Who knows the last time Stanford started 1-2?
Anyone?
Well, I do. The year was 2017, and that year Stanford salvaged their season after Bryce Love’s heroic performance. The team went 9-5, including its loss to USC in the PAC-12 Championship. Overall, with their quarterback issues and defensive holes, the season was likely consider a success by many. This year, Stanford starts the season with a 1-2 record again. Will they be able to repeat the success of 2017?
Let’s start with the case for Stanford to turn around their season.
Connor Wedington has looked like the playmaker Stanford fans expected him to be. Although relatively quiet versus UCF, the junior receiver has shown flashes of Christian McCaffrey:
Against USC, Wedington had 197 all-purpose yards but then disappeared versus UCF. David Shaw must realize that for a team that desperately needs a spark, and Wedington could be the answer. In particular, Wedington has looked useful in screen passes and in the open field. The issue for him is that Shaw rarely calls those plays as they add risk of turnover and loss of yards. However, plays like a screen pass also give the Cardinal a chance at big yard pick-up. Getting the ball to Wedington should be a risk worth taking.
KJ Costello was a dark-horse Heisman candidate ahead of this season, but then he got knocked out of the game versus Northwestern and missed the USC matchup. He didn’t play his best versus UCF, especially in the first half. However, now that Costello is back, he’ll give the Cardinal a chance in almost any game when he’s playing well. Last year, he played hero versus Oregon and UCLA. David Shaw will need to let Costello loose and give him a chance at playing hero again if he wants to keep the team’s bowl chances alive.
Believe it or not this Stanford team has a lot of similarities to the 2017 one. David Shaw had Bryce Love, who three games in was just a young, up-and-coming running back. Connor Wedington could be a similar answer, although he does not typically line up in the backfield. In 2017, Costello came into a struggling offense and resurrected it; he’ll need to do the same again this year.
Unfortunately, however, there are a lot more reasons to think Stanford misses a bowl game.
The first being their difficult schedule. They play Oregon next, Washington two weeks later, and they conclude the season with Washington State, Cal, and Notre Dame. Those are five ranked teams, and Stanford will need to win at least one of those games to make a bowl. Plus, they also face Colorado on the road, and Stanford will likely be the underdog in that game. To get to six wins, Stanford will need upset a couple teams.
The second (and somewhat third) reason is Stanford’s lack of depth after suffering injuries and many seniors departed. Walker Little, Stanford’s star lineman, is out for the year. Foster Sarell, another highly regarded lineman, has been injury prone. Linebacker Ricky Miezan, who showed lots of promise ahead of the year, is out for an extended period of time. Furthermore, aside from losing key players like Love, Arcega-Whiteside, and Irwin, Stanford also had many players exhaust their last year of eligibility, including Kaden Smith and a handful of linemen. With the combination of injuries and departing players, Stanford has been forced to play 13 true freshmen this season, which is not normal for David Shaw.
The last reason is Stanford’s development of players. Most of these players Stanford recruited have not panned out. The defense is filled with upperclassmen, many being at least four-star recruits, and Stanford lacks a dominating force on the defensive side. I blame player development. Senior Curtis Robinson, for example, was considered a five-star linebacker on some recruiting sites, yet he hasn’t progressed (at least partially due to injuries) and is just now starting for the first time.
Ultimately, the odds of making a bowl game looked stacked against Stanford. Can we really expect Connor Wedington to turn into a Bryce Love/Christian McCaffrey type figure? No. Can we expect KJ Costello to play hero every week? No, he simply lacks the offensive line to be protected long enough. However, we must still keep in mind that the Cardinal have David Shaw’s steadying presence. Shaw’s teams seem to always start off slow and turn around late in the season.
But with a difficult schedule ahead and the lack of depth, I just don’t see this team making a bowl game. There’s a long road ahead to six wins.
Comments
Hard to imagine 5 more wins
Where are the wins going to come from? Maybe OSU but they are improved and Stanford plays them in Corvallis. Maybe Arizona that we play at home. Maybe Colorado. Probably UCLA we play at home. But that is it. Cal is much improved this year. WSU in the Palouse is really daunting. Huskies, Ducks and Irish are really good and although we get all three at home, I don’t see enough crowd support (attendance) to push the team to an upset. I don’t see this team resembling 2017 but who knows, maybe some freshmen will step up, we get a few breaks and turnovers and we go bowling with 6 wins (or even 5 if there is a bowl availability). Anyone for Las Vegas in December?
By gaffman on 09.17.19 4:00pm
I Think That We Could Get To Six Wins
But it will not be easy. Agree OSU, Arizona, Colorado and UCLA are doable. Then we need an upset or to beat Cal.
I also believe that playing a bunch of Freshmen is going to pay dividends for this team down the line, and may force Shaw to both be more creative AND simplify his offense (I know this sounds counterintuitive but basically keep the playcalling simple, yet diverse). Something that players with less experience can handle. I thought both the offensive line and the linebackers looked ok in the second half, with many fresh faces.
Look, we did beat Northwestern which is not a bad win. UCF and ND out of conference is really tough. I thought going in to the season that we would likely lose 2 out of 3 out of conference, but win enough in conference to get to 6 – 6. Unfortunately, I had USC down for a win. So I think it gets tougher now.
Every week is gut check time.
Go Cardinal!
By hoyaparanoia on 09.17.19 4:38pm
I'm with you on playing freshman
They need the experience for the future and it’s not like they’d be replacing stars. This is a great year to see what the young guys have to offer.
By worldblee on 09.17.19 5:43pm
Even mediocre football teams make bowl games
Let’s face it, Stanford is, at best, a mediocre football team. So is Northwestern, Stanford’s only win. But Colorado and Arizona are also mediocre and OSU and UCLA are weak. So Stanford can and should win those games. That leaves Washington and Cal. [Oregon, Washington State, and Notre Dame are good football teams] Washington is well coached but a poor road team that Stanford catches at home. An upset by the Cards is definitely possible. As for the Bears, they have a good defense and they did beat Washington. But Stanford plays them late in the season when a lot of the backups will have gained considerable experience. If Stanford takes care of business with the teams they should beat, I think the Cards will be favored against Cal.
The real question is why is Stanford mediocre. Injuries? Sure, but two years of injuries indicates a systemic problem. Weak line play on both sides of the line? Yes, but if you go down the roster, there are loads of players listed on both sides of the ball. But, for two years in a row, they have been either easily blocked, pushed back, or run around. It is the coaches’ job to make them stronger. They have failed miserably at this. "Mistakes" by the defensive backs? Not really. Adebo got burned by FCU, but he’ll adjust. He remains quite good. But you put safeties there to prevent the long bombs. They are all slow, but Akina knows that. So again, the coaching failed by not prepping them for what to expect. Offensive game plan? Shaw is bull headed. Prichard is essentially useless. So what else is new? Shaw adjusted last year well enough to garner 9 wins. Pretty sure he’ll do the same this year to get 6. But he’s not about to change his system. So no reason to expect much more.
By SU74 on 09.18.19 9:03am
Gaping holes in Strength & Conditioning + Athletic Training departments
The injuries and lack of functional strength can be the direct result of the turmoil in the S&C position. Turley seems to have hit the cliff and the intermittent trainer staff has not been able to mend the injured players in time. The new people in those positions seem to be "system" people who have worked with Shaw + Turley before getting promoted from within. And only time will tell if they are changing the narrative
By layman on 09.18.19 10:44am
I don't see it
I’m probably too pessimistic, but after watching our team get outscored 80-10 between half time of the USC game and half time of the Central Florida game, I’m thinking this could be a team that might not even win 5 games. We looked like a team from the Walt Harris/Buddy Teevens era.
By brandtjl1 on 09.18.19 9:54am
Yes they will go bowling but barely
This year is not like 2017. The 1-2 start was due to the poor QB play and lack of pass rush. And we had a way better option in the wings with Costello to solve half the problem (yet Shaw decided to ride the chryst train to a near loss at Oregon st).
This year’s team feels leaky at a lot of places and unlucky at some. It needs an overhaul on coaching staff too to remove the rot in the foundation.
I still believe in this team after this initial storm. Shaw’s teams get better in November after he has figured out his pieces. Plus the freshmen will have significant reps when the schedule lightens.
By layman on 09.18.19 10:36am