDSU game. If they dominate the inside, then there is indeed hope against USC and Washington down the line.
3. Who will emerge as a force on the O-line? We know Little, Herbig, and Hall are both reliable and very good. The same for Burkett when he returns. But how will Dalman, Sarell, Hamilton, and Fanaika do against an undermanned SD State defensive line? Avoid penalties. Pull quickly. and stop blitzing linebackers. If any one (or more) of these four do that, then Stanford will truly have a great offensive line.
4. Can the safeties stop the over the middle, mid-range pass? Stanford’s cornerbacks (even without Holder this game) are fully capable in one on one coverage. But Stanford has always had a weakness up the middle, particularly if the other team has a decent tight end. Last year, San Diego State’s QB ate them up with short to mid-range passes over the middle. Once again, let’s see who emerges as a force over the middle among the rash of safeties and nickel backs at Stanford.
5 A win by less than 3 touchdowns will not bode well. Stanford is at home. Stanford will not be surprised by SDSU this year. Costello has been designated the man for some time and has had lots of reps with all his receivers. Love is the best running back in America There’s more, but you get the point. USC, Oregon, Washington, Utah, Notre Dame are all better than San Diego State. No excuses.
By SU74 on 08.31.18 8:39am
Stanford might have the horses for a 3 TD victory
if everything goes right. But that’s not Shaw’s MO. If Stanford gets out to a comfortable lead (say the lead does get to 3 TDs at some point), Shaw will rein in the horses, play conservatively to preserve the advantage and end up winning by two TDs or less.
And if we do not get out to a comfortable lead, then it will be a classic field position tussle with a narrow margin of victory (1-7 points).
Lopsided victories have occurred in the Shaw era, but they are not that common. The other team has to be totally out-manned, while Stanford has to be able to move the ball at will. And I don’t expect either to be the case tomorrow.
Still, I like your confidence and hope we have some positive answers to the questions you pose.
By Jeff Tarnungus on 08.31.18 12:41pm
When SDSU Passes
It will rely a ton on its TEs & RBs.
The one Aztec deep threat can’t catch. He had several TDs dropped and some went thru his hands without actually making contact with them last year. The other WRs can’t get open vs. air.
By SDSUstoner on 08.31.18 1:36pm
I think the game may be lower scoring than predicted
I think the defense will perform better than we expect against SDSU but the offense may be a little rusty out of the gate. This is purely a hunch, though, and I’m sure you all have been paying more attention than me.
By worldblee on 08.31.18 9:22am
Concur with this sentiment
I think the offense will be rusty out of the gate while the defense shows early promise. I expect a closer game than the Vegas spread of 14.5. something like 31-20. Plus both teams like to run the ball which shortens possessions
By layman on 08.31.18 12:32pm
This game is the essence of redemption for Stanford, and it is being played on The Farm, in the season opener. The math here is simple for me.
Stanford 37
SDSU 17
San Diego is my hometown, and Rocky Long is one of the most underrated coaches in all of football, but I think the Cardinal have far too much talent for ‘State’ this year. In any case, I will be pulling for the Aztecs in every other game they play this season. Cheers y’all.
By Max McArthur on 08.31.18 12:21pm
LOL @ The high scores in the article
My Aztecs most likely won’t pull the upset, but this game won’t hit the over. The Aztecs may not return half its "starters." But, the way SDSU regularly rotates on D, it isn’t like they lack relevant game experience. They’ll be better than last year. So will the Aztec O with all 5 guys back
By SDSUstoner on 08.31.18 1:29pm
Good to have you here, SDSUstoner!
Great to get a perspective from the SDSU side! Come visit us anytime!
Also, Go Aztecs… but only after this game draws to a close!
By Matt Vassar on 08.31.18 2:41pm