The fine folks over at ESPN have certainly done their homework, in more ways than one. They not only have created a metric that gives fans and readers something to talk about, but it’s also something that we need.
ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) generates an index for every team in major college football, or the Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS). This number measures team’s true strength on a net points scale; expected point margin vs average opponent on a neutral field.
It is said to be the measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward with the rest of each specific season. The FPI represents a value of points above or below average for a team. It also generates a projected result based upon 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season’s scheduled games, or in this case, all six of the newly-scheduled games on the Pac-12 season.
ESPN updates these numbers daily and are certainly subject to change quite rapidly in this season that is 2020.
So, today we are here to discuss their numbers for your Stanford Cardinal. And the win-loss projections for each game this season.
The Cardinal’s 2020 season schedule was announced this past weekend and as such, we have our first look at what the ESPN FPI has to say.
Week 1 @ Oregon Ducks
ESPN gives the Card just a 19.1% chance to win this one as Oregon’s FPI number is the sixth-best in the country.
Week 2 vs Colorado Buffaloes
ESPN has this as the best chance for a win for Stanford, right at 81.5% over the Buffs.
Week 3 vs Washington State
ESPN has Stanford with a 74.9% chance to hand Washington State a road loss.
Week 4 @ California Golden Bears
ESPN has Stanford winning the Big Game 52.8% of the time this season, noting that Cal ranks 42nd on their FPI, compared to Stanford’s 31st ranking.
Week 5 @ Washington Huskies
ESPN has Stanford with a 45.4% chance of knocking off Washington.
Week 6 vs Oregon State Beavers
ESPN grants Stanford a 79.0% chance to beat the Beavs to close out the ‘regular season.’
Overall, ESPN has Stanford with a 8.9 on the FPI, or 31st in the country. They give Stanford a 0.5% chance of winning out and just a 2.9% chance of winning the conference this season.
Still, a projected win-loss record of 4-2 with the chance to go 5-2 in this of all seasons is still a glimmer of hope.
Go Card!
Comments
Why Football Now?
The virus has spread rapidly on and around several California campuses, despite sparsely populated dormitories and classrooms. From San Diego to Chico, the outbreaks have thrown universities into crisis mode as they scramble with tighter restrictions and attempts to cajole students into safer behavior. We know that even those infected with the virus who are minimally symptomatic can develop "long-haul" complications that can last for 6 months or more, and there is no, I repeat, no treatment for "long-haul" complications. If only one football player develops these complications the decision to play football this year will be a tragedy.
By gaffman on 10.07.20 5:16pm
Agreed 100%...
The benefits in NO way outperform the risks, the abbreviated season is a joke, the rosters are far from complete and the interest level, based on NFL, MLB and NBA ratings is down substantially, with good reason.
Much as I look forward to my Cardinal football fix every year, and even as cranky as I am without it, I’m extremely disappointed in the decision to move forward…
By Plan Man on 10.09.20 1:30pm
Agree
It’s just greed, ultimately. It’s not like anything changed in a positive direction from August until now. If anything things on campuses have gotten worse, not better. It seems like a needless risk for the players, and a sop to the schools that rely the most on the take of the athletic cash from TV and the like. It would have made more sense to sit the season, wait for this situation to pass, and resume in 2021. Truly, there is no advantage at all from having a half-assed, half-schedule pseudo-season with tons of players wisely opting out, other than from the perspective of $$$ for the universities, at times when they feel cash strapped due to losing a significant portion of their "profit" from room, board and on-site fees for students who are doing 2020-21 remotely. That, folks, is what is going on here, and it’s more than a little annoying that it’s being balanced on the backs of our student-athletes.
By Brendan Ross on 10.13.20 11:53am
A little optimistic
Do they know about the opt-outs?
By vk on 10.07.20 5:42pm