I’m feeling betrayed. The beginning of the season was full of hope—and Stanford Athletics capitalized on it. They forced us to pay for season tickets way back in February, in exchange for a “season ticket priority” gate and a great football experience.
Four games into the season, and what do we get? An unfilled stadium where priority gates means nothing—and a team that’s scored one offensive touchdown in two games.
It’s finally time to question David Shaw. It’s true: Shaw is a Stanford man through and through. He attended Stanford, played football for Stanford, and his dad passed the coaching genes on to him. Shaw has the most wins in school history and has coached a Fiesta Bowl and three Rose Bowls. Even more impressive is that the start of Shaw’s career happened in such a short timeframe.
Even so, all of this feels like it happened a lifetime ago and we are now in Phase 2 of the David Shaw era. Of Shaw’s 83 wins, more than half were with Andrew Luck and Kevin Hogan. Since the 2016 Rose Bowl, Shaw hasn’t proven he can consistently win high stakes games: Stanford is 5-9 against ranked teams in that span.
To rebound, Shaw needs to seriously consider making changes in the coaching staff. I love Tavita Pritchard as a person, but the offense hasn’t gotten its job done under him. Instead of always promoting people from within, Shaw should look outside the program to bring in new blood and fresh perspectives—simply continuing the same thing isn’t working any longer. The other Pac-12 programs have caught up. We need to innovate.
But there’s a more disturbing trend: player development. In 2006, Stanford had its worst season in recent memory, going only 1-11. Each subsequent year, however, Stanford showed steady improvement until in 2009 it went to its first bowl game in eight years. The difference wasn’t because of recruiting. Players on the 2006 team came from recruiting classes that averaged 41st in the country. Players on the 2009 team also came from recruiting classes that averaged 41st in the country. The difference wasn’t recruiting—Stanford may not have been able to get the best players, but Stanford was able to develop them.
Two years later, Stanford would appear in the Fiesta Bowl. Four years after that, Kevin Hogan—only a three-star recruit—became Stanford’s winningest QB. Stanford successfully developed the three-star Hogan into an NFL talent.
Boy, how things have changed. Players recruited on this year’s team came from recruiting classes that were ranked an average 23rd. K.J. Costello was once considered one of the premiere quarterbacks in the Pac-12. Davis Mills was ranked #1 overall. Paulson Adebo was considered one of the best corners in college football. Stanford is getting some of the best talent in college football—but the talent isn’t developing. In fact, it seems to be regressing. After the 2015 regular season, Stanford demolished Iowa in the Rose Bowl. But each season since then seems to have gotten progressively worse, bringing us to where we are now.
Stanford scored 70 points in the first four games (17.5 ppg) and has given up 118 points (29.5 ppg). The only seasons this century that Stanford gave up more points through the first four games were 2002 (2-9), 2005 (5-6), 2006 (1-11), and 2007 (4-8). And the only season this century that Stanford scored fewer through four games was the 2006 season when Stanford finished 1-11.
The difference, though, is that in 2006 Stanford fans had nothing to look forward to except the tailgate. Now the expectations for Stanford are (and should be) higher. How else can we rationalize the audacity of Stanford Athletics making its fans jump through hoops in February just to get season tickets? And if the program doesn’t get fixed—and fast—they might lose more than just football games—they might also lose fans. Through thick and thin, I’ve always loved Stanford. But right now I’m feeling like Stanford doesn’t love me.
Comments
I Think This Is A Little Self Abosrbed
Stanford football does not owe any of us anything. If you thought that the team was going to be better than .500 this year, than you were looking at the schedule through rose colored glasses. The only surprise so far this year was beating Northwestern and losing to USC. I had those reversed but still with the team at 1 – 3 at this point.
Yes, yes and yes on assistant coaches and player development. But don’t blame Tavita Pritchard. I cannot believe he has any real authority over our offense. He was not a good QB, or QB’s coach, and is merely a friendly placeholder to administer David Shaw’s offense. The fact that we have someone as an "offensive coordinator" who, in my view, could not even get hired by a top 75 team as a QB’s coach is alarming. But this is more about David Shaw and lost opportunity.
You speak of losing the fan base. What fan base? Sure…..the stadium has been a little fuller than 15 years ago…..but there remains limited interest among a comparatively small student body and you are not going to "create" rabid fans out of Stanford graduates who were largely indifferent to the program in the past. Going to the games is fun and part of the Stanford experience, but taking the actual football too seriously is beyond most people’s interest. They actually have other things to do in life.
Expectations to hold the university accountable for the state of the football program, especially under David Shaw, seem far-fetched. I am not sure that it is even a huge priority in the grand scheme of things. The most remarkable and mind-boggling thing that ever happened to Stanford football (in modern times) was the arrival of Jim Harbaugh and the complete transformation of a moribund program. Not just in results, but in attitude and style. The second most remarkable event was the elevation of David Shaw which, at the time, did not seem like a no-brainer. Yet it resulted in conference championships, Rose Bowl wins, etc.
Stanford is lucky to have David Shaw as Head Coach. No amount of pressure is going to impact what he does if he has not come around to a certain view on his own. He is a smart and proud man. I believe that he can and will address the issues the team has. But it will be painful for him and a slow process. Have faith. Getting "angry" at Shaw and "disappointed" in the university is a bit misguided in my view.
To put things in perspect, this is a wonderful blog. I enjoy every year reconvening with my ROT friends like Jeff, Brendan, Blackjoy, layman, and the 5 – 15 other members who post somewhat regularly. No criticsim here (at all), but the blog goes radio silent on football for much of the year, and is often slow or negligent in posting pre or post game analysis. I get it. We all have other things to do in our life and I do truly appreciate the effort that all of the ROT staff makes. Without you, we would not even have a blog. But taken as a microcosm of arguably a more active cohort of the Stanford football fan base (both the blog and number of commenters), it is telling and begs the question – "To whom and to what extent does the football program owe performance or accountability, and why?".
What we are seeing is not suddenly new or different. The writing has been on the wall for several years. Perhaps injuries and our schedule exacerbate the effect a bit this year, but there should be no surprise. At some point, David Shaw’s intelligence, passion and pride will prevail over his stubborness. We are just going to have to wait it out and, to some degree, the worse things are this year – perhaps the sooner change will come.
By hoyaparanoia on 09.27.19 9:44am
Nice post, hoya
In the end, Shaw is answerable to 1) his employer, the university (is he living up to Stanford’s expectations, is the program reflecting well on the values of the university, etc.); 2) the young men on the team he leads (is he giving them the best environment in which to play the sport safely and successfully, while preparing them for a potential pro-career or some other walk of life); 3) all the people associated with the program (assistant coaches, grad assistants, sports doctors, strength trainers, etc.) and, finally, 4) the donors and fans who support the team financially and emotionally. But of all the stakeholders that Shaw is answerable to, the fans are probably last in the pecking order (significantly behind the university, the players, the staff and the generous donors who actually fund the entire undertaking). Hence, I am aware that my voice does not count for much.
Nonetheless, I have been dismayed to watch the team’s most recent slide; and yes, as hoya points out above, this has been developing for years now by slow degrees. In the first seasons, I may have been critical of Shaw for his game-day management, but always held him in highest esteem as CEO of the football program. Still, despite his sometimes overly conservative game-day coaching, he delivered year after year, and the team flourished. In the last few years, I have grown less convinced of his abilities as program CEO, as he has allowed the coaching staff to slide in quality. A good CEO does not let this happen in an organization: you find the best people, hire them and empower them. This is not what has happened since his first year on the job: the best assistant coaches are now gone, and the replacements are a clear level below the previous staff. Furthermore, at least on offense, he remains a micro-manager and refuses to delegate to his OC. This is poison for a program, and we are seeing the results. The most obvious upshot of this decline in the level of the coaching staff is player development: the whole is now smaller than the sum of the individual parts, which is an ironic flip on what used to be a Stanford strength during the last decade. Players are underperforming vs. their potential (based upon recruiting rankings). Toughness and conditioning have waned. Injuries are piling up. Intellectual brutality is a thing of the past.
Shaw has to fix this. But not for me or the other fans; rather, for himself, his players, his employer and the people who help him run the program. Shaw is proud and stubborn, but he is not stupid. He needs to recognize the crisis for what it is and take no prisoners in fixing the situation. This has to start by having uncompromising standards for his staff, holding them to these standards and taking action on those who fail to deliver. The question is: does Shaw have the toughness and nerve to act on this? He’s smart enough to know what to do. But will he be willing to rock the family culture he has favored during his tenure? I am not sure.
I would like to see him coach at Stanford for another decade. But it won’t happen if he doesn’t raise the standards among his staff and take some chances with talented outside coaches. Player development, attitude and morale will follow; and the Ws will take care of themselves.
By Jeff Tarnungus on 09.27.19 12:19pm
One thing I'm confused about...
There seems to be consensus that Shaw had good assistant coaches early in his tenure and that the current crew is not nearly as good. Did Shaw just inherit good assistant coaches like Fangio, Roman, Hart, Mason, Hamilton, etc initially? Did he never hire a good assistant coach? Or is it this group’s view that he used to hire good ones and now he doesn’t? The other thing that I’m confused about is that Roman seemed to be a great offensive coordinator at Stanford but he got run out of San Francisco and Buffalo. Did Andrew Luck make Roman seem better than he was?
By brandtjl1 on 09.27.19 10:40am
For the most part, Shaw inherited his excellent assistants
Taggart and Fangio left when Harbaugh did, but Shaw retained Hamilton, Mason, Hart, Tarver, Polian and Turley. Pritchard was already a grad assistant under Harbaugh in 2010. Mike Bloomgren was Shaw’s first significant hire in 2011.
Polian (Texas A&M) and Tarver (Raiders) left after 2011.
Hamilton left after 2012 (to join Andrew Luck as OC of the Colts). Bloomgren was promoted to replace him.
Derek Mason left after 2013 (HC Vanderbilt).
Randy Hart left after 2016 (retired).
Mike Bloomgren left after 2017 (HC Rice).
Shannon Turley was dismissed earlier this year for undisclosed reasons.
Lance Anderson, the current defensive coordinator, has been with the program since 2007 and rose up through the ranks, starting as coach of the defensive tackles. Tavita Pritchard, the current offensive coordinator, joined in 2010 as a grad assistant. It is safe to say that neither of these coaches is on the radar chart of any other Power 5 football team to take a bigger or even equivalent role. Good coaches (witness the exodus during the years 2010-2017) eventually move on to bigger opportunities. Lesser coaches just hope to stick around where they are. That’s what we now have.
By Jeff Tarnungus on 09.27.19 12:39pm
Duane Akina
Joined in 2014. Defensive backs coach. Not sure if he was Shaw’s or Anderson’s hire. Certainly Shaw blessed the hire, if not directly involved initially.
By hoyaparanoia on 09.27.19 1:33pm
Ron Gould Too
Joined in 2017. Running backs. Replaced Lance Taylor who went to Notre Dame last year after two years as a receivers coach with the Carolina Panthers. Stanford ran the ball really really well during his tenure (2014 – 2016).
By hoyaparanoia on 09.27.19 1:41pm
Cal fans were livid
when they heard Gould had hired on at Stanford. Gould had been the coach of such Cal legends as Shane Vereen and Jahvid Best during their golden stretch with Jeff Tedford. Gould did a good job with Bryce Love, at least in 2017; but Love was an extra-special player. The jury is still out on whether he can develop a stable of top running backs.
By Jeff Tarnungus on 09.27.19 2:19pm
Bryce Love was hampered by a ragtag TWU
Love totaled a meager 739 yards rushing in 2018. It’s been many years since a Stanford RB got caught deep in the backfield as often as happened to Bryce Love last year. Wierdly, the TWU was able to protect Costello long enough for KJ to rack up impressive passing numbers. Meanwhile, the TWU’s run blocking was grossly inept. Defenders were getting to Love at the same time as Costello’s handoff. Aside from injuries and lack of depth, it would be interesting to learn who’d been training the TWU in its toreador choreography.
By Candid One on 09.28.19 12:57am
Stop Whining
No one forced you to buy season tickets. There has been an early deadline for a long time and is very reasonable. It was not done in exchange for priority gates. What possible difference does the early deadline make in your decision? If they extended the deadline for a couple of months, are you going to get more info about the team? Just what is your point?
If you think they’re not doing as good a job at player development or you don’t think the coaches are as good in the past, fine. That’s worth talking about. I think you need more info or more time to make that point convincing.
But stop the silly whining about season ticket rules. If you don’t want to get them early for some reason, don’t. Or wait and get them (or single game tickets) at the last minute only if you’re happy with the team. Managing ticket sales by having deadlines has always been done and is reasonable and necessary.
By andreaallennyc on 09.27.19 11:38am
Just look around
If you look at relatively recent head coaching hires at ASU, Oregon St, Washington, WSU, Cal, Colorado, USC and UCLA, it is obvious that these coaches have moved their programs forward (too early to tell for Colorado but promising and UCLA is an enigma after that crazy win in Pullman). Utah has been consistently good with the same coach. So, as many have pointed out, the coaching staff at Stanford has not lived up to expectations and seems to be stuck in the past. But, our regression is also due to a lack of horses in the offensive line and backfield. Stanford is the only school among the Pac 12 teams to run an old-school pro-type offense. This offense is predicated on an outstanding offensive line, a stud running back, and a QB that can sprinkle the runs with effective West Coast passing. Stanford does not have an outstanding and cohesive offensive line, a stud running back, or currently, a QB that can run a West Coast passing offense with exceptional efficiency (in part because he doesn’t have the receiving corp). So, the coaching philosophy and scheme does not match the talent this year. The untimely penalties are another story. I dread watching the OSU game tomorrow but will watch and root just the same, hoping for a miracle.
By gaffman on 09.27.19 4:42pm
Mills will turn things around
Hey guys! ok..u all knew this post was coming so w/o any further delay here it is! This will be the turnaround game for The Cardinal. Actually last game was a true turnaround imo, holding Oregon’s high powered offense to only 21 points is very impressive!! I look for the defense to hold Oregon State to 14 points or less If this happens we will win because DMills (on an average day) is going to put 20 points and throw for at least 350 yards(as he did on the road against USC).
So pls don’t panic, this is probably the first year in a while that our Cardinal underclassmen are more talented than their upperclassmen teammates! So much for the Cardinal seniority system…it is what it is…
So, anything can happen tomorrow but if our defense holds and Mills cranks things into gear, we will see the Cardinal play and perform like never before!!
By Slot_Man22 on 09.27.19 8:16pm
Mills needs time
Davis Mills currently lacks the play book grasp that a healthy Costello now has; he’s where KJ was last year. He needs playing time. He still lacks much touch instinct on his passes. Costello has that, when his hand isn’t injured. Now, with KJ sidelined, Mills will get his playing time but his improvement will take time.
What Stanford needs, especially without Costello, is what Cam Scarlet showed against Oregon, that the ground game is there—despite the tattered TWU. Scarlett is a clone of Tyler Gaffney, in size, speed, and difficulty to tackle, and as a senior, his mental toughness has developed. Scarlett had 19 carries for 97 yards (5.1 ypc), more than double what the entire Oregon backfield gained. He was already showing 5+ yards per carry in the first half but the coaches seemed to be distracted by Costello being mysteriously off. In 2013, Gaffney had 45 carries for 158 yards (3.5 ypc) to allow Stanford to hog time of possession and beat a potent Oregon offense. Mike Bloomgren and David Shaw ran Gaffney against consistently stacked defenses—with a healthier TWU. In this Oregon game, with a makeshift TWU, Scarlett was doing better than Gaffney had done. Does it take a Bloomberg to notice that? A purposeful ground game will help Mills get his confidence and set up play action as well.
By Candid One on 09.28.19 12:42am
So, how much more time does Mills need?? Lol
By Slot_Man22 on 09.29.19 12:03pm