#7 Stanford (4-0) was down the entire game to #20 Oregon (3-1) on Saturday night in front of a sellout crowd at Autzen Stadium, and showed tremendous heart in the epic comeback win. On that same level, this battle exemplified why college football is so very exciting, and why no game is ever truly decided until the end.
Cardinal junior quarterback K.J. Costello (19 for 26 passing / 327 yards / 3 TD’s / 95.5 QBR) threw a back-shoulder jump ball to 6’7” sophomore tight end Colby Parkinson (3 receptions / 50 yards / 1 TD / 16.7 YPR) on the first possession of overtime, which turned out to be the game winning score. Parkinson used his long arms and massive frame to tip the the pass over and through two Ducks defenders, and eventually back to himself. It was a special play, though just one of many from the most talented tight end duo in the country.
His counterpart, 6’6” Stanford junior TE Kaden Smith (6 receptions / 95 yards / 15.8 YPR), was Costello’s sure thing in the air attack all day. Both Smith and Parkinson will be suiting up on Sundays in the near future, as will a bunch of other kids who played in this game, stay tuned folks.
In terms of the very end, it was fitting that the elite Stanford secondary was able to seal the victory for their side in overtime. Senior cornerback Alijah Holder (5 tackles / 2 PD / 1 TFL) made an incredibly athletic play to dive on a slant route, and tip the pass in to the air. Harmoniously, fellow senior DB Alameen Murphy (4 tackles / 2 PD / 1 INT) was able to come down with the deflection, and finally decide the contest.
Also in that same secondary, Cardinal super sophomore cornerback Paulson Adebo (7 tackles / 5 PD) was a menace to the Ducks passing attack, and made several big plays late that directly impacted the result.
The deepest irony in the win, by far, was Oregon native and Stanford senior outside linebacker Joey Alfieri (4 tackles / 2 QBH / 1 FR / 1 TD) scooping a fumbled snap and going 80 yards for a defensive touchdown that gave the Cardinal ‘Uncle Mo’ for the first time on the evening. As it turns out, Alfieri became a Stanford commit after his recruiting trip to Oregon, when he watched the two teams play each other from the sideline. So, I would say irony it is.
His fellow senior Cardinal linebackers Bobby Okereke (9 tackles / 3 TFL / 1 sack / 1 QBH / 1 PD) and Sean Barton (8 tackles / 1 FR / 1 PD) also embodied their “intellectual brutality” creed, especially in the 2nd half. Equally, junior OLB Jordan Fox (9 tackles / 2 TFL / 2 QBH /1.5 sacks) had his most impressive game thus far for The Card.
The Ducks committed all resources on defense, as has each Stanford opponent so far in ’18, to stopping All-World running back Bryce “Dr.” Love (19 carries / 89 yards / 1 TD / 4.7 YPC / 122 all-purpose yards). Oregon was fairly successful in that endeavor, by Love’s standards anyhow, but his quality pass protection was again the difference for this offense.
“The Doctor” added ten pounds of muscle in the offseason, in order to take on blitzing linebackers in those specific protection situations. The move has paid off handsomely in the passing attack for Stanford.
Likewise, as I wrote about Cardinal senior wide receiver J.J. Arcega-Whiteside (4 receptions / 84 yards / 2 TD’s / 21.0 YPR) last week, “All he does is catch touchdowns”. Well, he caught two more against their PAC-12 north rival this week. That gives him 7 TD’s in four games, and I would say he’s officially ‘red’ hot.
Another game changing play for Stanford was sophomore safety Noah Williams (6 tackles / 1 FF / 1 PD) stripping Oregon RB CJ Verdell with just 51 seconds remaining in the 4th quarter and Stanford trailing by 3, allowing Sean Barton to instinctively jump on the loose ball. The Cardinal then proceeded to drive the length of the field, and Jet Toner nailed the field goal to send it to overtime. From there, it is American history.
Giving credit where credit is due, Oregon juniors QB Justin Herbert (26 for 33 passing / 346 yards / 1 TD / 1 INT / 86.4 QBR) and wide receiver Dillon Mitchell (14 catches / 239 yards / 17.1 YPC) propelled the Ducks to a commanding 1st half lead with their outstanding play, and still finished with very classy numbers on the night.
#7 Stanford (4-0 / 2-0 PAC 12) is “On The Road Again” next week at #8 Notre Dame (4-0), while the #19 Ducks (3-1 / 0-1 PAC 12) have another legitimate test as well at #24 CAL (3-0 / 0-0 PAC 12). Both matchups will be well worth watching, write it down.
Win or lose, Roll Red.
Comments
Mixed emotions about what the win means
I want to compare this to the Oregon State game last year. Stanford had no right to win the OSU game. But we did, and went on to win the North. Emotionally, watching that OSU game was as painful an experience as I’ve had watching football. It truly felt like we lost that game. The Ducks game did not feel that way. Stanford benefited from a ridiculous set of odds, but it was not completely unearned. Even with the scoop and score, Oregon still scored another TD and had a 10 point lead with 4.xx to go. We flat out defended them in OT.
I was hoping that our Defense was legit. I am not sure that it is. I seemed that #4 got burned repeatedly by his receiver, or was simply not in position to make a play. I put that on the coaching staff, more so than the player. Granted, we held Oregon 20 points below their average, but that might have been a fluke. I know good teams have to win ugly on the road, so I’ll take a road win any day of the week. Still, I am not sure who the better team is and I think we should not be surprised if ND spanks us, especially now that they have a passing game.
By Blackjoy on 09.24.18 12:29pm
I share your sentiments on this
It was an amazing comeback, but it also exposed weaknesses on the team that I was truly surprised to see. Either Oregon is much better than we thought, and Herbert is truly a top NFL talent, or we have some issues on defense that strong teams will expose this season. It was mortifying to see how easily Herbert moved the offense down the field to score on their first four possessions. And they nearly did it again later in the 3rd quarter, which is when the tide changed and we clawed our way back into the game. Yes, the game was at Autzen; yes, Oregon played with a chip on its shoulder after last year’s shellacking; yes, every team can have a down day, Stanford included. But we did not look like a top ten team for at least 2 1/2 quarters of that football game. If Oregon goes down to Berkeley and loses, that will be a good barometer on where the Ducks are and where we are. If they win big against the Bears, that will confirm Oregon’s status as a very good team. Also, our game against Notre Dame in South Bend might be very revealing. I fully expected us to go into Eugene and grind out a workmanlike two TD victory. What happened was a huge surprise, and we are fortunate to have a tick in the win column after that one.
By Jeff Tarnungus on 09.24.18 1:14pm
Agree with most everything you all are saying about the game.
Stanford was in position to capitalize on any long odds that fell their way, and did. That’s coaching and grit. The more rational Oregon fans (yes, they exist) are happy with the way the team played overall, despite the result, but are looking for additional validation that they are as good as they looked for 3 quarters on Saturday. I suspect both fan bases are left questioning their teams a bit, but it seems you may have fewer questions than us.
By DanFoutsBeard on 09.24.18 4:11pm
Thanks for joining us over at RoT
We like guests because, as some have noted, we are a rather small community….
If Herbert regularly plays the way he did in the first 2 1/2 quarters of this game, this could be a very good year for the Oregon Ducks. There are kinks and wrinkles to be ironed out, but the talent and the spirit are there.
By Jeff Tarnungus on 09.25.18 9:28am
We really need less predictable playcalling
Starting from the 1st qtr if we are to survive the gauntlet of Nd and uw. We can’t expect to be gifted two fumbles for scores like Oregon did. Pls David Shaw and tavita, please Balance with more pass on first downs. I know Stanford’s identity is power football but clearly this year’s o line is not up for it. Pls pass more and open up running lanes with play action. With kj throwing 300+ yards and almost 80% completion and multiple td no picks, they will have to respect the pass. Please.
This could be our year for the cfp. Uw looks bearable and Nd is always a close game. Please please coaches take us to the next level.
By stanford6thman on 09.25.18 5:18am
Football is by nature both emotional and painful, as was this win to watch. However, it was a BIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIG win.
Oregon is a great football team, and from what I saw Saturday night, I now predict they will beat #11 Washington in Autzen on 10/13. Either way, that will be an amazing college football game, as will #7 Stanford at #8 Notre Dame this Saturday. Cheers, and Roll Red.
By Max McArthur on 09.24.18 2:11pm
Oy. Not to gaze into the crystal or anything, but...
…if the dawgs fall at Autzen (yes, please), we could potentially drop one in Seattle and still take the North, if we can keep Oski from being a spoiler (Beat Cal). Bonagura pegged us for Roses this week.
My team is 4-0, ranked #7 in the country and (currently) topping the P-12. Why do I not have goosebumps? And why have I never given a shit if we don’t make the CFP?
By Plan Man on 09.24.18 4:53pm
what's the order of tie-breakers?
bc stanford would be equal to both ducks and huskies in that scenario, right?
By hutre67 on 09.24.18 6:11pm
As far as #19 Oregon at #24 Cal this weekend, I think the Ducks beat the Bears by two scores or more on the road.
That is just my two cents anyway. Cheers y’all.
By Max McArthur on 09.24.18 2:24pm
I suspect you are right
Herbert, when hitting on all pistons, looks lethal. Cal has been priding itself on its D. Now comes a true test.
By Jeff Tarnungus on 09.24.18 3:20pm
notre dame
i hear stanford is a 5.5 point underdog? how does stanford perform against the spread when they’re the underdog?
By hutre67 on 09.25.18 8:13am
I don't know
Interesting line development: it started out at -3.5 ND and is now at -5.5.
By Jeff Tarnungus on 09.25.18 9:24am
From bleacherreport...
…"Stanford is 3-0 ATS the last three times it’s been lined as a dog against Notre Dame, including short outright upsets the last two seasons. In fact, the underdog is 6-0 ATS the last six games in this rivalry."
"Notre Dame is 0-4 ATS in its last four games at home vs teams with winning records."
By Plan Man on 09.25.18 10:01am
super fascinating
but, if stanford only loses by 5 points, they’ve beaten the spread, yet still lose.
i now realize i didn’t phrase my question the way i wanted. what i meant was – if stanford is the underdog, what’s their winning record?
i think in the notre dame case the result is the same, but what about in general? i feel like a couple years ago they were talking about having a 100% winning record when they’re +10 or greater?
By hutre67 on 09.25.18 12:09pm
My Biggest Concern About ND Is.....
Jetlag. Wonder when the Cardinal will arrive for the game? There is statistical support that teams flying East for games do less well and we have had some surprises in the past flying East.
I have watched all of the ND games this year and had no concerns until Ian Book became the QB. Their offense hummed last game with a lot of early down passes mixed up with runs. If we play soft coverage they will eat us up underneath, then gash us with a run. Book is very accurate and gets rid of the ball quickly. I would love to see our offense similarly mix it up more. We will need it.
By hoyaparanoia on 09.25.18 9:46am
My biggest concern is the refs
Seems that ND gets a LOT of bad calls in there favor when they are at home, regardless of who they play. I’m preparing for it mentally because I know it’s coming and there’s nothing we can do.
By Blackjoy on 09.25.18 12:21pm
Yes, this is a legitimate concern
The flags fly differently in the House of Knut.
By Jeff Tarnungus on 09.25.18 12:32pm
I believe it is spelled Knute
Also, aren’t the refs for this game from the Pac 12 when it is played at Notre Dame? If so, that will insure some horrible calls…
By Intellectual_Brutality on 09.25.18 9:18pm
Correct
I live in Austria, so sometimes I forget the silent "e" at the end…
By Jeff Tarnungus on 09.26.18 1:12am
The kick-off time is 07:30 PM EDT, which is 04:30 PM PDT, so jetlag should not be an issue.
I sure do hope our offense "mixes it up" more, as well. Costello can move the ball in big chunks if necessary. Let’s use that threat to open up some big runs for Dr. Love.
As for Book’s offensive production last game, let’s remember that this was Wake Forest, not Clemson. One Notre Dame fan was very skeptical about how Book would perform when faced with a legitimate defense.
Despite all this, I am not terrifically confident we will be able to pull off the upset in South Bend. It’s possible, but I think David Shaw will not pull out all the stops to win this one. In his universe, every conference game is more important than this one. If we have to be 5-1 after 6 games, then better a loss against the Irish than a loss against the Utes. So he will not make this a do-or-die game. In that context, he may decide to rest certain players that are nursing injuries and not play some starters the entire game to ensure they are 100% vs. Utah. After that, we get a bye before the gauntlet of the final six games (four of which are away).
Of course, if our offense gets off to a torrid start and we get up a couple of scores, that might change his thinking. But I still don’t think Shaw gives much value to the Natty discussion and our CFP chances, which would take a big hit if ND won this game. His primary goal: win the north and play for the Pac-12 championship. The rest is not under his control. And there he is certainly right.
By Jeff Tarnungus on 09.25.18 12:31pm
Hard To Win National Championships Unless.....
You approach every big game as a "must win" game. That is true. But it is certainly possible for Oregon to beat UW and then for us to lose to UW and still win the North and be in a strong position for the CFP (one loss) if we can win all of our other games. But that means winning at ND this week-end as well. While this game may be irrelevant for Pac 12 titles, it is really important for this season. We are likely to be favored to win in all of our remaining games – except possibly at UW. Pull that off, and we have a real shot at the CFP.
So yes, a loss against the Irish is better than a loss against the Utes, but I would rather have that perspective in retrospect that to approach the ND game with that mindset going in and manage the game accordingly.
And the flags WILL be an issue.
By hoyaparanoia on 09.25.18 1:54pm
Agree
I know Shaw will travel to South Bend looking for a W. That’s his nature. He would not be the winningest coach in Stanford history without this attitude. My view, however, is that he is always more concerned about conference games.
By Jeff Tarnungus on 09.25.18 2:58pm
Can't agree on Shaw's motivation.
I don’t think Shaw sees it that way at all. ND is probably the biggest recruiting rival we have. Bigger than USC and UCLA. Shaw knows victories over ND count more than any Pac-12 victory in terms of the national narrative. If Stanford wants to be a household name, beating ND is an annual requirement. I’m pretty sure Shaw has a winning record against ND. Wikipedia says 7 of the last 9 have been won by Stanford, including three straight. I see no evidence Shaw is holding back.
Instead, I think there is a practical limit as to what packages Shaw can change or implement in any given week of football. I’m betting the majority of these kids are actually doing school work and going to class and trying to pass their classes. A coach is better served by making fewer changes so that those changes are executed at a higher level, rather than a host of nuances that the players can’t execute.
I also don’t agree that Shaw needs to "mix it up more". I think he mixes it up fine. We need to execute better. On the first play from scrimmage in OT, Shaw ran the ball. Love should have had a great crease to run the ball. The play was set up perfectly, but the Stanford center lost his one vs one battle and got pushed back three yards. Burkett could not hold Jorden Scott and could not turn the nose guard and Scott was able to tackle Love for a 2 yard gain. Had Burkett won that battle, Love might have gotten 15 yards on 1st down.
As a philosophy, Stanford wants to go 50/50 run pass. Against Oregon, we threw more than we passed because we were losing. Let’s hope we can run more than we pass against ND.
By Blackjoy on 09.25.18 2:36pm
Good point on recruiting
I was not thinking of that dimension. I always hear Shaw saying that the team needs to focus on what it can control and not worry about bowl and CFP speculation. And I sense from various statements he has made that winning the north is always his primary goal; and that, in turn, leads to a chance to win the Pac-12. Everything else follows from that.
Regarding your point on execution, yes, I concur; but that is part of the problem right now: the O-line, as you correctly noted, is not executing. This is not ideal, but it is our current reality. I hope it changes, but until it does, we need to pass more (i.e., mix it up more).
By Jeff Tarnungus on 09.25.18 2:55pm
Shaw is trying to spin it.
Yes, I agree that you’re supposition is logical based on Shaw’s statements. However, I believe Shaw is forced into that mantra because so often we’ve lost games that take us out of the CFP early on. I also think Shaw wants the fans (and the administration) to recognize that winning the conference should not be either taken for granted, or dismissed as a consolation prize.
Its also possible that Shaw is trying to counteract a national perception that winning the P12 is not enough for the CFP. As one of the longest tenured Pac-12 coaches, it must irk him to no end to see how little respect the conference gets. Perhaps, he’s trying to convince others that winning the P12 should be as rewarding as winning the SEC.
When it comes to non-ND games, I think you’re probably more correct about Shaw’s approach. But I think Shaw wants to be beat ND as much as he wants to beat USC every year.
By Blackjoy on 09.25.18 3:36pm