Playing sports and putting sports into words are two things that I have loved since the moment I could pick up a ball—or read a newspaper. Visualizing the pinnacle of athletic achievement, whether you achieved it—or even just witnessed it—is a feeling unparalleled.
I’ve been a lifelong Stanford fan—and I bring to Stanford football the same fiery passion of an SEC fan—wait, scratch that. The SEC brings the same fiery passion that I bring to Stanford football!
In elementary school, I watched Tyrone Willingham take Stanford to its first outright Pac-10 title in 29 years. In high school, I endured the mockery of all my high school friends while I rooted for a laughingstock of a Stanford team. And, yes, I enjoyed Stanford’s ascension into the football elite over the past decade.
But as we enter 2019—perhaps Stanford’s most important season in recent memory—which Stanford will we see?
First, S&P and FPI can kiss my big, red “S”! They’re projecting six wins? SIX WINS?! Stanford clearing six wins is something I’d bet The Farm on (pun intended)! Stanford’s never had fewer than eight wins since 2008—and that team was still rebuilding under Harbaugh. Perhaps I live in a fairy tale dreaming of a Rose Bowl or a National Championship—but to think Stanford is a .500 team is pure stupidity.
I’ll concede that Stanford has the toughest schedule in the country. But even in the worst-case scenario, Stanford loses only five games—and I only say that Stanford might lose five to appease any Oregon, USC, Notre Dame, and Washington fans out there who might be reading this. Even if Stanford loses to all four of those schools—plus a random fifth loss somewhere—that’s still a 7-5 year in the ultimate doomsday scenario.
It’s not just the statistical models disrespecting Stanford, though—Stanford has the most disrespected QB in all of college football. True, KJ Costello might not be the type of player Coach David Shaw would normally choose, but KJ Costello came along at the just the right time—and now Shaw is happily riding the KJ train. But the total lack of love for Costello in the media is inexplicable, especially with the media going gaga over Oregon’s Justin Herbert. Personally, I’d take Costello over Herbert in a heartbeat—and even ESPN begrudgingly conceded that Costello’s numbers last year were better than Herbert’s! Costello is an NFL talent; not only will he win Stanford those 6 games—but he has the potential to win 10 or more!
“But, nerdnation23, won’t defenses put eight in the box because Stanford no longer has Bryce Love?” Well, Stanford didn’t have the Bryce Love last year either! Last year, there was a Bryce Love, but the injured Bryce Love of 2018 was not the one we saw in 2017 who won Stanford yet another Heisman runner up. While 2017 Bryce Love may not be replaceable, 2018 Bryce Love has a number of suitable replacements. The first is Cameron Scarlett. Scarlett may not be Bryce Love—or Toby Gerhart—or Christian McCaffrey—or, well, you get the picture—but Scarlett was a 4-star recruit out of high school and there was nobody ranked higher than him out of the state of Oregon. He is a bruiser in the mold of a Stanford RB. He’s also a 5th-year guy who Shaw loves. In addition, Stanford also has incoming freshman Austin Jones who was ranked in the very elite of high school running backs. Whether Jones plays as a true freshman is yet to be seen. But last year Clemson rode a true freshman quarterback all the way to the national title. Age isn’t always the determinant of college football success.
Whoever is trusted with running the ball, though, this year’s line needs improvement. With Stanford losing the majority of last year’s line, though, it’s a good opportunity to push the reset button and start anew. And there’s reason for optimism with All-American Walker Little returning, who has the potential to become a David DeCastro-caliber lineman. Stanford bringing back a healthy Foster Sarrell might mean another All-American in the trenches. Add in Drew Dalman returning at center, and three-fifths of the line is teeming with veteran talent—add in a couple surprise young talents and this might just be the best Stanford offensive line in quite sometime.
On the defensive side of the ball, Stanford will not give up more than 35 points all year and I predict at least one shutout. There isn’t a single weak link remaining from the previous seasons—and Stanford has Paulson Adebo….Paulson Adebo…..PAULSON ADEBO!!! The last time Stanford had a lockdown cornerback as a national focal point was when I made a create-a-character in NCAA 2012.
As for special teams, Stanford lost punter Jake Bailey, which might be Stanford’s worst loss of anyone—and that isn’t an overstatement. Knowing you had a punter who had all-world capabilities meant Stanford could count on winning the field position game. Thankfully, Stanford signed Ryan Sanborn to the 2019 class who, while young, is still a top talent at punter. For placekicking, Stanford has one of the greatest in Jet Toner.
To reiterate: this is Stanford’s most important season in recent memory. That’s because this year will judge the next five years—maybe more. If Stanford is somehow as bad as the predictions say, Stanford will no longer be among the elite football schools; instead, it will hover around eight wins a season, maybe sneaking a conference title once every seven years or so. If, on the other hand, Stanford can overcome its grueling schedule and win 10+ games, Shaw will cement himself as the premiere coach of the Pac-12, proving that it doesn’t matter if it’s Luck, Hogan, Costello, or QB 2020—no matter the talent, Stanford will always be a reloading school—never a rebuilding one.
Comments
Defense...is the question.
In case you’ve been asleep for the last decade, Stanford only got to national prominence when the Defense was finishing in the top 10 nationally. Last year, had our defense been one touchdown better, we beat UW and WSU. That makes us 11-2. Had we not been down 21 points to ND at half and 17 to Utah at half time, who knows what might have happened.
Great defense allows Shaw to run the ball more.
The weakest part of our Defense is probably going to be our Safeties. Last year, they killed us. Safeties are responsible for stopping big running plays and passing plays and we’ve historically had some good ones. Last year we were average, at best.
By Blackjoy on 08.01.19 10:31am
I'm not convinced on the DL (or the OL for that matter) yet, either
But regardless of the results, the tough schedule should provide a lot of learning that will pay off in future seasons (even if KJ isn’t the QB after this upcoming season as he wants to go pro).
By worldblee on 08.01.19 11:59am
Offense that sustained ball control!
In the Harbaugh-Shaw era, until 2016, Stanford’s offenses could move the ball, win time of possession, on the way to a score. That time of possession meant rest for the defense and kept high-scoring offenses on the sidelines. A fresh defense was more able to play it bend-don’t-break style and have fresh enough legs for when it was time to party in the backfield. In several seasons prior to 2017, Stanford national top-20 time of possession rankings, twice #1. Ball control let the defense look better; that’s what ToP generally suggests.
A lengthy slump in TWU performance always hampered that part of the Cardinal offense. The 2014 8-5 season was the first significant slump. Fortunately, a come-to-whozit soul-searching meeting after that season reached 5-5 had worked, the TWU forsook its toreador choreography and Stanford was 3-0 after that.
The 2017 3rd game, at San Diego State, was a red-flag game. Stanford lost 17-20, lost time of possession 18:46 to 41:14, and except for 2 Bryce Love long lightning TD strikes, it was generally 3-and-out. SDS ran 78 offensive plays, Stanford had 43. The offense couldn’t rest the defense, who had all it could handle with Rashaad Penny, who had 32 carries to net 175 yds. Love had only 13 carries for 184 yds. SDS had a stout defense but the TWU was tripping on its tutus.
Here’s charting of Stanford’s NCAA ToP rankings since 2008:
2008, #62
2009, #11
2010, #1
2011, #5
2012, #24
2013, #29
2014, #18
2015, #1
2016, #17
2017, #62
2018, #60
Stanford’s "new" passing offense last year is the exception because a successful passing game is faster than a ball-control ground game that typified the previous run-first seasons, so that context change is meaningful to comparing 2018 with the earlier seasons. Nevertheless, as TWU goes, so goes the Cardinal offense, if it goes.
By Candid One on 08.03.19 4:10am
Yes............Completely
If Shaw is going to play "Stanford football", we need to win TOP. Costello and JJ bailed us out last year. Love bailed us out the year before with his long distance runs. This resulted in points scored ("bailing out the offense"), but not much time elapsed, and kept the defense on the field way too much. We play games far too close to let the other team’s offense have too many possessions.
The numbers above speak for themselves. Unless there is a major change this year, we are looking at a tough season given our schedule.
Not sure that Stanford’s passing offense last year was "new", it just was necessary to make up for all of the other deficiencies. I assume we open up looking to run the ball, control TOP, play field position and see what happens. If it doesn’t work, we could easily lose to Northwestern.
I am actually very curious to see how Shaw game plans the first game knowing all of this.
By hoyaparanoia on 08.04.19 1:14pm
Six Wins Is Where I Would Put The Cardinal
Regrettably. I have posted earlier on why. Hope for more, but anticipate a .500 season. Of course if Stanford were an SEC team, add three wins and take away three losses – 9 – 3!! Strength of schedule only matters if you win (mostly).
Costello does provide a bit of upside here, if the game planning permits it.
Love the Cardinal either way………….and will be there cheering!
By hoyaparanoia on 08.01.19 12:26pm
I don't like to predict the schedule...
But, I would expect 9 wins.
1. Our running game should be better. If Little and Sarell can stay healthy, we should get vastly improved blocking. Even more influential is the fact that Love is gone and Costello lead the league in passing (or maybe 2nd to Minshew). This has two huge benefits. First, teams aren’t going to be mentally focused on Scarlett et al. like they were on Love. Second, we beat teams passing last year and that means opposing Defensive Coordinators are going to dial up more zone and deep safeties.
I think we should see a big improvement in rushing this year, or at least a much higher level of consistency, even though the beta might be reduced. And IMO, less home runs in the run game might actually improve the Defensive stats as we’ll take longer drives and reduce the time the Defense is on the field.
2. We’ve reloaded at WR. Granted, there is no one who can replace Arcega, but we have a TON of receiver talent and 6’7" Parkinson is back. So if we can find average 4 yards a carry, that will improve the passing game and perhaps keep it as good as it was last year.
3. We were only trashed in 2 games last year. ND and Utah were the only schools that embarrassed us (I’m going to conveniently ignore Oregon because we won.) We played UW on the road with their Senior QB and barely lost that game. We played WSU and Minshew had one of the best games of his life. I don’t think WSU or UW will have a better QB. UW also lost a ton of defensive talent. So maybe this year we lose to ND and UCF. I figure we’ll probably lose at least one or two more, just because. So that puts us at in the 9-3/8-4 range.
4. We get some of the big boys at home. Playing UW and Oregon at home, will improve our odds. WSU, is not that hard a place to play unless it’s November. I think the UCF game will be a loss because we SUCK as a team when we go the East coast and if this is a morning or noon game, we’re totally screwed.
Having said all that, predicting only 6 wins is not so outrageous if we just look at the schedule. There’s every reason to fear every single team on that schedule. Oregon State came back from 21 points in the 4th quarter AT Colorado last year to win the game in OT. Anyone on that schedule can beat us. Arizona and Cal are particularly dangerous.
Now…if our Defense sucks, all bets are off. We might get 7-8 wins without a good running game, but without a Defense we won’t be able to run the ball consistently and Shaw should get Coach of the Year if he goes 8-4 in conference.
By Blackjoy on 08.01.19 3:46pm
meant 8-4 for the year...not in conference.
By Blackjoy on 08.01.19 5:32pm
Now is the time for realistic and unrealistic expectations
Until that first loss, however, I’m going as usual with unrealistic expectations: winning the Pac 12. Why? Let me count the ways:
1. A better QB than last year. Costello knows the offense, has a terrific arm, and has had a year to improve his weaknesses (taking too long, staring down one receiver, refusal to run).
2. Better awareness of each RB’s limitations. Love’s junior season was special and, because of that, Shaw tried too hard to duplicate it. An acceptance of Scarlett, Speights, and Maddox’s strengths and weaknesses should translate into far fewer lost yard runs.
3. More effective fullback play. Symonds and Heimuli are monsters.
4. Virtually every lineman is heavier than last year and I’m betting it’s more muscle. The new pictures suggest it is not body fat.
5. The receiving corps is loaded. Sure, JJ was a terror in the end zone. But Parkinson is 6’7", Fehiko 6’4", and Stewart 6’4." Coaching them to box out will not be a problem. Add to that St. Brown’s speed, Weddington’s ability to run after catch, and more playing time for Wilson and this corps will be very hard to cover.
6. The offensive line will finally return to being a team strength. If Powell, Hamilton, and Bragg can pull effectively, this line should be excellent.
7. Competition will make the defensive front seven a much tighter, more effective unit. Booker and Swann are gonna be pressed by loads of defensive ends looking for playing time. Ryan Johnson’s new picture certainly suggests more serious effort. Williams is now 293 but Wade-Perry is 316. Again, if that reflects added muscle, the defensive tackle position is solid. Toohill will start on one outside LB, but Reid, Fox, and Andres Fox will try mightily for the other slot. And Robinson, Miezan, Pryts, and Magun-Farrar promise a spirited competition at inside LB.
8. Excellent corners/nickelback will ease some of the pressure off the safeties. Antoine was too passive, too late, and generally ineffective last year. Expect him to be more aggressive. Head is now up to 201 pounds. He already has blazing speed and height. Sure he’s green, but he has had a few years now with Akina as his coach.
9. Stanford is back to 3 tight ends. Parkinson is the alpha dog, but both Harrington and Fisk have bulked up (though Fisk looks like it’s mostly added hair).
10. The kicking game will still be very, very good. You can’t replace Bailey. Lots of reasons the world champions drafted him. But both Gracey and Sunburn are 6’3," with excellent resumes (1st team all state Georgia two years running, and the 3rd best punter in the US). And Jet Toner will again be the best field goal kicker in the Pac 12.
So there you have it. My 10 reasons to expect this year’s team to lose no more than 2 conference games, which should be enough to win the Pac 12.
By SU74 on 08.01.19 3:43pm
I like that brand of optimism.
I also like your list of 10 reasons as they are reasonably optimistic. I think you’ve nailed it with #2. Shaw seemed to expect Love to succeed on principle alone. I think the O-line may have also been guilty of that. I recall that one of Love’s TD runs against Oregon, he beat the pulling guard through the hole. That’s ridiculous and suggested a total lack of urgency on the O-line. Hopefully that will change this year.
By Blackjoy on 08.01.19 3:52pm
The Coaches Preseason Poll Just Released Has Stanford At #22
Which means nothing at this point other than the fact that a bunch of coaches, as a group, certainly expect Stanford to win more than six games!
Our schedule has us playing five teams ranked ahead of us….plus Northwestern at #25.
I concur with Blackjoy that it comes down, as always, to being able to run ball and control the clock – plus a strong and reliable defense. And these two factors are definitely related. Our defense was on the field way too much last year. We are breaking in a lot of players, which provides both upside and some risk, and the season starts with three real games so not much time to learn on the job.
Will be interesting to watch!
By hoyaparanoia on 08.01.19 11:29pm
Honest Football
It’s embarrassing to the college football world that Stanford, the best nerd football school in the country, has the toughest schedule. Unlike Alabama, we don’t play the likes of New Mexico State and Western Carolina. And which plays only 8 league games. Unlike Clemson, we don’t play the likes of Charlotte and Wofford. Unlike Notre Dame, we don’t play the likes of New Mexico and Bowling Green. We view playing a tough schedule as honest, the real thing. Why play a patsy schedule to pad the number of wins? Only those who don’t love the game will do that. We also play UWash, Oregon, USC, WashState, and (sometimes) Utah.
Look at the Rosters for Alabama and Clemson to see the reality of college football today – they don’t even bother to list the players’ majors! Why bother? The majors are an embarrassment! Stanford lists the majors: here’s a rundown: 10 political science, 8 science, tech and society, 5 engineering, 3 psychology, 4 mgmt of science and tech, 1 human biology (pre-med), 3 communication. (Lots of the players are "undeclared.") Then we graduate 100% of our players and many of them go on to become professionals. Then we win the Director’s Cup 25 years in a row, pile on 7 championships in one season, etc. Do the football pundits talk about any of this? Of course not. No depth. No real analysis. No perspective. No appreciation for the fearlessness of Stanford and its multi-dimensional talent. If we do go on to get into the playoffs or win a national championship, it’ll be done with honesty and against all the odds given the corrupt, rigged, and manipulated sport that college football has become. I say this as someone who’s been rooting for Stanford since I was born; my dad was in the Vow Boy’s class at Stanford and roommate of Bob Reynolds (180 minutes of Rose Bowl football). I say, keep it tough and honest and still win.
By Ludlam on 08.03.19 7:02am
Always Proud of The Cardinal
I take my kids to the games and point out that Andrew Luck and Toby Gerhart were not only great players, BUT HIGH SCHOOL VALEDICTORIANS. And I ask them what their high school valedictorian is like. Rooting for the good guys is easy at Stanford, whatever the outcome of the games. Stories about Richard Sherman and Doug Baldwin also come to mind (Salutatorians).
But your point on schedules is spot on. An SEC team can play .500 ball in their conference and then schedule and win four games out of conference…..resulting in an 8 – 4 record and a likely top 20 ranking because "they play in the SEC". The other HUGE factor about SEC cupcake games is that they are effectively off weeks for players with injuries, allowing the team to stay fresh for the "big games". Garbage. And the SEC is not strong top to bottom, at all.
No, the pundits don’t really get it. At all. I would defend Notre Dame a bit, however. Classy school, great academics and strong sports standards. Their coach will actually sit players who are not "with the program". While they have a few "cupcakes", as Stanford has had in recent years (not this year), they also reach out to schedule the likes of Georgia, Michigan, USC and Stanford ……as well as their foes in the ACC. I love the Stanford/Notre Dame games because of this. Full disclosure….my son will be a Sophomore at ND this year and I have been watching all of their games as well as the Stanford games. More similarities than differences. Catholic Stanford in many respects.
As you say, whether Stanford wins or loses, it does it the right way. David Shaw is emblematic of this approach.
Go Cardinal!
By hoyaparanoia on 08.04.19 1:34pm