Despite a bye week, Stanford seems to be in a worse position, in terms of injuries, than they were before. KJ Costello is out, Davis Mills is questionable, and the Cardinal only have six healthy linemen. Will the injury bug lead to a Stanford loss?
The biggest question of the game is Mills. Some would argue that he’s better than Costello, and I think it’s safe to say he’s better than Jack West (at least today). Stanford’s quarterback production would probably severely drop off if Mills can’t suit up. Mills led the Cardinal to victory with his efficient passing versus Washington, and when he got hurt, David Shaw resorted to running the ball.
No matter who suits up behind center for the Cardinal, Shaw will likely rely on the run game anyway. UCLA’s rush defense is not great and ranks eighth in the PAC-12 with 162.7 yards per game. After seeing Cameron Scarlett steamroll through the Husky defense and knowing he’s well rested following the bye week, Shaw will trust his run game against the shaky UCLA defense.
UCLA has question marks of their own. Their starting quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson is questionable, and he is a much better quarterback than backup Austin Burton. Thompson-Robinson was electric in their game versus Washington State, throwing for 507 yards and leading the team to 67 points. Meanwhile, Burton struggled in the team’s loss versus Oregon State.
Ultimately, whoever starts behind center for UCLA might run into trouble (literally). The line for UCLA has allowed 15 sacks this season, and Stanford routinely made life difficult for Jacob Eason in their last game versus Washington. The Cardinal front seven should be able to replicate that success.
I predict that if Mills plays the Cardinal win easily, despite their injuries on the offensive line. The UCLA defense is far worse than any other defense the Cardinal have played thus far, and Mills should take advantage of it. If West plays, this game will come down to David Shaw vs Chip Kelly, and I think Shaw has Kelly figured out.
Comments
I like your optimism
Given that the team is struggling with all of those injuries, this is a bold prediction. Make it so!
By g8tgod on 10.16.19 2:37pm
Offensive Line injuries a bigger concern
The bigger concern in regards to injuries should be those on the OL. Since we’re only down to 6 lineman, if one of them gets injured we could find ourselves in serious trouble. I have no qualms that Jack will do just fine against UCLA. In case you haven’t seen his HS tape, check it out. The kid can definitely play. Moreover, Shaw seems to have complete faith in him and we were only running the ball at the end of the Washington game because that’s what Shaw does EVERY single time we have a 2 score lead in the second half.
By StanfordRico on 10.16.19 2:50pm
Preach on...
I know and it was so delicious. I hope for every game to end with nothing but straight running plays.
By Blackjoy on 10.16.19 4:28pm
Cameron.
Nuff Ced…
By Plan Man on 10.16.19 4:57pm
The advanced stats take
Actually I saw the advanced stats from the game from Bill connelly and it was interesting to see that it was the pass game that was responsible for the win more than the run game that we leaned on in the last quarter. The run game success rate was infact less than average and explosives nonexistent. The pass game success rate esp on standard downs coupled with the explosive plays to Simi made the huskies soft against the run.
By layman on 10.17.19 8:42am
I think that type of analysis has fatal flaws
I’ve seen this type of analysis before. The one I saw was a Next Gen(?) analysis that looked at the value of a run play versus a pass play based on the probability differential of scoring a TD as a result of the play. I don’t think it’s informative. I don’t think it can account for the psychological effect of a consistent power running attack has on the opposing team.
Look at WSU last year. Had we been able to chew up more clock by running the ball, we probably win that game because we would have limited the other teams possessions. So while the running game doesn’t produce the points in a stat analysis, that analysis fails to account for the things a power run game facilitates.
If you need more proof, go look at the Seahawk. Russell Wilson’s best number come when the running game is working. In their sole loss this season, Russell threw the ball 50 times. People have tried to argue that Russell is such an efficient passer, Seattle is giving up points by not having him throw the ball more. But it doesn’t work that way. Seahawks had a win where RW threw the ball 23 times and had 4 TD and 0 INTs. But throwing it twice as much didn’t get him 8 TDs.
Short version: Be very skeptical about what people are insisting the stats mean.
By Blackjoy on 10.17.19 3:36pm
Well, we were...
…also running the ball because statistics assume that a talented, but still green QB, subbing in Q4, might make a mistake. That and the fact that our man pounding the rock was sort of in Beast Mode…
By Plan Man on 10.16.19 5:13pm
That’s what Shaw does..
Every single time we have ANY kind of lead in the second half. Lol ♂️ I can’t tell you how many times I’ve been pulling out my hair hoping for us to get a 2 score lead while Shaw runs clock with a whole quarter to go. It drives me nuts!
By IamCardinal on 10.16.19 4:57pm
A shout out is in order
As one of many who’ve been criticizing offensive line coach Kevin Carberry for some time, it is probably time to acknowledge the job he’s done this year. Three true freshman starters. Injuries abounding among the expected starters. And a line up that changes not only before every game, but during just about every game. No way Stanford defeats Washington without some outstanding coaching by him (and some outstanding leadership by Dalman). Not sure what Carberry will do if another lineman goes down. Perhaps move Fisk inside from his tight end spot. But with additional time to practice before tomorrow’s game, he should have whomever he puts out there ready to play.
Expect UCLA’s Thompson-Robinson to start. This will result in the Bruins putting some points on the board. But I agree with everyone above that Stanford will throw only enough to keep the defense honest. Otherwise, they will run Scarlett at least 30 times. If UCLA can’t stop the run game, it really doesn’t matter who starts at QB for the Cards.
By SU74 on 10.16.19 10:28pm
well said
Under the circumstances, the line has out-performed my expectations, and I was one of many critics last year. Bring on that crow for supper! Seems like a lot of things are going well, perhaps in part because there is less shifting between positions than we saw last year (center to guard, guard to tackle… etc.).
I thought we might see Wakely Lush (walk-on tight end that played O-line in spring/fall practice) as a backup now, but seems some of the D-linemen are considered backup to the O-line (Perry and Boles). I think Boles is still a walk-on? If he becomes a starter on the line I think a scholarship is in order.
By NowBoy on 10.17.19 4:13am
Is it talent or is it coaching?
Call me still sceptical about carberry. If the freshman after gaining experience go onto be the strength next season I can agree with the sentiment. I think this crop of freshman lineman we had has been talented (but also thrust in early). But true strength comes from stacking such classes. We will see next year with all definitive proof
By layman on 10.17.19 8:21am
Agree...but I think it's more nuanced.
I was certainly miffed at the lack of run-production last year. However, if we stop and take a more in-depth look at the line last year, I think the picture changes. It was my impression that last year, teams sold out to stop Bryce Love. I wonder if we had more tackles for a loss than in any year previous. That forced Shaw to change the offense (haters, keep insisting he can’t change) and throw the ball. In order to do this, the line had to protect Costello. One might argue, that despite the musical chairs on the OL, the line was good enough to help two underclass receivers turn pro and a Senior to turn pro. Costello’s number were so good he probably would have gotten drafted last year in the 5th or 6th round. The OL has to get some credit for that.
I haven’t checked, but I’m curious if Scarlett’s numbers, last year, were respectable. I often felt like Scarlett was more consistent because teams weren’t playing the run when he was in. In addition, Love seemed to have lost a step as a result of his earlier injury.
So yes, to the extent we criticized Carberry, we should praise him. But if I am being objective, I don’t think the OL was as bad as the run game. I think there were converging factors that made it perform worse than it should have. In any event, it’s good to see that Shaw might have made a good hire (we aren’t out of the woods yet).
By Blackjoy on 10.17.19 3:29pm
J West
I’m sure he’s capable… Our RBs, WRs, modified Oline and defense are all playing well! Would love to see us win out!
By Slot_Man22 on 10.17.19 5:56am
Test of leadership to avoid letdown
With another new QB starting his first game (luck and hogan stability seems long back), the offense will lean on the run game and might stutter in the redzone. So the defense that was feasting against the huskies needs to show up, provide some turnovers and keep the field position battle in our favor.
Hard to predict anything and most likely it all comes down to in game adjustments and play calling. Hopefully we extend the streak to 12, Go Card!
By layman on 10.17.19 8:38am
UCLA will stack the box
UCLA knows we will try to pound the rock and will stack the box. West may have been great in high school, but he has not had to perform in the passing game in a real college game. Shaw will run and run until UCLA stops the run. But, UCLA will stack the box, forcing West to pass. I say pass on first down, throwing short passes and keep UCLA out of the box. UCLA pass defense is really bad. I have seen a large number of inexperienced and often freshman college QBs step up this year and I hope West can join that prestigious group. West is no slouch and is a scholarship athlete, and I hope he makes the most of his possibly one and only chance to play a full game. I pray he does not get hurt.
By gaffman on 10.17.19 1:13pm
It's not necessary to pass
We can and will run out of a variety of formations. We have several capable RBs. However, West will need to successfully execute the screen pass…
By Slot_Man22 on 10.17.19 1:44pm