Matt Vassar: Look, I get it. USC beat us twice last season. But their first win was in the cozy confines of the Coliseum. And once the game got moved to a neutral field, USC could only eke out a very narrow victory—with a bit of help from the Pac-12 refs. This time around, not only will USC have to do it on the road at Stanford Stadium, but they’ll also have to do it while breaking in a new QB. Forgive me for being skeptical. Stanford 30, USC 27.
Charlie Foy: Stanford can’t mess around this week. Although ranked 17th in the nation, USC is highly underrated this year. Their new quarterback, JT Daniels, is the real deal and will pick apart the Stanford secondary with his arsenal of weapons. On defense, the Trojans boast two threatening linebackers, Cameron Smith and Porter Gustin. Overall, I think these teams are evenly matched, and the game will ultimately be won by coaching. I’m picking David Shaw over Clay Helton. Stanford 38, USC 34.
Kyle Fierro: This will be a tough one. On one hand, USC just gave up over 300 rushing yards to a school that is not known for being good at football. They are starting a quarterback who by all accounts should be starting his senior year of high school right now. Stanford pivoted beautifully and beat the spread last week despite their best player having his worst career game. On the other hand, I just have the willies this week. I don’t expect Love to fully bounce back from that performance especially because USC brings NFL talent to its defensive line. I don’t expect JJ Arcega-Whiteside to repeat his Herculean effort against more athletic and sizable DBs. I was not impressed with our offensive line last week and Stanford is still missing its starting center. I also would not be surprised to see our emerging defensive line take a step back when facing a more formidable opponent. I anticipate a competitive, high scoring game, with many USC breakaway TDs and a more balanced Stanford offense. I’m just not feeling this one. USC 45, Stanford 38.
nerdnation23: This game has the makings of another classic. The question is which week 1 game was more of a fluke. While USC has the better athletes and the best LB, Stanford is the better team and I think USC has a better chance at giving up 300 rushing yards than Love getting shut down. Stanford wills its way to a fun but tough win. Stanford 31, USC 28.
David Ta: USC is a blue blood that gets blue-chip talent. Stanford happens to be well-coached enough to match up with USC. This will be a close one. USC will have to pick their poison between letting Bryce Love or the stud Stanford receivers run wild. Our defense, however, managed to bottle up SDSU in the second half. They will also be able to bottle up USC on sheer talent alone. This could be high scoring. I think the key to Stanford winning, though, is a young JT Daniels making a few mistakes that give the elite Stanford offense enough chances to overwhelm USC. Stanford 45, USC 42.
Marlaina Calhoun: As I write this, I’m still torn on who will win his game. There are so many stats out there between these two teams that trend in either direction. On one hand, K.J. Costello, JJ Arcega-Whiteside, and the rest of the receiving corps came out right on time to help overcome the blitzing wall that SDSU put up against Bryce Love. But on the other hand, USC seems to have weapons on offense as well, including a not-so-shaken freshman quarterback in JT Daniels and senior back, Aca’Cedric Ware. In this kind of matchup, no points are taken for granted and I can see it coming down to a field goal—and USC’s Chase McGrath went 5/5 last week. It’s a very close call but I’m going to give Stanford the edge, but I’m counting on a few things: Daniels making some sort of freshman-like costly turnover and Bryce Love showing the Heisman voters that he’s not here for second place again. Coach Shaw finds a way to get Love the ball and go to work. Stanford’s defense digs deep again and shakes up Daniels. Stanford 27, USC 24.
Colton Molesky: The Cardinal did something they have failed to do the past two seasons: find success when their running backs have not. The Cardinal should have all the confidence in the world with Costello’s performance, J.J. Arcega-Whiteside’s dominance and the fact that Bryce Love will not be held back for long. The height advantage the Stanford receivers have over USC’s corners is another wrinkle in their favor. On the defensive side, Bobby Okereke can antagonize J.T. Daniels and Alijah Holder’s return gives the Cardinal plenty of depth on the back end to play with coverages. It will be a high-scoring thriller, and Stanford will prevail. Stanford 45, USC 37.
Comments
Lots of respect for USC in these predictions
Rule of Tree staff go 6 of 7 in favor of Stanford, with no prediction exceeding an 8-point victory. Most see it coming down to a field goal or thereabouts.
Interestingly, the staff at Conquest Chronicles has a somewhat different take. The 9 staff on the USC site are split 4/5, with the majority favoring USC in a close one. Two of the staff members favoring Stanford predict a two TD victory for the Cardinal, citing USC’s youth as their main concern. I tend to agree with them. Stanford should have a decisive advantage in terms of experience and the benefit of playing at home. For me, this equates to a victory in the 10-17 point range, something like 35-21.
Ultimately, the outcome of this game will depend heavily on how J.T. Daniels performs in his first big game on the road. If the Stanford defense can rattle him early and pull him out of his rhythm, the Cardinal might cruise to a comfortable victory. If, however, Daniels is some kind of precocious football genius with #1 NFL draft potential, then the contest could go either way, with the game coming down to the final possession (as so often in recent history). Personally, I consider the odds higher that Daniels will makes a few costly rookie mistakes as he settles into his role as a starter; and in tonight’s game, he will be facing a defense that is relearning the lost art of partying in the backfield.
It’s also perhaps worth mentioning that both teams celebrated three TD victories in their openers, but that Stanford played the much tougher opponent (SDSU vs. UNLV). Opening games are not always a valuable yardstick, but these two opponents are both from the MWC; and SDSU has consistently been at the top of the pack, while UNLV has been somewhere in the middle.
Stanford has won 8 of the last 13 games, two of which were played for the Pac-12 championship (2015 Stanford, 2017 USC). More recently, USC has won four of the last seven (2013, 2014 and twice in 2017). It really is a rivalry now. And as a long-time Stanford football fan (and alumnus) who remembers the days when a Cardinal victory over USC was a rarity to be celebrated, I have very much enjoyed seeing a stretch in which Stanford has been favored as often as it has been the underdog.
That said, there is some recent history here, too. In the last thirteen games between Stanford and USC, the underdog has won six times (Stanford 2007, Stanford 2009, Stanford 2012, USC 2013, USC 2014, Stanford 2015 1st game). The favored team has only carried the day seven times (USC 2008, Stanford 2010, 2011, 2015 champ. game, 2016 and USC 2 times 2017). That’s a strong rivalry.
By Jeff Tarnungus on 09.08.18 9:12am
It's too hard to call the first real game of the season
Until we see Stanford play against a real Pac-12 opponent we don’t really know what we have this year. The flexibility of going to the air to exploit a size mismatch in the secondary is a good sign given that Shaw’s stubborness costs Stanford a game or two every year (which Shaw probably doesn’t regret as he is bull-headed about making a point to play the way he wants to play).
To me the game probably comes down to Dr. Love’s ability to break free for TD runs. Without this, I see USC as being favored. But if Love has two big TD runs, I think Stanford can win.
Either way, the game will be pretty much over by the time my plane lands tonight so I’m going to miss what should be a great matchup!
By worldblee on 09.08.18 10:05am
Though I agree that we still don't have a true indication of how capable both teams are
I still consider the SDSU contest a real game: those Aztecs are tough and knocked us off last year. A victory over SDSU is not to be taken for granted. I am currently watching Oregon just destroy Portland State: that is not a real game. It is not really clear why such games are contested (and I may be saying the same thing next week when Stanford plays UC Davis).
By Jeff Tarnungus on 09.08.18 1:05pm
Not enough info to say which way it’ll go
Both teams are not same as last year’s teams. Both lost some key players and gained some fresh talent.
What happened last season is irrelevant. Before each game, i often think of the disclaimer that the investment companies use "past performance is no guarantee of future results." This applies to our stanford team as well.
If i was a betting man, i would take experience over raw talent – i think Stanford wins today.
By StanfordAA99 on 09.08.18 12:40pm
USC is very underrated
I think Stanford struggles tonight. SC’s defensive line will pose lots of problems to our OL, especially without our starting center. The SC front 7 in general together with our less than stellar OL (currently) will stuff up the running game … yes, I know they gave up a lot of yards last week against UNLV … so what? They will almost certainly play MUCH better against us than they did against UNLV. Unlikely that Costello and JJAW have a performance similar to what happened against SDSU, given SC’s talented athletes in the defensive backfield. Stanford will be very challenged in this game, much more than the line suggests. Best hope is that SC struggles offensively, but that’s more of a hope than a real expectation. In my view this could go either way, but I’d not be surprised to see SC win, and perhaps by 7+.
The rankings mean nothing after week one, and Stanford is almost certainly not the #10 team in the country — we started with a ranking that was too high and have benefited from that, and SC has been the reverse, but the teams are pretty much even I think.
By Brendan Ross on 09.08.18 3:18pm
Looks a dead even contest on paper - Stanford by a FG
SC has a pretty good front 7 but were somehow soft against the run last game. On the flip side I really like our back 8 with the return of alijah holder. The DL did look settled once the early game jitters subsided. The offense for both teams looks capable of scoring lots of points but I give that edge to Stanford (first time in a while I can make such a claim). Will likely come down to the special teams plays and I hope jet toner has his legs warmed up for that game winning FG.
By layman on 09.08.18 4:32pm
Interesting here that no one had a clue...
By Blackjoy on 09.08.18 10:21pm
And your prediction?
I am looking for that perspicacious individual who foresaw USC’s 3 point offensive output. At least I got the spread right! (14 points) I just thought there were eighteen points of additional offense to be had on both sides. I also predicted that true freshman Daniels was likely to struggle and spend some time attending a party in his own backfield, and I nailed that perfectly. But such anemic offensive output? Who predicted that?
By Jeff Tarnungus on 09.09.18 1:38am
I didnt see your prediction that SC would score 3 points
By Brendan Ross on 09.09.18 3:36am
You're right, because I would be deluding myself if I thought I could predict the score.
Look, I’m not sitting here pretending I’m better skilled at predicting scores, just that people (like the guys who write/get paid to make predictions) who put themselves out there as experts, usually have no clue what they are talking about. This is true on ESPN and Fox as well. Media folks buy into narratives, regardless of whether the actual game facts support that.
Of all the games Stanford has played vs USC in the Shaw error, I felt the best about this one, as I told several people this week. Stanford’s defense vs SDSU was better this year than it was last year. I also thought it was ridiculous the praise that was put on JT Daniels, but that’s typical for how the media treats USC QB’s. In Shaw’s post-game interview, he was seemingly annoyed with how the media constantly praises USC’s athletes as being better than everyone else’s. JT Daniels put up points on….UNLV. And that was with a running game. But no, I would not have predicted 3 points by USC either.
Truth is, Clay Helton essentially gifted that game to Stanford. If he had punted the ball before the half, it is unlikely that Stanford scores. That means early in the second half, Stanford is only up 7-3. Given we only scored one field goal in the second half, Stanford would have been up 10-3 most of that second half and Helton could have run the ball more. So I find it ironic, that Helton went for it on the 40 and it probably cost him the game, when people on this forum routinely denigrate Shaw for punting in that situation a la Northwestern.
By Blackjoy on 09.09.18 4:00am