The Stanford Cardinal football team finished with a narrow win over Pitt at the Sun Bowl and ends their season with a 9-4 record. Now that the season is complete, we’ve had less than a few hours to reflect. On what note did the Stanford Cardinal finish the season? Looking back on the course of the year, how do we digest what all happened in determining the ultimate question everyone involved with a program has: was this a successful year?
For some, a winning record and bowl win means, of course it was. To others, maybe this is a rebuilding year the Cardinal can improve from and “next year, we’ll be better”. “Next year, we’ll make the playoff”. And that’s what fans should want. No fan wants to settle, we want it all. We want the ‘ship. But if that goal is out of reach, when it’s no longer in our control, how are we measuring our teams “success”?
Now, in the old days (and by “old” I mean about 10 years ago or so) a 9-4 record, that is a good season. That’s a great season. That’s a record to hold your head up high and to brag to your friends about when you get back to the office on January 2nd .
But times have changed and in the era of the Playoff and social media instant satisfaction, that record won’t cut it, sadly, for a lot of fans. Not all fans – but many fans. It’s “playoff or bust” for many and teams are scrambling to try and convince their casual fans that even if your team isn’t in the playoff, there’s still reason to have a great year and root for them. This of course, plays into the bigger conversation about expansion for the CFP. Coach Shaw has been vocal in supporting this idea and for good reason. When teams have a winning season, a good season, but don’t make the playoff, it causes fans to say, “whelp, not good enough”.
Coming into the year, Stanford seemed to have found their quarterback in K.J. Costello and Bryce Love had just come off a season arguably better than any player at Stanford ever. The secondary were sharp and turned out to be better than most expected. And the receiving game? Wow. K.J. to J.J. was basically trademarked and hash-tagged all season. The offensive line as many knew, would be rebuilding, but they were nothing to shame at, by any stretch.
But fast forward to the game on a beautiful Texas day and as you scrolled through Twitter or any blog, you saw comments on how this Stanford game versus Pitt, might be one of the most forgettable. And they were not necessarily wrong; the game was not breathtaking offensively by any means. But on the other hand, it was much like we’ve seen all year, in many respects.
Coach Shaw said it best in his post-game interview: “This game was very indicative of our entire season”. He went on to make references to how this team overcame injuries, wins were not always pretty, but Stanford found ways to get the job done and get the win. The Cardinal pulled off the Sun Bowl victory without key players including Trent Irwin at wideout, left tackle Walker Little and tight end Kaden Smith.
But why has it been “forgettable”? To some, it clearly feels that way. There’s no right or wrong answer here.
Is it because Stanford has went to the state of Texas three years in a row for their bowl games and maybe fans are tired of looking at the same “type” of bowl games the last few years? Was the absence of Bryce Love from the last game of the year enough to push the casual Stanford fan away to what many would describe as an “off” year for the Cardinal? There’s been an injured Bryce Love, injured offensive line and not to mention the “off” year on the home schedule. The Cardinal fell to four teams this year who were all ranked within the top 17 at the time of their respective meeting. Maybe this season didn’t have that “sex appeal” that seasons have had in recent years.
Stanford beat the teams they were statistically suppose to, for the most part, but didn’t necessarily have any “signature” wins. Add all these things up, and maybe, it has been perceived as a gritty year. And gritty, is in most forms, a compliment.
In games, for example versus Oregon, you saw moments of when a team and its players fought tooth and nail for the win, and with a little bit of luck (which never hurts anyone) pull off great moments of maturity and smart football. Gritty, ugly wins and come back-from-behind, the momentum not in their favor, one percent chance of winning, kinda wins.
But then, back to back losses to the Washington schools, starting the very next week. The health of a team can have a negative impact on everyone from players, to the team staff. It has the aura to dampen the mood of a locker room. Injuries and uncertainty in your best players can leave a film of doubt from the start of practice, until the last second of season, if you let it. But Stanford was able to find ways to win even with some of those uncertainties.
Cameron Scarlett stepping up when needed and instead of grumbling about being Love’s backup the past two seasons, steps in and grits forward. The young o-line finding their chemistry together and taking on the Stanford tradition of the “Tunnel Workers Union” to finding ways to give the offense just enough space and time. Paulson Adebo showing the country night in and night out that he is a force and became the leader of the secondary.
Maybe it was the Pac-12 as a whole, who beat up on each other again this year. Washington took on Ohio State in the Rose Bowl when it’ was all said and done but their first real test of the year versus the closest thing that the Pac-12 will get to “we want Bama” chants, started with a loss to an unranked Auburn. Not exactly the way a conference wants to start off their primetime broadcast to the East Coast audience.
For as many doubts and stumbles the Cardinal had, remember: David Shaw was able to compile a 9-4 final record being, at best, 80 percent healthy on and off all season long. But even if you think this year was “uneventful” or “boring” or a “disappointment” remember that Stanford went on to win their last four games and reach at least nine victories for the fourth straight year.
No matter what era of football you’re in, that’s a great feat. Shaw takes these Stanford teams, year in and year out, to winning seasons and bowl appearances unlike many. He’s able to compete with the likes of traditional power programs, year after year, and find the kids who can not only succeed at Stanford athletically, but more importantly, academically, and win games. His teams win and go on to either play in the NFL or, most likely, be and do other things outside of football. Beyond any record. Using their experiences as student athletes, to contribute to society.
In a day and age when we take winning for granted, spoiled by past Stanford greats and in the eye of the uprising storm of this program, this year didn’t end that bad at all. In fact it’s exactly what players and fans strive for.
You know what’s “forgettable”? An 1-11 record in 2006. A little over a decade later and Stanford has made what was almost nothing into something, great.
Comments
The record is misleading this year.
The win over Oregon was due to a brain fart by Super Mario, who should have just been running down the clock. Stanford capitalized on it, that’s true, but 99% of the time that’s a game we lose because the opposing coach just takes a knee for a couple of downs and takes the W. The win in the Sun Bowl was pretty much entirely based on luck. Now, luck plays a role in any sporting event, but really, the 9-win record here is really more like 7 earned wins and 2 very questionable/fluky ones. Injuries certainly played a role in this, but one thing that seems clear is that the coaching transition on the offensive line didn’t really work — yes, there were injuries, but there were also level 1 depth chart players there, and they couldn’t really block the run all season — when that happens, coaching should come under scrutiny.
The fact that the performance this year dropped off to the degree that it did is even more troubling given how weak the conference overall was this year, as was demonstrated in the bowl performance (only one impressive win, our lucky win, and Oregon’s not terribly impressive baseball score win) and non-conference schedule performance of the conference overall during the season as well. There’s been a very large dropoff from, say, 2015 in pretty much all phases of the game for our team, and if the conference hadn’t also deteriorated across the board, results would have been uglier than they were this season. That’s a sobering thought given the likelihood of improvement at several teams next year as compared with this year.
As for the Sun Bowl itself, it’s true that non-playoff bowls have lost their luster due to the playoff, and the fact that the playoff makes these games meaningless exhibition games, something that the players themselves have picked up on given how many of them are now choosing not to play in them across the board (a trend which is inevitable and understandable, and which should not be blamed on the players). That in itself makes the games less interesting and the results less meaningful. (for example, was the WVU result really meaningful given that Grier sat out?).
Expanding the playoff is likely to happen eventually, and will create more pressure on players from more teams to play in those games, but given where CFB is at currently, would expanding to 8 teams really make much of a difference in the results? At the present time, there is a rather large talent gap in the sport, with a handful of programs having the best talent and depth in the country, and everyone else, even other very good to excellent teams, not being able to compete with them. Currently that’s obviously Bama and Clemson, but it won’t always be those two in the future. However, it seems likely that, given the way recruiting works in CFB, there will almost always be a situation where 1-3 teams stockpile the lion’s share of the talent, at all levels of the depth chart, because they can, and because those players want to play for one of those 2-3 teams. Add to that the arms race over facilities and coaches (anyone recently look at how many additional coaches and player development/QC staff Alabama has?), and the gap just grows. This is even worse for the teams in our conference, because of the mismanagement that has led to persistent and growing revenue gaps vis-a-vis the other Power 5 leagues, but really it isn’t the case that most of the teams in the B1G or B12 are doing any better at competing with the handful of top teams. This was also the situation before the playoff era, of course, but it was masked to a certain degree because those top teams only played the one bowl game (sometimes against the designated #2, and sometimes not), whereas in the playoff system the dropoff between a team like Alabama/Clemson and the semifinal challengers-du-jour has been generally rather stark and shocking — there’s just a chasm there, and it appears to be yawning ever wider.
I don’t think that most Stanford fans expect Stanford to realistically compete with Alabama and Clemson — after all, Oklahoma and Ohio State aren’t doing that very well, either, and we are never going to be Oklahoma or Ohio State consistently. I do think that many fans would like the program to compete most years for the division and therefore the conference title, with a view to the Rose Bowl. I think in that context a year like 2018 is what "down" year looks like for Stanford in that vein (again I see it more as a 7-win season with 2 fluky wins than a 9-win season), with the range running from 6-7 win seasons in down years to an average of 9 wins, and 10 or more in great years. This is more doable for us given our constraints and priorities. But it will be hard to do that if we get into a pattern of going back to 6-ish or so wins as a baseline — we have to take care to avoid that because it will then become harder to attract both player and coaching talent to get to the kinds of goals I think many of our fans see as realistic for us.
By Brendan Ross on 01.02.19 8:19am
I don't think you can take away wins any more than you can take away losses
However, there’s no doubt that Stanford was rather ‘meh’ this year compared to expectations.
By worldblee on 01.02.19 9:09am
Yes and no. Wrong about Stanford, right about CFP
Not even remotely correct. KJ’s completion percentage was 35%. That was not because Pitt has an NFL quality backfield. Yet, Shaw adjusted and figured out how to get Scarlett 90+ yards rushing and then used that to leverage the passing game…just enough. That is coaching/playcalling at its finest.. I actually think it worked to our advantage to have Love sit out because our run blocking was not sufficient when the opposing team sold out to stop the run.
The Sun Bowl victory was a result of Shaw understanding how important it is to run the ball even when your passing game has been your bread and butter. Shaw has admitted this has not been a year of Shaw ball, but he found his way back to it when he needed to. That isn’t luck and the failure to recognize that is what separates great coaches from mediocre coaches.
Stanford loss to legimtate top 25 programs. Neither UW nor WSU were "weak" teams. Notre Dame went to the CFP and Utah would have probably gone to the Rose Bowl if their starting QB and RB had played in the title game as they played against us. Additionally, UW got away with a blatant PI to make a game changing INT and Utah got away with a fumble on it opening drive that was incorrectly called an incomplete pass. Yes, we should have lost the Oregon game, but also should have won the Utah or WSU and UW games and that makes us a 10 win team with losses to WSU, ND, and Oregon (who has the potential #1 pick in 2019 draft).
For the first time, Shaw has talked about injuries being a factor where historically it hasn’t. These things happen. Back in 2017, a few of us looked at our DL and said we don’t have any palymakers returning and that would crush us. Nevertheless, Stanford’s defense has had tremendous games. Had our running game been even 2/3rds of what it was last year, we probably beat everyone but ND and then maybe even ND.
Herbet had his best game against us. Nevertheless, he’s still pegged as a top 5 if he were to declare.
And yet, against Pitt, we essentially run for 100 yards and it’s the difference in the game. I honestly think had Bryce not come back, we would have run the ball better. Opposing teams sold out to stop the run game to such an extent that JJ-AW tied a Stanford record for TD receptions. How was this guy getting single coverage past the halfway point? Because of Love (the Tight Ends also helped). I think JJ was our first 1000 yard receiver in almost a decade.
Sure, when your qualifier is eternity, you aren’t exaclty going out on a limb. Until the SEC is forced to play 9 conference games or the SEC and Ohio St is busted for its rampant paying of players, it’s unlikely to happen. Alabama crushing teams tells us that an 8 team play-off changes nothing.
Agreed, any fans with a grip on the reality and how the SEC cheats should be concerned if we are regularly fielding 11 win teams.
With Shaw as the coach, we should bank on seven wins and then five games which are up for grabs or a function of circumstance (UW, USC, Oregon, ND having a Heisman contender on their team or Stanford suffering critical injuries).
By Blackjoy on 01.02.19 9:37pm
I rate it as a pretty good year, but not a pretty, pretty good year
My biggest concern isn’t the record this year, though, but more the lack of an identity to build on. It felt like a transition year with Love being out half the year—but no heir apparent stood out. Who will be the #1 and #2 receivers next year? How long will Adebo stay in school before he goes pro? Assuming KJ sticks around, will it be for just one more year?
I just have no idea what next year’s team will look like, and what they’ll play like (other than the fact they’ll run the ball every time if they’re up by even a single point with 5 minutes left).
By worldblee on 01.02.19 9:14am
Judge success by Attendance @ Stanford Stadium
By Dixon74 on 01.02.19 11:44am
Don't let Shaw off the hook
First, excellent analysis by Brendan Ross.
Not sure I think the same thing about Marlaina’s opinions, however. Comparing Stanford football’s success to past failures is misdirected. Now that Stanford is the "it" college in the country and the admission office allows offers to be made much earlier to athletes than the rest of the applicant pool, Stanford should continue to recruit well. Sure, it can’t get the 5 star, recreation majors that Alabama and other SEC schools pull in every year, but next year’s Stanford team will have 4 five star players, and 35 four star recruits on the roster. At least two, four/five star recruits at every position except center and safety. [There will be 6 four star receivers and 5 four star cornerbacks next year.] Getting players is not the problem.
The problem (and the thing that vexes long time Stanford fans the most) is what happens to those players when they come on board. Relatively few football players leave after three years, and several stay for five years. Sure, unlike some other schools, they all have to attend real classes and can’t concentrate on football all the time. But that applies to every student/athlete at Stanford. Yet, women’s volleyball, men’s and women’s soccer, men’s and women’s water polo, women’s tennis, and women’s swimming have all won national championships since Shaw has been at Stanford. Why? Great athletes, sure, but consistently great coaching on every one of these teams. The players uniformly get better every year because of that coaching and teaching. Compare Shaw to Tara Vandeveer. Okay, I admit she’s one of the two best women’s basketball coaches of all time. But her teams (like Mike Montgomery’s on the men’s side years ago) consistently play better as the year progresses and as the players advance each year. She is obviously a terrific game coach, but she’s one of the finest teachers of the game.
With all the money Shaw and his staff receive every year, it is simply not too much to expect the same from his program as well. Shaw is a wonderful ambassador for Stanford. Measured, calm, intelligent. A man who stands up for (and frequently over praises) his players. An excellent recruiter. But there is a lot of room for improvement on his part. He took the ball out of the hands of the best college QB in the country in the 2012 Fiesta Bowl, costing Stanford the game. He continued to plow into the Michigan State line at the 2014 Rose Bowl game, costing the team a win. And he simply did not prepare his offense prior to that dismal first half of this year’s Sun Bowl. He’s also the one responsible for bringing in the new (and highly ineffective) offensive line coach and promoting an ineffective QB coach to ineffective offensive coordinator.
A playoff berth against semi-pro college teams is not really a realistic expectation. But a Pac 12 championship is. Even with next year’s brutal schedule. The raw material is there. Time to step up your game David, and teach, coach, and prepare them.
By SU74 on 01.02.19 12:15pm
Somewhat delusional
1. All those other programs require around 20 or less athletes. How many NC’s has the baseball program won since Shaw’s been here? Football requires too many athletes and suffers too many injuries for Stanford to be able to match Clemson, Alabama, Ohio St. All those programs, are paying players under the table, and if you don’t realize that, then you’re living in an alter reality. In addition, because Stanford plays USC and UCLA ever year, we have decidedly harder schedule than the vast majority of other schools.
2. Fundamental difference between football and basketball recruiting. Every kids who is good at football and basketball has a legitimate option to play professionally, even women’s basketball. This is not as true for other sports. Will there is a pro volleyball circuit, most of those players will value a Stanford education much more than their counterparts in basketball and football. The bottom line is that the Stanford degree offers a significant benefit to a female soccer player who might go pro versus a male football player who could legitimately go pro. As a result, the recruiting advantage is not comparable.
3. The programs who consistently win NC’s in basketball and football are cheating. I can’t prove this, but you have to be blind not to recognize this. Lance Armstrong, the Patriots, etc.
By Blackjoy on 01.02.19 9:57pm