As Bryce Love ran into the line over and over again, taking 18 carries for 29 yards, the tune seemed to be set for the Stanford Cardinal.
Last season, Stanford lost to USC and San Diego State when their quarterbacks combined for 252 passing yards in the two games. They lost again to Washington State when Love went for 69 yards, the quarterback position unable to compensate for Loves only poor outing of the season. In 2016, Washington and Washington State demolished Stanford; one Christian McCaffrey ground out 49 and 35 yards respectively.
Two years of data say this team cannot perform when the running back is anything less than miraculous, and even then, quarterback inefficiencies have still hampered the Cardinal. Going into 2018, the lack of defensive star power on the line put more emphasis on running the ball well and dominating time of possession.
But as San Diego State consistently bottled up the Stanford ground and pound, K.J. Costello opened up through the air, tearing into the Aztecs for 332 yards and four scores. Finally, the Cardinal had a contingency plan for when their running game fails, spearheaded by K.J. Costello.
J.J. Arcega-Whiteside made the Aztecs’ corners look silly going for a hat-trick, Trenton Irwin saved a scoring drive and a three-touchdown blowout did not even need the new speedster, Osiris St. Brown, to break out. Of all the surprises on offense, incredibly, impossibly, the Costello coming-of-age performance goes to the third or fourth seat.
Costello is everything that the Cardinal desperately needed from Ryan Burns and Keller Chryst over the past two seasons. Seeing it all come to fruition at long last, in a game Love only finds 29 yards, is poetic for the Cardinal nation. Yes, this was a team they were supposed to beat handily (going in favored by 14). Yes, part of the credit has to go to the clinic put on by Arcega-Whiteside and his 229 yards.
But it was so much what they needed at the exact time they needed it for a victory, that became a big deal, despite the competition or that it was the first game or that it was mainly to players dicing up the Aztecs.
Costello and company will meet with another surprise: the calm and collected J.T. Daniels.
For just the second time in school history, a true freshman took the field as the USC starting quarterback. Devoid of his performance were any moments of the youngster making the classic, first-time-here mistakes. He tossed for 282 yards and completed 62 percent of his passes. He was not responsible for any back-breaking turnovers, nor was he ever desperate or shaken. Daniels was surgical, leading the USC Trojans on nine scoring drives as Southern California cruised to a 22-point victory.
Stanford is not supposed to shake terrible running back performances. True freshmen quarterbacks are supposed to look shaky. Both meet Saturday in the one game of the weekend featuring a top 25 matchup.
Buckle up for a shootout
There is no reason to think that goal number one for USC is containing Love, especially considering the 275 yards and two touchdowns he posted against them in the pair of outings last season.
The distraction gives Stanford a fantastic matchup advantage, with tall receivers set to get plenty of one-on-one matchups with corners like Iman Marshall (6-foot-1) and Greg Johnson (5-foot-11). Both Irwin and Arcega-Whiteside are taller and have proven the ability to climb the ladder.
On the flipside, Alijah Holder, Stanford’s starting corner, will make his season start against USC, facing down the Trojans lineup packed with speed. Both Tyler Vaughns and Michael Pittman averaged 14 yards per catch last season and Amon-Ra St. Brown proved in his collegiate debut that he takes the top off a secondary (he also averaged 14 yards per catch in game one).
Linebacker Bobby Okereke impressed against SDSU, but the defensive line still lacks real teeth that can put continuous pressure on Daniels. Lack of an elite pass rush will give him opportunites to hit big throws downfield.
Prediction
In the leadup, the game has the makings of a 38-31 or 44-37 game, the winner being the quarterback who has the ball last. Both signal-callers have the opportunity for 300-yard nights, which means that every drive will hold added importance.
The x-factor in Stanford’s favor is both the overall size of the Cardinal receivers and the safety blanket of tight end Kaden Smith.
All of the receivers who will get playing time Saturday are 6-foot-2 or taller, meaning they have the height advantage over the starting corners of USC. Stanford moving their bully-ball football from the trenches to the air is the best case scenario for the Cardinal. Costello also has the benefit of a tight end who can kill USC in the red zone, catching five scores last season and set for a big year in 2018. Tyler Petite, is far more of a blocking tight end, only catching 23 balls in 2017 and not a viable lifeline for the young Daniels.
Stanford has the height, the weapons and the quarterback for victory.
Comments
Actually..
I am not expecting a shootout. That’s not to say the game won’t be close, but I just don’t see USC putting up the numbers they did against the lowly UNLV team. I think this will be the first game of a few where Daniels will truly look like a freshman. You say we still lack an elite pass rush? I say we had 5 sacks on Saturday against a relatively tough SDSU o-line. Maybe not elite, but much better than expected, I think. I think we get pressure on Daniels all game and he makes the few mistakes that a true freshman QB normally would. They faced UNLV at home! I think you’re giving them a bit too much credit for that win. This is their freshman QBs first road game against much better competition. He won’t look as he did at home against a much weaker team. Coach Anderson will dial up some stunts and blitzes that Daniels has yet to see at the college level and this will leave him shaken in his first true competition of the season.
On offense, we do what they give us for the second week in a row. I think Bryce is more successful this week as USCs run defense hasn’t been great as of late and if they decide to stack that box we will light them up the same as last Saturday. It may be close for the first half, but then we roll in this one at home. Stanford- 38 USC- 27
By IamCardinal on 09.05.18 11:44pm
SDSU >> UNLV
San Diego State has been to 8 straight bowl games and can beat Power 5 teams on any given weekend.
UNLV would be overmatched against most of the Pac 12.
By atg_commish on 09.06.18 2:15pm
Exactly. SC won’t look nearly as Sharp against superior competition.
By IamCardinal on 09.06.18 3:23pm
I agree with both that passing games will be the difference
Stanford’s linebackers are much faster than UNLV’s. If they can stop the USC run game, that means they will have opportunities to blitz an inexperienced quarterback, coming at him at far greater speed than he saw in high school. In those situations, he will naturally go to his safety blanket, his high school teammate Amon-Ra St. Brown. In all likelihood, he will be covered by either Holder or Adebo, both of whom ran faster 40 times than St. Brown did in high school. Adebo looked particularly fast last week against SDSU. Add to that Lance Anderson, a gifted defensive coordinator, who has no doubt looked at every snap Daniels has made in the last year. It should not be easy pickings for the USC passing game.
On the flip side, USC will no doubt blitz more than usual. Their linebackers are good and they saw the effect it had on Bryce Love’s running game. My guess is they put Iman Marshal on JJ and he pushes the envelope in terms of defensive pass interference. But that means someone else has to cover Kaden Smith, Parkinson, and/or Wedington. (I expect USC’s second best cover DB will take Trent Irwin.) If Costello can get his timing down with Parkinson (a few times Parkinson went one way and the pass another), that will be very hard for USC to cover. And not just in the red zone. If USC is forced to drop linebackers into coverage over the middle, then Bryce will shine.
Can’t wait to see it unfold this Saturday.
By SU74 on 09.06.18 9:23am
Saw somewhere that weddington is out
By charliefoy on 09.06.18 1:04pm
I hope Love can be Love vs. the USC defense
The inability to run against the box—although it certainly opened up the passing game—wasn’t a great sign for the OL at this stage of the season.
Also, I just realized I’m on a flight during almost all the game, noooooooooo!
By worldblee on 09.06.18 9:39am
Not against this defense
Stanford 31, USC 16
By atg_commish on 09.06.18 2:14pm
No shootout
Instead, it may become a beatdown. SU played a much tougher team last Sat. and won decisively using an approach not usually their forte. USC won big, but gave up many points and yards galore rushing. If Stanford comes out rushing to effect, and also using what seems a potent passing attack to keep them off balance, it could quickly become lopsided. I’ve opined elsewhere that I think the D is faster and stouter than we had reason to believe. If this holds up, SC is in real trouble. (I wonder which of the St. Brown brothers is the faster and more skilled; that could be one of the fun aspects of this game).
By jafco99 on 09.06.18 9:47pm
The Cardinal needs to establish their passing game early
SDSU has laid the blueprint for shutting down Bryce Love. Expect USC to do the same. Costello’s passing will need to be sharp and consistent. He will need to find other WRs because JJ Acega will be covered. If Costello is able to pass, the running game will open for Love and Stanford wins decisively!
Looking forward to the game……..
By Slot_Man22 on 09.06.18 11:25pm