Update: KJ Costello has officially been ruled out for the USC game.
A showdown between KJ Costello vs. JT Daniels, two top-ranked quarterbacks, was supposed to draw national attention. Suddenly, after week one, the narrative has changed into the battle of the backups, following injuries to both starters.
Davis Mills will likely start under center for the Cardinal Saturday night and undoubtedly gives Stanford the edge at quarterback. David Shaw has evident confidence in the third-year man, drawing him up 14 of Stanford’s 34 total passing attempts in the opening win. The only mistakes Mills made were a couple of handoff miscues and a few overthrows. Those blunders should be corrected come game day.
Meanwhile, the Trojan quarterback, Kedon Slovis, is a true freshman who didn’t expect to see much action this year. Slovis looked solid in the win versus Fresno State, but the Trojan offense struggled more with Slovis behind center, reaching the end zone only once.
With two backup quarterbacks playing, this game becomes less predictable, leaving the victory in the hands of the best defense.
The Cardinal defense, led by cornerback Paulson Adebo, looked surprisingly good against Northwestern. They forced two interceptions, and the Wildcat quarterbacks struggled. USC, which hired a new offensive coordinator, planned to use the air raid offense this year. In USC’s opener, JT Daniels threw the ball 34 times in the first half versus Fresno State before exiting with a knee injury. Now, the Trojans have an identity crisis. Their backup only threw the ball eight times in the second half, and the Trojans resorted to their run game, which could test Stanford’s defensive front more than the Wildcats in week one.
Vavae Malepeai ran for 134 yards against Fresno State, and former freshman phenom Stephen Carr is back after battling injuries last season. Stanford will need to win the trenches, something they proved they are capable of in week one.
Meanwhile, the Trojan defense inexperience showed versus Fresno State. The Bulldogs scored 23 points and collected 462 total yards with a new quarterback under center. Notably, quarterback Jorge Reyna shined, throwing for 256 yards and running for 88. In other words, Davis Mills will have the opportunity to show off his arms and legs.
The battle of backups is hard to predict, mainly because we have only seen both quarterbacks in limited action. At the end of the day though, Mills is more experienced and more talented than his USC counterpart. No, he did not lead the Cardinal offense into the end zone, but the offense showed flashes of its potential. I trust that with a week practicing with the first team Mills will be more comfortable leading the Cardinal to a 24-17 victory.
Tune in Saturday at 7:30 PT on ESPN.
Comments
I don't think the QB's will be the difference in this game.
I agree Mills is more talented and slightly more experienced, but it won’t matter if Stanford can’t run the ball and SC can. Stanford needs to improve in several areas by Saturday.
(1) Inside linebackers need to read the other team’s plays better. Several times, Northwestern ran some misdirections or screens that could have been costly had their QB been more accurate and their ends able to catch. SC’s offense should be easier to read (the air raid offense only has about 14 different plays) and inexperienced QB’s have a tendency to telegraph plays. But the inside linebackers will be the key to stopping SC’s running game.
(2) The punter needs to punt better. Hopefully what we saw last week was simply freshman, first game jitters.
(3) The O-line is still a work in progress and needs to improve. Sarell seems slow; keeping him on the right side is a good idea. Rouse should do fine as Little’s replacement (in part because Little didn’t play all that well last week before the injury). On runs, no one gets into the second level all that quickly (where did Stanford’s use of a fullback go?). On pass plays, virtually everyone on the O line seemed to be pushed backwards several times. Not sure if it was a balance issue or a strength issue. The good news is that SC was vulnerable last week to runs around the end (particularly by Fresno’s QB), so mixing up the types of runs may be effective in slowing down their rush.
(4) Scarlett and/or Maddox could benefit from occasionally pausing before bursting into the line. Sure, neither one has McAffrey or Love’s quick acceleration (few do), but there were several plays that seemed to have lanes open that they did not see because they were committed to their initial direction.
(5) The nickel back needs to step up. Adebo is a stud; SC will avoid him. Eboh and the two safeties played well. But the air raid will test the other D-back position all day.
All this may seem a bit nit picky and it is. The offense last week should have scored at least three more touchdowns (two Mills’ fumbles, an overthrow to an open St. Brown, drive killing holding penalties) against a good Northwestern defense. If Stanford can generate 4 TD’s on Saturday, it should win.
By SU74 on 09.05.19 12:06pm
Agree that Stanford needs to run to win
Putting too much pressure on Mills to do what KJ does is not a recipe for success.
Also, fork that cheap shot that took KJ out of last week’s game.
By worldblee on 09.05.19 2:13pm
For Stanford to have any hope of winning the conference, we need to win this without Costello's arm talent
Rather than say it won’t come down to QB, I’m hoping that we can win this game, going away, without Costello/Mills putting up big numbers. If we want to have any realistic hope of getting back on top of the Pac-12, we need to win this with Defense and Running. USC’s running back Malapilea(?) is like a stronger version of Stephan Taylor. We need to stop him from giving SC big plays and getting first downs.
I agree that Stanford got exposed on screen plays and passes to the flat. The linebackers have to pick up SC’s backs because I’m betting that if Slovis gets picked off early or fails to convert down field, he’s going to start throwing to his backs.
Stanford used to win the conference with running and defense (not offense). UW has won the conference with running and defense. If Stanford wants to get back on top, we have to shut down USC’s offense and run the ball convincingly.
Right now, I’m most scared of UCF, WSU, ND, Utah (if they win the South). Granted, any team on our schedule could beat us, but I think ND beats us if we play tomorrow, and probably Utah as well. I think UCF will want it more than we will and is going to be willing to take more risks to beat us, thank god the game is at 12:30 PDT and not EDT, or I would chalk it up to a loss right now. We don’t match up well with WSU. Their new QB looks like he’s picked up with Minshew left off, so unless WSU’s defense is worse than last year, I’m not feeling good about our chances. To beat WSU, Shaw will need to go back to Shaw ball. We aren’t going to beat WSU in a shoot-out. We proved that last year when we had better receivers and WSU’s CB’s were the worst in the conference.
By Blackjoy on 09.05.19 3:34pm
Very Good Insights Because of the Future Implications
Damn Blackjoy, I don’t always agree with some of your posts, but I agree wholeheartedly with this one!
The reason for my strong agreement is because of what your post implies for the rest of the season. While we have good talent at Stanford, our current unparalleled record of success has really been due to execution. This means winning time of position, playing good defense and allowing the other team to make the critical errors.
If we run even moderately well, the other teams are now forced to focus on stopping the run which opens up the game for our quarterbacks. I believe that Stanford’s offense has the potential to be the most balanced in the conference. We need the running game for that balance to assert itself.
Your point about WSU and what happened last year really got my attention. As you astutely note, we are probably not going to win shootouts with UCF, WSU and Notre Dame. I would add Oregon to that list. I agree with you that execution of "Shaw ball" is going to be important.
As a I final point on execution, here is a quick observation from last week’s Oregon game. I almost always support our fellow PAC-12 teams. I have pulled for Oregon in all of their playoff games and was pulling for them last week against Auburn. To me, one of the biggest plays was the fumble by their QB when they had good field position after a long punt return. While Auburn only got 3 points out of the turnover, this execution error hurt Oregon’s momentum when they could have put Auburn into a 21-3 deficit before half.
I agree with Blackjoy that we need to make a statement in this game against USC since their program is currently in flux and struggling for an identity. Go Stanford.
By Stanfan79 on 09.07.19 3:53pm
Not to worry
Overall I dont think USC is strong enough to take down the Cardinal. From a QB perspective we are good either way. Yes, Mills didnt come out and move the crowd but coming off the bench is always a challenge. Not worried about Mills and would love to see him start against SC and play the full game. The season is still young and KJ should sit this game as a precaution. The Cardinal offense looks the same w Mills or KJ. Also, make no mistakes…..Northwestern is a SOLID football team!!!!…they are going to win some games this season!!
Anyway, I predict a blowout Stanford 38 – USC 10
By Slot_Man22 on 09.05.19 4:11pm
I'm with you, Slot_Man22
Lot of good things in that game: 100-yd rusher (1st since 2017); huge TOP advantage (best since 2015?); twice the yards gained as the opponent; excellent QB play from Costello (missed a couple he’d like to have over). The D is the fastest I believe we’ve ever had, and there is depth throughout. Adebo is a stud; so quick. The O needs work, but it was far from the shambles we saw last year. Only one sack given up; no interceptions. Mills, if he starts Saturday, will do just fine. We just need to learn how to score. Holding penalties, etc. hurt us; that should begin to clear up as the season progresses. I reckon we beat USC; an 18-year old freshman QB with a whole part game in experience is probably going to struggle. They will likely try to make up for it by running. That won’t be nearly as effective as it was last year. I hope Shaw puts them on a plane for Florida on Sunday afternoon. Get down to FL and get over the jet lag (going east always hurt me much more than flying west); and experience the ghastly heat and humidity before stepping on a football field to play.
By jafco99 on 09.05.19 7:12pm
Mills is going to start
Apparently Shaw is not playing Costello.
By Blackjoy on 09.05.19 7:14pm
I Think That We Beat USC....
….our back up QB is better than their back up QB, and our defense is better. TOP in the last game was AWESOME. So nice to see a Stanford game decided on defense (though I would like the offense to be up to what is required). Can’t believe that USC is favored, despite the home game.
I too, am concerned about the UCF game given the time zone issues. I HATE to look ahead (this is USC this week-end after all), but we need to get to the east coast as early as possible and aclimate. Brandon Wimbush has proven himself to be as good, and as bad, as he was at ND. 50% completion rates, supplemented by QB runs. I don’t think that he lasts the season as UCF’s starting QB, but probably he starts against Stanford.
But we need to take care of business at USC this week-end!
By hoyaparanoia on 09.05.19 8:28pm
Only way we win against USC is if...
You predict the first play from scrimmage is a hand-off up the middle. Followed by a….hand-off up the middle.
I can’t tell you how warm and fuzzy I felt when we did that against NU.
I will wager that Winbush does not finish the game against us, if he starts (which is me predicting will be ineffective). I saw a little of the back-up behind Winbush and he looked waaaaaaay better than Winbush in terms of passing. Frankly I don’t understand how Winbush won the job, so maybe I’m a victim of a small sample size.
USC will be dangerous, as any team is on our schedule. USC has athletes and ego. We have to be careful of turnovers. I fear this is going to be a painful game as one pundi put it, Shaw has a habit of not letting it look easy. I’m not completely sold on Mills, but his mechanics looked good.
By Blackjoy on 09.05.19 9:48pm