Stanford’s personnel groupings look like they’re starting to take shape

Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images

During today’s media meeting with the media, David Shaw was asked if Osiris St. Brown was now the team’s #3 receiver.

This question was asked because in the UC Davis game, St. Brown caught a huge 53-yard post route off of a play-action fake. Osiris is a redshirt freshman, a vaunted 4-star recruit, and his younger brother starting at WR for USC while his older brother plays WR for the Green Bay Packers. The pedigree is impressive, the expectations are sky-high, and it seemed like a breakout moment.

Why else would a freshman with one catch be mentioned as a starter besides two experienced seniors Arcega-Whiteside and Irwin? The implication in the question was that because Conor Wedington (the other vaunted WR in last year’s freshman class) has been sidelined with injury for most of this season, Osiris St. Brown would have a big role in the offense going forward.

But Shaw was a little coy. “I don’t have [our receivers] numbered—they each have their own role,” Shaw responded, specifically mentioning Conor Wedington, Osiris St. Brown, Michael Wilson and Donald Stewart by name.

I like David Shaw’s answer—because neither Conor Wedington or Osiris St. Brown resemble a #3 receiver.

Check out these stats from the season so far:

In this Stanford offense, the #1 is big JJ—the clear red zone target, who has the size to box out receivers on deep sideline routes and end zone fades alike. The #2 is actually Kaden Smith, who has the size to run block, and the speed to run routes up the seam and control the middle of the field. Trenton Irwin is the one filling the #3 receiver role—he has sure hands and runs clean routes, so he’s dependable enough to keep on the field all the time, but he is clearly the #3 pass catching option for Costello.

What none of these players are is a speed threat. When David Shaw says Osiris and Conor have a role, he means they can be the speed threat. This is a role that the Stanford offense has been lacking thus far, and will certainly have utility in forcing opponent’s defensive backs to align more conservatively, opening up routes underneath and decompressing the line of scrimmage for Love.

However with these 2 WRs, 1 TE, 1 QB and 1 Bryce Love in on all plays, that leaves just one paltry spot on offense to go to the FB, the 2nd TE (Colby Parkinson, who is also fantastic), the Ogre OL, or a 3rd WR. It’s exciting to think about what a deep threat could do for Stanford, but I don’t see them regularly replacing Irwin in the depth chart or the TE2/FB in personnel groupings. On top of this, Stanford’s game plan is predicated on limiting the total number of plays in a game and maximizing the rushing offense.

For better or for worse, I think Shaw’s answer means Stanford will not be featuring either Conor or Osiris as part of their base offense anytime soon. As I have already mentioned there are a limited number of receiver route opportunities already, and this sets the stage for a potential issue for Shaw’s game plan. I fear that the speed threat role will have very few opportunities to shine in this offense, meaning that they will be on the field only during designated deep passing plays. When Osiris or Conor are on the field, it may be predictable what their roles will be and this could really limit the advantage of having a credible deep threat in the first place. I’m really excited to see these two guys play, but I’m tempering my expectations for big roles until next season.

Another personnel development I’d like to discuss is the ascent of Paulson Adebo. The young DB is the 2018 version of Quenton Meeks. He is the Brandon Browner to Alijah Holder’s Richard Sherman. He is second in the nation in passes broken up after he knocked down three in the UC Davis game, and his play looks even better than the stats.

With 3 minutes left in the first half against USC, Adebo was tasked with covering a deep route from USC’s St. Brown, Amon-Ra. The route started with a fake back to the quarterback about 5 yards from the line of scrimmage, which Adebo followed—but the receiver quickly turned upfield instead, sprinting along the sideline. Amon-Ra is really fast, and Adebo lost a couple of steps on him with the fake, but he recovered quickly and blazed ahead. His speed, along with some help from a short throw, allowed him to catch up to Amon-Ra. With perfect timing, he jumped between the ball and Amon-Ra, and deftly deflected the pass without bumping or interfering with the receiver.

Adebo can play on an island with a real speedy receiver, and I think having two trustworthy CBs will benefit the Cardinal defense as a whole. I really look forward to watching him play and I don’t expect him to lose the starting CB spot for the rest of his time at Stanford.

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Comments

Barry Browning

Not Brandon Browner

Wait a sec

Never mind

You meant in Seattle, not at Stanford.

Speed is not really the issue, either on offense or defense; it is the formations

Stanford has arguably the fastest running back in college football. But his speed is wasted in an over-reliance upon bunched up formations that cause the defense to stack the box. I agree that JJ, Trent, and Kaden are not speed burners. But in every game, JJ seems to be able to get past the coverage along the sidelines. Costello has, unfortunately, overthrown him at least twice. Similarly with Kaden Smith. He is able to get open without former tight end Coby Fleener’s speed. Hopefully, Shaw will insert more 4-receiver formations than he has so far. The math is fairly simple: with four receivers (tight ends or wide outs) you have to hold back 5 and more likely 6 defensive backs. If you throw in a few passes to Love, all this will open up the field more than simply throwing deep a few times.

On defense, I believe Adebo had a faster 40 time in high school than Amon-Ra St. Brown. He can catch up to just about anyone, particularly as Holder will probably take the other side’s best receiver. Adebo’s weakness is simply that he doesn’t read the receiver’s cuts and feints as well as Holder. But that will come the more he plays. And it seems like the reason the defense has done so well this year is that both corners can go one on one with whomever they are guarding. (I don’t think either Oregon or Notre Dame has a receiver as dangerous as the tall UC Davis guy.) That gives Lance Anderson 9 defenders to move around all over the place. Hard for any QB, even one as gifted as Oregon’s to adjust to that. We’ll see this weekend.

Good analysis

And I agree with SU74 that if Stanford spreads the field more, or even does more running out wide out of bunched formations, they can open up more space for Love to run.

St. Brown could be very useful for those few deep balls Stanford will throw, although it’s even money if Costello could hit him in stride as his footwork is not great and his throws have been all over the place thus far.

The formations are an issue

Stanford has a great deal of speed, both on O, and especially this year on D. The D is playing far beyond what I anticipated. But the O is sort of "2 yards and a cloud of astroturf" – doesn’t cut it. Watch Shaw on the sidelines; I swear the hand signals he uses are the same 75% of the time. We are in an offensive desert for perhaps the fifth straight year. There could be the personnel on this team to go to a CFB game, and certainly to a NYD bowl, if every game offensively wasn’t a carbon-copy of every game we’ve played for years.

Yes, I don't get it either

An all-world tailback, a solid QB, an O-line that should be every defense’s nightmare, a bevy of receivers that are dangerous at every range on the field; and, yet, we struggle to move the ball and put up points. Very strange.

slotted or besotted

number 3 is usually thought of as a slot receiver, not the guy ranked 3rd in numbero de catcho. Try writing an article about D. Shaw’s total lack of use of his speed merchant MR. LOVE in the slot. How sad and bored we alumni are.

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