For the first time since 2009, the Stanford Cardinal are facing the prospect of entering a season without a clear workhorse running back, a starter to carry the load and cruise to 1,000 yards.
The three-down workhorse is a luxury they have leaned on for the better part of a decade.
From 2010-2012, Stepfan Taylor topped 1,100 yards annually. In 2013, Tyler Gaffney broke out to the tune of 1,709 yards.
Following a dicy 2014 season (the Cardinal still topped 1,000 rushing yards in their only questionable season on this run) Christian McCaffrey scorched the earth in 2015. The young runner broke Barry Sanders’ all-purpose yardage record, coming just short of the Heisman. McCaffrey returned in 2016 to post over 1,900 yards from scrimmage. He was followed by another Heisman runner up; Bryce Love and his 2,000 plus yard season in 2017.
Most teams are lucky to have back to back great running backs, but Stanford ran through seven years of exceptional running backs largely uninterrupted. Now, the Cardinal are embarking into uncharted waters.
The cast of characters in the backfield has promise, but nowhere near the elite production, the program has come to call standard.
The backs equipped to demand snaps are Cameron Scarlett, Trevor Speights, Dorian Maddox and Nathaniel Peat.
Cameron Scarlett is the top back on the roster by default, with a modest 300 rushing yards over the past two seasons balanced by 17 total touchdowns.
Speights was electric in high school; a bowling ball that could get vertical in a hurry possessed sound field vision and could fight through arm tackles. He has since fallen flat on the college field, offering little in the way of hope as the ‘next back up.’
Maddox may be the most intriguing; a smaller, almost Giovani Bernard type back. He is the shifty, twitchy runner that could potentially break a defense as a change-of-pace tailback. But at his best, Maddox touches the ball 10 to 15 times in a game, not 25 to 30.
Even an entertaining, young prospect like Nathaniel Peat cannot stabilize the backfield on his merits alone.
More discomforting still is where the rest of the offense finds themselves. The tug felt last season for a change in offensive identity has now turned into a desperately rushed facelift.
Key receivers J.J. Arcega-Whiteside, Trenton Irwin and Kaden Smith, are all gone. In their place; a group of unproven players and Osiris St. Brown, who vastly underperformed to pre-2018 expectations. The lone proven asset on the team is tight end Colby Parkinson, who gathered seven touchdowns and averaged 16.7 yards per reception last season.
The bottom line: Stanford’s turbulence at the running back position comes at an inconvenient time for a Cardinal offense changing over crucial skill position players seemingly everywhere. The most obvious route for success in such a climate will require three key factors, all stemming from the running back position.
First: The phrase “running back by committee” applies to no one more than it does the Cardinal. They will necessitate the embodiment of the term this season, with as many as four running backs potentially seeing six to 12 touches every outing.
Second: K.J. Costello will need plenty of help from the backfield outside of running the ball. Each tailback will not only need to run the ball but play mistake-free blocking and pick up plenty of slack in the passing game. As it stands right now, it is naive to trust this receiving core to carry their weight, which means receptions from the backfield will be crucial.
Third: The red zone offense has to be a different beast than any other version of Stanford’s machine. Spreading out an opponent and playing fast-paced, pass-happy football is the transition that started back in 2018 for the Cardinal offense. But in the red zone, the Cardinal need massive doses of I-formation, ground and pound football. Passes should find their way to big-bodied tight ends bullying defensive backs in the end zone. Scarlett and Parkinson should be featured every time the Cardinal pass the opponent’s 20.
Comments
Way too pessimistic
I have been scouring the internet for info on Stanford 2019. Nothing of course on CBS, ESPN or any other biggie; but, there is lots to be had by searching for Stanford Football 2019.
The "pundits" are ranking S in the 20-30 category based on history. They all know about S’s injury woes in 2018, and how many positions were vacated by graduation, etc. Other than that they know nothing, so inertia causes them to put S in the Top 30.
David Shaw has been uncharacteristically upbeat in his comments. At the PAC 12 media days, he commented that S could be one of the top passing attacks in the nation. Costello is mooted as a "dark-horse Heisman candidate"; the receiving corps has a ton of talent and speed. It comes down to the line. LT is a first team PAC, and preseason 1st team All-America. RT was considered, just before recruiting ended in 2015(?), the "best football player in the nation." He’s hardly played due to injury, but apparently now is ready to go. Between those two anchors are some talented and experienced players. The line should be good, and could be excellent.
It’s the D that has me excited. Adebo is also an All America pick. His teammates are really high on Eboh at the other corner. The safeties appear adequate to good. The linebacking corps is loaded with experience/talent/speed. The D line has 6 or 7 guys who are at least good, maybe a lot better. We haven’t had that kind of talented depth often.
We are being projected to go to the Las Vegas Bowl (PAC 12 5th place?) by Jerry Palm. I’m going to lay my projection out here: floor = Alamo Bowl. Expected = Rose Bowl. 2 standard deviations up = #3 in CFP seeding. Good luck to Stanford and our ardent and knowledgeable fans.
By jafco99 on 08.21.19 6:25pm
This just in:
SWANN IS TOP RANKED DEFENSIVE PLAYER IN THE NATION
Check it out on today’s (8/21) ESPN Football Home page. A video and various stats; just goes in support of my enthusiasm for the D.
By jafco99 on 08.21.19 6:42pm
Check it out: http://espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/24/stanford-cardinal
By SacCardFan on 08.21.19 6:55pm
The receiving corps deserves a whole lot more respect
Not sure where the writer is coming from to say "it is naive to trust this receiving core to carry their weight." This year’s set of receivers includes Michael Wilson (good enough to get substantial playing time last year as a freshman), a healthy Connor Wedington (excellent in runs after catches), speedy Osiris St. Brown (blaming him for underperforming without mentioning injuries is simply wrong), and Simi Fehoko (6’4", 226 lbs, with speed). Waiting in the wings is Elijah Higgins, one of the best high school receivers in the country last year. If you add in Colby Parkinson as a tight end who can catch, you have probably the most talented overall receiving corps in a long time.
What this means for the running backs is that none of them will be facing 8 defenders in the box. And that insures that a healthy offensive line will be able to open holes that weren’t there last year. [Odd for an article on running backs not to mention the offensive line.] Although it is true that only one back (freshman Nathanial Peat) has blazing speed, Cameron Scarlett is 6’1", 216 pounds, certainly big enough to block and extend 2 or 3 yard runs into 4 and 5 yards. Having watched Taylor and Gaffney, I don’t see anything that either one brought to the table that Scarlett can’t also bring. If he receives the help of a healthy offensive line as his two predecessors did, he’ll easily surpass 1,000 yards.
By SU74 on 08.22.19 9:06am
Austin Jones
.. no mention??
By SD2DS on 08.22.19 6:48pm
It Is Not About The Running Backs......
…..It is ALL ABOUT the offensive line. Agree 100% with SU74 that Scarlett can deliver on par (more or less) with a Gaffney or a Taylor if the OL performs. Heck, even with Bryce Love last year (and to some extent the year before, if one takes out the several huge gains each game), we did not have a ground and pound ball control offense. This was not on the running back. Also, I have been positively surprised by Scarlett’s performance running back kick-offs. He has been more than effective in a role that I did not think he was well suited for.
I expect Shaw will lean HEAVILY on Scarlett as the almost every down back, with Maddox as a third down back in passing situations given his pass blocking and relative speed burst. And it will work or not work. Look for a handoff up the middle to open up the season. Followed by a handoff up the middle. I have serious concerns about this season, and most of it rests with the offensive line performance. Granted, this is based on our poor OL performance really the past two years and our inability to execute a ball control offense. On paper, we should be ok this year. But we have seen years before where our great "on paper" OL took many many games to get to where they needed to get or suffered injury setbacks.
We NEED to integrate running backs into the passing game. Which suggests that Weddington might also see some time at RB.
We will miss JJ’s unique talents. But if we can establish a running game, hopefully we can run in the red zone for TDs and set up other receivers with our run game. But honestly, I am beyond the point where I can just assume that Stanford will be dominant on the ground after several years of serious deterioration in this regard despite Shaw’s avowed preference for this type of offense. Wait and see. Hopeful but concerned.
By hoyaparanoia on 08.23.19 4:47am
You know us well, hoyaparanoia
That notion is like a warm blanket of yesteryear. If only I could wrap myself up in that with confidence.
By Blackjoy on 08.23.19 12:06pm
That reminds me...
One of the most gut-wrenching loses under Harbaugh was to Oregon State. The very first play from scrimmage, we started off with a play-action (to Taylor or was it Toby?) and Owusu(?) was wide open down the field. Luck threw it to him and he promptly dropped it. I told my friend, right there, right then we were going to lose that game.
If only we had started the game with two hand-offs up the middle.
By Blackjoy on 08.23.19 12:09pm
Owusu Dropped A Lot Of Passes
But I clearly remember that one. Truly crushing. Wonder if that dropped pass haunted him for a while, impacting other muffed receptions.
The question is…..did Harbaugh follow on second and third downs with hand offs up the middle??!! Don’t really remember.
By hoyaparanoia on 08.23.19 2:42pm
Lots of misperceptions...
Returning receivers, including tight ends, aren’t chopped liver. Incoming talent is looking like plug-and-play if they can block. Frosh Higgins and Bowman, both 4-star, look to be replacements for Arcega-Whiteside and Irwin.
As for RBs, it was unlikely, because Bryce Love played hurt, that other backs could get many snaps, especially behind the toreador choreography of the TWU. People, including sports wonks, forget that Cam Scarlett led the PAC-12 in kickoff returns, was #2 nationally, in 2017. He’s also done most of the heavy goal line TD work, to save Love’s wear and tear, in 2017 and 2018. Scarlett is a clone of Tyler Gaffney who played behind better editions of the TWU. (Too often, Love got hit as soon as Costello gave him the ball.) Maddox and Speights are decent backups. Soph Woods and frosh Austin Jones will need to be able block if they want playing time, especially in picking up blitzes on Costello.
But, none of that matters if the TWU doesn’t do its job.
By Candid One on 08.25.19 3:51pm
Agree Completely......As Would Most Who Posted Above
1. We have lots of talent at receiver. Whether that talent translates into performances to replace players drafted or undrafted sticking in the NFL remains to be seen. Even through rose colored glasses, it will take some time for such new talent to develop. They haven’t seen much touches to date (perhaps Parkinson and Weddington aside).
2. I made the same point about Scarett’s kick return performances in a post on another article on this blog. He is more than able to deliver 1000 plus yards if……
3. The TWU does its job.
The TWU, unfortunately, has not done its job for two years. The TWU under Shaw also tends to develop slowly as the year progresses…….with some rough early season performances.
We face a tough early season schedule. Hence my concerns. I am just not able to assume anything about the OL no matter how many recruiting stars are attached to the talent. We will know more after Saturday.
By hoyaparanoia on 08.26.19 7:34am