We’re in full-on prepare for the 2020 college football season as college sports writers, knowing that’s the next biggest event for college sports thanks to the coronavirus pandemic’s shutdown of all sports as we knew them.
That being said, there have been several outlets that have attempted to predict the 2020 season already, and most recently, CBS Sports took their turn. Writer David Cobb penned the Stanford Cardinal football team to finish fourth in the Pac-12 North, and a record of 6-6 (4-5).
A modest projection for the Cardinal, in my opinion, who have the pieces on offense and defense to certainly finish with a much better record than that. But, their success does largely lie with Davis Mills’ shoulder.
Before we go too much further into the Stanford prediction, it’s important to note a few things.
How they came up with their prediction:
Predictions are based on talent returning, coaching turnover and recent recruiting success, among other factors. In some cases, the location of a game played a role in the prediction of who will win.
Their full projections:
Pac-12 North
Cal: 11-1 (8-1)
Oregon: 10-2 (8-1)
Washington: 8-4 (6-3)
Stanford: 6-6 (4-5)
Oregon State: 5-7 (3-6)
Washington State: 3-9 (1-8)
Pac-12 South
USC: 10-2 (8-1)
Arizona State: 7-5 (5-4)
Utah: 8-4 (5-4)
UCLA: 6-6 (3-6)
Arizona: 4-8 (2-7)
Colorado: 3-9 (1-8)
Alright, so there those are. Again, modest for Stanford and a bit over for UCLA, in my opinion, on the other side of the spectrum. Both teams projected at 6-6 whereas I’d have them 7-5 for Stanford (at the very least) and 5-7 for UCLA (at best).
So, speaking specifically to Stanford, Cobb writes the following:
Wins: William & Mary, at Arizona, at UCLA, Oregon State, Colorado, BYU
Losses: USC, at Notre Dame, Washington State, at Oregon, at Washington, at Cal
Analysis: After Utah, Stanford is the Pac-12 program with the most continuity on its staff, and that should be more important than ever as programs enter the season without the benefit of spring practices. The Cardinal are coming off their first losing season in Shaw’s ninth years. But quarterback Davis Mills appears poised for a breakout junior season, and the schedule is favorable enough that Stanford should be back bowling again in 2020. Winning a Sept. 26 game against UCLA should give the Cardinal enough leeway to reach six wins even if their misery at the hands of Washington State continues for a fifth consecutive season.
I think those are relatively fair, but I also think that there are certainly chances to win at least two of those ‘losses’ above. You have to start with Washington State. The Cougars and new head coach Nick Rolovich are certainly expected to have a down year compared to Mike Leach’s standards, and even those weren’t that high albeit he did have David Shaw’s number of late. Also, have to say that the ‘loss to WSU’ would be only one of Washington State’s three wins in the above projection.
If Washington State is beating Stanford, they’re beating UCLA. They’re beating Colorado.
I’m sorry, that just doesn’t make sense.
And then a loss at Cal. Look, they’ve drank the Cal Cool-Aid at this point it seems over at CBS Sports, to have them projected to go 11-1, so I completely understand thinking they’re a better team than Stanford in these projections.
I, however, feel that the Cal-Stanford game this year is essentially a coin-flip. The Cardinal easily go 8-4 in the above projection as they could go 7-5, but 6-6, I just don’t necessarily see it with the way it’s outlined in the writeup.
Oh, and I’d also watch out for Arizona and Grant Gunnell, who is going to open up as a Heisman dark horse after a few weeks if he can come into the same form that he showcased in limited duty behind Khalil Tate last year.
Enough about what I think, what do you think of this prediction?
Comments
Stanford will not be the same team it was in 2019
The CBS prediction seems pretty clearly to be based entirely upon last year’s team. If the 2020 season is played and if Stanford can avoid significant injuries (both major ifs), last year will not be repeated for many reasons. Mills will improve, giving the Cards probably the top passer in the Pac 12. He will be protected by the best O line in the conference. And that line will return Stanford’s running game to where Shaw wants it to be. Pair that with a very deep receiving corps and the offense will be very hard to stop.
On defense, there will be issues and there remain a lot of questions. But Booker, Adebo, and the linebacker corps should shine. There is a lot of competition for the other five starting positions and that bodes well. So the season should play out much better than CBS predicts.
W & M: A win at home, with the opportunity to try out several players. 1-0
Ariz: They have a good QB, but nowhere near the defense to stop Stanford’s run game. 2-0
USC: A toss up. Stanford is at home. SC’s weaknesses will be revealed in it’s opener against Alabama. SC’s offense is very, very good, but I’m not sure their defense can stop Stanford’s run game. 3-0
UCLA: Chip Kelly has a lot to prove. And the streak was broken last year. A closer game than last year, but. 3-1
ND: Excellent offense. Stanford will keep it close. But ND is at home. 3-2
Washington State: Mike Leach is gone. Repeat Mike Leach is gone. And Stanford is at home. 4-2
Oregon: Herbert is gone. But Oregon is at home. So a toss up. Assuming Stanford is healthy. 5-2
Oregon State: At home. 5-2
Washington: Peterson is gone. The Huskies always play better at home. But Stanford is a better team. 6-2
Colorado: At home. 7-2
Cal: 11-1 for the Bears? Check Cobb’s Kool Aid. Stanford will pound and pound. 8-2
BYU: At home. Closer than many predict. 9-2
Bowl Game: Not the playoffs, but probably a high level bowl game. Shaw wants that tenth win. 10-2
Overly optimistic: heck, yeah. But that’s always the case for a Stanford fan before the season.
By SU74 on 05.05.20 9:17am
I Wish I Had The Confidence In This Team That I Used To Have
Unfortunately…….
1. I have no basis to believe that a strong run game will suddenly re-materialize behind an outstanding offensive line. It has been years since this was the case, and we have had arguable O-Line "talent" available (mostly). Bryce Love succeeded almost in spite of the O-Line. McCaffrey was off the charts great. We have little experience in the backfield, but some upside for sure. In recent years, we have struggled to gain 100 yards on the ground each game, averaging less than 4.0 yards per carry. Importantly, we have been unable to impose our will in "must succeed" situations. Given Shaw’s affinity for a strong run first offense and our focus on O-Line recruiting, this has been pretty inexplicable (ok…..some injuries hurt). We will likely be better than last year……..but well short of dominant on the ground.
2. Davis Mills is a very good QB. And we have the receivers. But my sense is that he is going to miss a few games due to injury. Hopefully not, but history suggests some potential fragility. Whoever is "next up" is going to be a big downgrade either due to inexperience or talent. And then there is that "playbook" issue.
3. On defense, in particular, we have been hurt by so many players (starters, potential starters) electing not to come back for a 5th year. Stanford just does not have the kind of depth to take that blow easily. Getting the defense up to where it needs to be is just going to be a lot tougher than a normal transition year.
So…………I think 6 – 6 is about right, though I think we beat WSU and perhaps lose to BYU. Upside is 7 – 5. Not much downside below 6 – 6 unless Mills goes down for half the season.
Two points of optimism. We played a lot of Freshmen last year who will be unusually seasoned (for Stanford) as Sophomores. No one got hurt in Spring practice.
Go Cardinal!! Despite my misgivings, I’m all in as a fan!
By hoyaparanoia on 05.05.20 10:27am
Cal: 11-1 (8-1)
Uh-huh. And I own a gold mine in the Berkeley Hills.
By Crafter Artisan on 05.05.20 9:01pm
Totally...............
Ridiculous! And not really sure where it comes from.
By hoyaparanoia on 05.06.20 9:05am
Kind of silly
Considering ESPN’s FPI has Cal as a 6-6 team. I can see 7-5 MAAAAYBE 8-4 for Cal this year. But that’s just me being optimistic about their non-conference schedule.
By Cam Mellor on 05.06.20 10:51am
What are the odds...
…of a 0-0 (0-0)?
By Candid One on 05.07.20 8:49pm