I was wrong about the Stanford vs Washington game, but so were most of you. We didn’t predict the offense to be as efficient as it was. Or believe the defense could keep Washington to only 13 points. This was not the same Stanford team that we saw play Oregon two weeks ago.
Who can we point towards for the team’s success? Cameron Scarlett certainly played a role with his 157 yards rushing. Davis Mills was efficient and smooth in his best performance of the year. The defense bent but never broke, and David Shaw outcoached Chris Peterson.
In my opinion, the primary reason for the win was Mills. He was accurate and mobile. He had chemistry with his receivers. More importantly, he represented Stanford in the post-Bryce Love world.
In an offense filled with new faces, Mills is one of them. Mills was in the same recruiting class as Connor Wedington, Osiris St. Brown, and Colby Parkinson. His other main targets, Michael Wilson and Simi Fehoko arrived to the Farm the next year. While KJ Costello had his fun with Bryce Love and company, Mills and this group must have their own fun during second team reps because their chemistry showed on Saturday night.
Furthermore, Shaw showed his trust in Mills and coached to his quarterback’s strengths. The Stanford coach has preached that his playbook doesn’t change if it’s Costello or Mills behind center. I’d argue that his playbook has adapted for the better with Mills starting. For example, Mills can throw on the run, so Shaw called plays where the third-year quarterback could roll out and make a throw out of the pocket. With a shortage of offensive linemen, keeping Mills protected was a major question mark ahead of the game, and certainly the ability to throw on the run helped keep him off the ground.
Shaw also knew that time of possession would win the game—it almost always decides the game for Stanford—and Mills’s short, crisp passes kept the clock from stopping. As a result, the defense stayed off the field and stayed rested. Mills and the Cardinal held the ball for almost 40 minutes, and in this case, their best defense was their offense.
Yes, Scarlett’s fantastic game played a role in keeping drives alive. But until the fourth quarter, Stanford had run the ball just 26 times becaue they were relying on Mills to extend drives. Through three quarters, Mills threw the ball 28 times for 284 yards. Shaw called passing plays, like screens and other quick passes, and Mills found his targets.
Now, with the upcoming bye week, David Shaw has a dilemma on his hands. Will he make Davis Mills the official QB1? Or will Costello still be the team’s leader?
KJ Costello represents the past. He’s the established, older quarterback, and he’s the team’s leader. Davis Mills represents the future. Shaw has always been hesitant to bench older quarterbacks, and if it was hard for him to bench Keller Chryst, imagine how hard it will be to bench Costello. I imagine he won’t do it.
Costello hasn’t been bad. He’s been hurt, and with the upcoming bye week, he should be ready for UCLA. If healthy, he deserves to finish the year as the starter.
The Pac-12 title appears to be out of hand anyway. At best, the team goes 8-4, and more likely, they finish 6-6. Whether it’s KJ Costello or Davis Mills starting, the team’s record likely won’t change. Some might say it’s better to start Mills so that he gets reps before next year, but with only six healthy linemen, it might be better to protect our future—he already got banged up versus Washington.
But what if KJ Costello doesn’t turn pro as we all expected before the season started?Then, Shaw might have a real dilemma on his hands.
Who would you take between Costello and Mills? Maybe Costello will make the decision for him and transfer. I hear Oklahoma is a pretty good spot for those…
Comments
I was thinking about this during the game as well
I think Mills honestly should get the starts as the team performed better with him at the helm. KJ almost turned pro this offseason anyway (and certainly would have if he was certain he’d be picked high), so if he played well he’d be gone at the end of the year. Mills has a chance to be a two-year solution. Thinking of all the players, not just KJ, I’d say Mills should be the starter. Stanford needs to be looking at maximizing the current group of young players.
By worldblee on 10.07.19 8:51am
Is it true that Mills can only play this year and next?
or did you mean something else when you talked about Mills being a two year solution?
By brandtjl1 on 10.07.19 8:57am
Mills has two years of eligibility remaining after this season
In all likelihood, he will stay only one more year. He is a redshirt sophomore, but an academic junior. So if we assume that he will have an excellent 2020 season, have a high NFL stock for the 2021 draft and graduate in June, he will not stay around for his 5th-year. What would be the motivation? Cam Scarlett stayed for his 5th year because he frankly never had a chance to be the lead running back after standing in the shadow of McCaffrey and Love for 4 years.
By Jeff Tarnungus on 10.07.19 9:47am
Mills for sure
Well at least we’re all on the same page now regarding Mills. That is awesome!
Tough break for KJ.. Stanford is out of playoff contention so playing at this point is somewhat meaningless and will only hurt his stock… He hasn’t been right since taking the blow to the head n game one. Imo KJ should sit, heal, train and prepare for the upcoming NFL combine. If he continues to play he risks further injury that would really derail any plans for the NFL #GoCardinals
By Slot_Man22 on 10.07.19 10:28am
I agree it
Should be Mills, but I don’t think that’s what Shaw will do. Mills is the more talented QB and I’d love to see him play as long as possible on the farm, but like stated above, Shaw has always had trouble benching upperclassmen for younger more talented players. KJ knows this first hand as Shaw was reluctant to play KJ when Keller was the starting QB and struggling. I think Shaw will give KJ every chance to win his job back, but if he struggles against UCLA, watch out, it might be Mills the rest of the way.
Also, Slot_Man, it’s Cardinal, not Cardinals, as in #GoCardinal. Newer fan I’m assuming? Welcome! Go Card!!
By IamCardinal on 10.07.19 11:06am
You only get so many seconds to make an edit lol
By Slot_Man22 on 10.07.19 11:13am
Watch this weeks practice and then make the decision.
If Costello is the equal or better of Mills during this week of practice, then I think you go back to Costello and give him one more chance to prove it during a game. However, I agree with the mindset posted above that the season is going to be mediocre and if KJ Costello isn’t 100% and better than he was last year, continuing to play will hurt his draft stock. Costello might be a lot better off if he doesn’t play all season under the umbrella of being injured and needing the year to recover, and then declares. As Slot says, KJ’s body of work is good enough he should get a combine invite and be a 5th or 6th round pick. But if he continues to play mediocre, for whatever reason, he’ll play himself out of the NFL altogether.
The challenge for Shaw, as it is for any head coach, is that you can get some divided loyalties either way. If Mills is clearly better in practice, then the players are going to notice that and might question Costello’s return. It’s no easy decision for a head coach, but part of the responsibility. Shaw will, and should, take the heat either way, there’s just no avoiding it, but it’s a good problem to have.
By Blackjoy on 10.07.19 11:32am
Nice Problem to Have
Most of knew Mills had crazy talent when we first saw him in limited time last year (and especially if you watched his HS tape). What I’m most impressed about is his decision making, and awareness in the pocket—reminds me of Hogan, in fact! I love KJ and the enthusiasm he brings to the table, but he can certainly be a little reckless at times. Given Shaw’s penchant for sticking with experience, however, I would be very surprised if KJ doesn’t return to being the full time starter at some point in the near future.
As for our team’s goals for the season, I don’t think you can completely count out a Pac-12 title. As talented as Herbert & Co. might be they still have road trips to Washington, USC and ASU, as well as a home date against a revamped OSU in the Civil War.I could very easily see them dropping one or two of those games, and if we get lucky maybe a third. While not the most likely scenario, I still think that there’s a lot left to play for, and I think that Coach Shaw has this team properly motivated.
By StanfordRico on 10.07.19 11:34am
Just to be clear
Oregon would have to lose at least three games for Stanford to have a shot at the north title. That means Oregon would have to go 4-3 down the stretch, while we would have to run the table (5-0). Not impossible, but I would not bet on it.
By Jeff Tarnungus on 10.07.19 12:07pm
Just playing for Respect
At this point. No national championship or pac12 title… Hopefully we secure a bowl game w/a ranked opponent and crush them in order to boost our 2020 preseason ranking..
By Slot_Man22 on 10.07.19 12:20pm
Most of who knew about Mills?
You can’t be referring to most who post in this forum! Most here were asking, " What happened to Cardinal football" and saying Mills was just a "backup" who needed more time to "grasp the playbook"
By Slot_Man22 on 10.07.19 12:13pm
However it's cool
If you wanna hop on the Hype Train! This is exciting! All for one and one for all!!
By Slot_Man22 on 10.07.19 12:16pm
Mills is the right choice
As others have voiced, I believe Mills is the right choice. KJ has had some phenomenal games with us but Mills looked like a significant step up in the Washington game. He has a better arm, is more accurate, and can move out of the pocket which can be a huge in helping us out of the offensive box I feel we find ourselves in way too often. Mills has looked more and more comfortable in each game he’s played so I would like him to continue to start so that next year we can make a stronger run for the pac-12 championship (playoff would be heavily pushing it). However, knowing Shaw, he is definitely going back to KJ. Don’t get me wrong, KJ is our leader and deserves to finish off his college career playing but I feel like for the future success of this team, Mills should be the one starting.
By robbedin2015 on 10.07.19 2:27pm
A softer ball
It seems to me that Mills throws a ball that is softer and easier to catch than Costello throws.
By brandtjl1 on 10.07.19 2:36pm
Yes...And...
He has a strong enough arm and a quick release to hit more receivers on slants over the middle.
By hoyaparanoia on 10.07.19 2:48pm
Mills > Costello
For all of the reasons cited above PLUS the fact that the comparison needs to made on this years performance with this set of receivers. KJ had a very good last year with a different group of guys. He has had trouble making it work with the new guys – for whatever reason.
However, Shaw will start Costello when he is healthy just as he will bench some of those Freshmen O-line guys if someone more senior who went out while higher up the depth chart is available. I hope Shaw gives all of those guys a very short leash, and is prepared to go with youth if they are the better player.
My concern, frankly, with Mills is injury risk. It is amazing he still has such mobilty after two severe leg injuries. Seeing him sitting out with ice on his knee last game concerns me greatly. Is he durable enough to last a season? I know that the past is not a predictor of the future but it is in the back of my mind when I watch him.
By hoyaparanoia on 10.07.19 2:47pm
I wonder if David and KJ will have a private talk about coming to terms with one of them getting benched.
By CreatureOfTheNight on 10.07.19 6:06pm
Mills is the smart choice
Mills is probably the most accurate passer since Andrew (who was phenomenal). He dropped those passes on Fehoko like a pro. And he can run to some extent. If we get back one or two O linemen, or at least stop getting busted up every week, I suggest we can win every game on our schedule but ND. And even that one is possible. They have no running attack, and it’s a hell of a long way from South Bend.
By jafco99 on 10.07.19 7:24pm
But To Respond To The Post
David Shaw DOES NOT have a QB controversy on his hands. But we do.
It is a true test of a Greek God……………..in terms of how he handles it.
By hoyaparanoia on 10.07.19 8:08pm
Just think...
One week ago it was doom and gloom lol
By Slot_Man22 on 10.07.19 9:19pm
I think generally
Shaw and his staff do not bring young talent along fast enough (unless forced by injury). There is certainly something to be said for loyalty to the seasoned veterans; but you have to go with the players that will secure the next W, and that sometimes requires difficult decisions. Right now, Mills appears to have a better chemistry with the offensive weapons at the team’s disposal, so starting him would just make sense.
That said, I remember back in 2014 how down we all were on Kevin Hogan, who was having a very mediocre season on a team that stood 5-5 after ten games. There were calls for a QB change (Burns or even true freshman Chryst, who was redshirting); there was talk of how Hogan had degraded since his break-out 2012 campaign. And even after three impressive wins to close the season at 8-5, there were rumors that he would forego his final season of eligibility or maybe even join the man who had originally recruited him, Jim Harbaugh, at Michigan. 2015 would be the inception of the Keller Chryst era, the highly-touted 4-star recruit from Paly high just across the road. Then 2015 happened, and I don’t think any of us regret Hogan’s decision to come back for his final season nor Shaw’s decision to stick with him.
Of course, the current situation is different; but I think we would all be just as happy if Costello made a Hogan-like recovery and led the team successfully through the next six games. He has done a lot for the team and deserves a fair shot to recover from his injuries and demonstrate what he is capable of. But Shaw also needs to act quickly if it is not working. In 2017, the team nearly blew its opportunity at the north title in Corvallis, with an ineffective Keller Chryst under center and a hyper-motivated KJ Costello sitting on the sidelines. We all know how the rest of that season played out, with late season victories over top ten UW and Notre Dame; and that only happened because Shaw finally made the switch to KJ.
By Jeff Tarnungus on 10.08.19 3:43am
Yep..I remember that
By Slot_Man22 on 10.08.19 7:31am
Soft corner for KJ
I know the writing might be on the wall for him. But we really need to respect KJ for everything he has done till this point – a QB battle brought about by luck 2 yrs back, taking over the reigns and putting up great performances down the stretch enroute to pac-12 ccg. I am astounded people don’t give him the credit he deserves for last year, without him cardinal miss a bowl game (mills wasn’t ready and was injured). That he returned this year despite the loss of every major and minor contributor on offense to give some stability is not lost on me.
The guy has been injured in spring and fall camp, shook off rust in the first game but got headbutted to another and injury, now the thumb. I really hope he recovers in time for 1 last hurrah.
Davis has been playing great these past 2 weeks but he needs to carry the team like KJ did down the stretch and show it against teams like notre dame. DCs will also notice his tendencies as more film builds. I am rooting for the young guy if and when he gets the nod to start going ahead.
But color me a softie for KJ
By layman on 10.09.19 1:53pm
The ugly side of sports
Sometimes there is no happy ending. I think we all (well almost all) wanted KJ to come back and get it done. But something has been wrong with him. It may be partly physical, but I think there is a confidence element as well. Anyone who has played competitive sports knows that confidence is the most crucial element in performance. When I look at the games KJ has played, he’s been off. His reads are off, his throws are off, etc. and I have to wonder if that has eroded some of his confidence and started a cascade failure in his performance.
By Blackjoy on 10.09.19 3:52pm
Agree
I am pulling for KJ to recover, but fairy tale endings in sports are actually a rarity. Chryst was never the same after his ACL injury. Many other examples abound.
By Jeff Tarnungus on 10.10.19 1:46am