Look, Stanford has a great basketball team.
Oregon just happens to have an even better team this year.
Just a day after the men’s team also lost to Oregon in their regular-season finale, the women’s basketball team just didn’t have it against the Ducks, dropping the Pac-12 Championship Game, 89-56 against Oregon.
In what is just their sixth loss this year, the Cardinal saw a three-point first-quarter lead evaporate quickly with an ugly second-quarter performance, heading to halftime down 43-26. That was all it took for Oregon to cruise in the second half and now three of Stanford’s five conference losses this season have come at the hands of the Ducks.
Stanford saw a dismal shooting effort as they finished just .345 from the field and just .231 from behind the arc. They’re now 0-3 against Oregon and have been outscored by a combined margin of 250-177 in these meetings as they’ve been unable to stop the nation’s most efficient offense at all this year.
The Cardinal are headed into the Big Dance, the 2020 NCAA Tournament, but after losing so convincingly to the Ducks (again), there are serious concerns as to just how far this team can make it in March/April.
This most recent result doesn’t come as a surprise and gives serious reason for concern entering the tournament. They’re still essentially locked into a No. 2 seed even with the loss but if their best efforts have seen them cast away so easily from an Oregon team who is one of the best in the country, the Cardinal are no match for the top tier of the bracket.
South Carolina, Baylor, Oregon and Maryland are the projected No. 1 seeds and all have looked relatively unbeatable this season even if Iowa State did just upend the Bears in the Big 12 Tournament. That 57-56 loss to the Cyclones snapped Baylor’s 58-game Big 12 winning streak.
So what do we have to hope for for the Cardinal in the NCAA Tournament?
It’s simple, actually, and it’s the same thing that the rest of the country will hope for: more surprise victories from lesser-ranked teams over the top tiers that even the playing field. If Iowa State can defeat Baylor this late in the year, it’s at the very least conceivable that one of these one-seed teams could drop a game before Stanford has to pair up with them.
The defense will have to improve as well as the Cardinal have forced few turnovers and allowed too many open shots in their losses this season. They’ve also got to cut down on the unforced errors themselves. In their losses this year, Stanford has combined for 92 turnovers, reaching the double-digit plateau of turnovers in each of their six losses including 22 against Arizona just two weeks ago.
There are other concerns, as readers @Blackjoy and @SU74 have commented, that likely need to be tightened up and fixed as we head towards the tournament, stemming from differing offensive structures, range shooting improvements and defensive lapses among others.
Now that we’re out of the conference championship, and the No. 2 seed is still in play, how far do you think this Stanford team will make it? Elite Eight? Final Four?
Comments
Stanford has a chance to win it all...next year
I agree that Stanford is firmly a second tier team. I was happy to see them break out a bit against UCLA, but they have struggled mightily this year when playing good teams. And they have nothing on Oregon, which is better on both sides of the ball.
I think the reality is that while Stanford has a very good offense, they make bad decisions when faced with a good defense. That was in evidence against both Oregon and Arizona, the two best defenses in the league. Kiana Williams is very good at penetrating and then passing to the perimeter, but good teams have edged her to the baseline on the penetration and caused her to simply throw it away. Or when Kiana is forced to cede her ball-handling responsibilities, Lexie has taken over, and she seems to be a poor dribbler. I can’t say how many times I’ve seen her put it on the floor and just lose control of it. Statistically, she’s one of the worst starters in the league when it comes to assist-turnover ratio. Which tells me the game plan is not playing to her strengths. She’s an excellent shooter, though, playing off the ball. The bigs maybe need to shoulder more of the load off of Kiana and Lexie, but despite Dodson’s return, nobody seems ready to step up. Fingall has been good, but not great. Kiana seems like the only woman who is a legit playmaker on her own, which makes it easy for defenses to key in on her. Nobody else has shown the ability to step up and take over in quite the same way. Lexie seems to have the potential but makes bad choices under stress. Belibi has shown flashes but is still building her confidence. We need Carrington or Jones to play alongside Kiana, and having them both out has made things much harder on the offense.
All of which makes me think that while we can make a good run this year, we will be much better next season. For one, I expect our inside play to improve with the continued development of Belibi and Prechtel, and the health of Dodson (plus Cameron Brink coming as one of the top freshmen in the country). That gives us three (maybe four) very good forwards, plus Prechtel can shoot the ball. Haley Jones’s return gives us a good ball handler to replace Williams as the primary point guard, and hopefully Brown can get better to spell her (plus another highly rated recruit, Jana Van Gytenbeek, coming it at the point). And if we have the Hulls and Hannah Jump around as deep threats, that gives us a chance at a complete offense. (Speaking of which, what happened to Jump’s playing time? She was shooting great into January but her minutes have dwindled down to nothing.) This year I’ll be happy if they can make a good run, but I don’t think we’re winning the championship without getting lucky in our matchups. But I have high hopes for next year (and the year or two after).
By StanWho? on 03.09.20 9:49am
Have to say I agree... next year
Especially after doing the research on Van Gytenbeek after she won the Gatorade Player of the Year award — really like what she may bring to the table. As far as everything else mentioned — I do feel as if fate is on the side of the Ducks as well this year and the tournament and all other awards are Sabrina’s to lose.
Almost best to set the expectations low this year and hope for the best with the knowledge that next year may be as good of a time to win it all as ever.
By Cam Mellor on 03.09.20 12:19pm
This was Tara's loss
I agree that this is not going to be Stanford’s year, but it is not for lack of talent (even with the injuries). It is because Tara has not prepared this team properly and good coaches on opposing teams know exactly how to exploit that. The biggest weakness on offense: not enough screens in the offense and those that are set are poorly executed by the screener and the dribbler. The biggest weaknesses on defense: inability by the bigs to defense the pick and roll (they all hang back way too far) and way, way too much sagging in from the wings. There’s a reason why players on opposing teams (like Minyon Moore) have season’s best 3 point shooting nights against Stanford, because their shots are uncontested as the defender has belatedly and ineffectively sagged off on a dribbler. Teach them to stop doing that.
Tara’s zone offense is also unbelievably bad. Against a 3/2 zone, you have to have someone at the free throw line who can shoot a turn around jump shot. Then, if they sag, you pass, pass, pass, not dribble, dribble as Kiana does, or, worse, watch Kiana dribble while standing still, as everyone else does. Just because it’s a zone doesn’t mean your players can’t move.
I’ll abridge my page and a half notes about the game into the following bullet points:
1. When the opponent switches on defense, pass the ball high (not bounce passes) to the big, being guarded by the shorter guard.
2. Against a soft press, the three non ball handlers have to move, then attack the basket. Against an in bounds press (like OSU) set up three in a line, screen, then move.
3. Stop trying to block 3 point shooters by jumping at them. Stick your hand in front of their eyes.
4. Never reach for the opponent’s ball by swatting your hand down; always swat up. No fouls that way.
5. When the opponent’s shot goes up, move, move, move to position as you watch the ball. Don’t just stand and watch.
6. Lexie Hull, when you drive and they sag, pass it out for an open three.
7. When popping out on offense, don’t avoid contact by moving away. Move slightly into the defender first and always move to the ball.
8. If you’re setting a screen, set it right on them. Way, way too many bullfighter, wave-as-they-go-by phantom screens.
9. Tara, get up off your seat and work the refs. Ionescu’s signature move involves a lengthy hesitation when dribbling that is illegal. And every time, she gives a slight push with her off hand. She’s a terrific player, but you’re not supposed to get away with all that until you’re in the pros. And have your players take acting classes. In the the Pac 12 women’s game, when somebody falls, there’s always a whistle.
10. If you remember nothing else: MOVE, SCREEN, MOVE, SCREEN, MOVE, SCREEN.
By SU74 on 03.09.20 6:12pm
Some great stuff here.
Arguably moot now, but you have nailed so many things in that post. Your comment on Stanford’s ridiculous screen technique is so painfully accurate, I’m amazed Tara doesn’t correct it. I’ve shaken my head so many times a that.
By Blackjoy on 03.12.20 9:26pm
Agreed on the great stuff here
Even if we don’t get to see if any improvements would have been made — these are great starting points to note for next year when the season tips off.
Honestly, you two seem to have some of the best discussion points on any of our California communities on a specific sport — in our hiatus from sports coverage — maybe either of you two would be interested in writing a FanPost for Rule of Tree — with hopes of the 2020-21 season being perhaps ‘it’ for the Cardinal? Would love to read it myself, that’s for sure!
By Cam Mellor on 03.13.20 7:36am