Both the Stanford Cardinal and Northwestern Wildcats are changing, recharging after losing significant talent, and in this battle of soul searchers, Stanford has the edge.
The Wildcats lost four-year quarterback Clayton Thorson to the Philadelphia Eagles after contending for the Big Ten title last season, which has taken a massive bite out of the Northwestern offense. They averaged 239.4 passing yards per game with Thorson at the helm, carrying a running game that only offered 114.9 yards and 3.1 yards per attempt. Now, the Wildcats have yet to find a quarterback, putting A.J. Green and Hunter Johnson as QB1 the week of the game.
To compound the issue, the Wildcats lost three offensive linemen in the offseason, giving their shaky running game a new front that has yet to gel.
Even more problematic: The defense will not be able to compensate for any lag from the offense.
Back in 2015, the Wildcats held a prolific Stanford offense to 6 points. But back in 2015, Northwestern’s defense ranked 8th in yards allowed and 7th in points per game allowed.
Last year, the defense was 40th in points allowed and 83rd in yards allowed.
Northwestern has lost their defense over the past three years, while the rushing attack has dovetailed in the same span from 43rd to 110th. Northwestern stabilized a deteriorating defense and inconsistent running attack with quarterback play. Now, they don’t have a quarterback.
The Cardinal too, have gone through change over time. The Stanford defense has definitely lost some of its luster, ranking 75th las year in yards let up, and 41st in points allowed.
As for the Cardinal offense, its change is written about at near nausea levels. But the edge is in California, which is why Stanford will win this game.
Stanford has rebounded, thanks to a few key factors. Their pass rush gave consistent pressure, amassing 36 sacks last season (23rd in the country) while the defense reliably bent more than it broke. On offense, quarterback K.J. Costello is built to handle the new, pass-heavy scheme.
And Stanford the bare bones of the news team is still in place for 2019. The defense returns key defenders (Adebo Paulson, Malik Antoine, Jordan Fox and Casey Toohill to name a few) to pair with the rise of young bucks like Kendall Williamson and Thomas Booker. A healthy mix of the old and the new will give the squad added punch (Curtis Robinson, if there was ever a time to break out finally, this is the year buddy). The Cardinal passing game has leapt from 115th in attempts back in 2016 to 47 last year, completing 63% of those throws.
In a battle of rebuilds, Stanford is already headed towards a new one while Northwestern is trying to recover.
Comments
I Am A Stanford Fan...........
But I think you are looking at this a bit through rose colored glasses. The polls (for what they are worth) have Stanford only a few slots ahead of Northwestern. Your stats above show defenses from last year that are pretty comparable, and running attacks from last year that are pretty comparable. Thorson was a very experienced QB, but not a great passer. Hunter Johnson (assuming he is starting) was the #1 or #2 ranked pocket QB coming out of high school (about the same as Davis Mills). A 5 star QB ranked as the 21st best player in the country. He had good stats in limited playing time at Clemson. Clemson. The National Champions. He COULD be a huge upgrade at QB for the Wildcats. Northwestern has a strong running back who only came on later in the year (Bowser). And Northwestern is very well coached.
I think Stanford has an edge at QB and this will be a home game (with no students). The spread is 6.5 in favor of Stanford. Which feels about right. But given a history of slow starts, conservative game plans, and time to break in new personnel, Stanford could struggle a bit. Northwestern will remember that they beat Stanford last time. Should be interesting. You note Stanford’s new "pass heavy scheme". Not at all sure what offensive scheme we will see, but certainly we can pass if we fail to run effectively.
Looking forward to seeing the Cardinal! Hope they crush Northwestern with a dominant ball control and punishing rushing attack, supplemented by an elegant passing attack. But lots of questions out there………..
Go Cardinal!
By hoyaparanoia on 08.30.19 8:59am
Don't expect 62-0
Stanford fans no doubt noticed that UCF won it first game 62-0. Yes, it was against Florida A & M and, yes, the A & M defensive backs were repeatedly torched. But it does give you some pause going into this loaded season.
I agree a lot with what the writer says about Stanford, but very little about what he says regarding Northwestern. It is a well coached football team with an excellent defense. It will benefit from a relatively empty stadium, even if it is a bit off set by this being an early (for them) away game. And if Stanford is the better team (which overall, it looks like it is), don’t expect David Shaw to run up the score like UCF. If Stanford gets ahead by more than two touchdowns, I imagine he’ll substitute freely as that will benefit the team in the long run.
Glad to see the season is finally here and all the talk about how many players Stanford lost from last year will be out the window. Time to focus on the players they have, all of whom look to be ready.
By SU74 on 08.30.19 9:24am
Wildcat fan here...we expect more from a Stanford blog!
Every team’s fans are biased, especially heading in to week one, but this post isn’t even close to being on point for Northwestern. This post was created by simply looking at returning starters and extrapolating stats from last year. The running game for NU in 2018 was indeed weak as an average, but that was in large part b/c our seemingly surefire future NFL level back, Jeremy Larkin retired for medical reasons in week three of the season. Isaiah Bowser went from redshirt to eventual starter and during his 8 starts was among the nation’s most productive backs during that time and the best freshman RB during that span. As your astute commenter pointed out, we have a potential upgrade at QB with the #1 rated QB in the class of 2017, a 5-star transfer from Clemson. And yes, we have new faces on the OL – no more than Stanford – but have significantly upgraded the coaching there. Your assessment is a bit too based on returning starters. It’d be akin to NU fans blasting Stanford’s offense for losing 80%+ of its WR productivity. Instead, we look and see you have big time talent stepping in with significant size advantages. However, the part that really got me to write was the assessment of our D. We’ve won 8 straight road games and gone 15-1 in our last 16 B1G games, which is tied with Alabama, Clemson and Oklahoma during that span. Yes, we lost an embarassing NC disaster to Akron last year which is likely the only thing anchoring us from being higher ranked than Stanford. Any one who follows the B1G knows this defense is as good as it’s been and has steadily improved each year since we beat Stanford in 2015 in the opener. K.J. is an enormous test, but several of the "non-starters" returning are really starters who were injured (ex – Greg Newsome II, Trae Williams). With the exception of DT Trevor Kent, every player on D has started at least 4 games. B1G insiders are looking at this D as potentially the second best in the entire conference behind MSU. Not saying we will be, but we are loaded at DE and have likely the best LB unit and safety unit in the entire conference. It’s tough to take preview posts like this seriously when it’s clear the homework wasn’t done aside from a stat sheet. Big fans of the program. We respect and admire what David Shaw has done and feel a kindred spirit with a program that seemingly does it the right way. Best of luck.
By LakeThePosts95 on 08.30.19 2:57pm
Will be a tough game for Stanford
Definitely not what this article predicts. NU is transitioning and so are we. They kicked our great 2015 team in the teeth and grinned while doing it, which no-one predicted. They will be up for this game. I think there is a great chance Stanford gets upset by them again.
By Brendan Ross on 08.30.19 9:55pm
Frankly, we do not really know what to expect
Hard to gauge how good NU is; and, in some respects, it is even tougher to know where Stanford is at this stage. If Shaw is conservative, insists on running into a stacked box and produces a lot of early three-and-outs, this contest could largely mirror the one in 2015. That said, Stanford is playing on home turf (11-0 streak in home-openers) and not with jet lag in a sweltering Midwest early afternoon. I think any outcome is possible simply because there are too many question marks in week 1 of the season. How good is Stanford’s defense? How will the O-line perform? Will Costello get the protection he needs? Also, how good will Hunter Johnson be under center in (potentially) a first start? Is NU’s defense a stout as in the past? I suppose we will have the answer to some of these questions after the game. Stanford should have the edge, but who knows at this point.
By Jeff Tarnungus on 08.31.19 5:08am