The college slate is pretty weak... ok, really weak... ok, it is extremely weak and the start of while the 2019 season has held some riveting games, the year’s cup runneth over with mediocre matchups.
But together, we can push through until hitting conference play. There is meat on these bones yet, friends, so here is The College Five:
Record: 6-4
Stanford Cardinal vs. (17) UCF Knights - UCF favored by 7.5
Stanford is in a lot of trouble. In a considerable loss to USC (a J.T Daniels-less USC, mind you), Stanford showed they could not control a game at the line of scrimmage when the opponent has excellent skill position talent, nor can they score with a team that has said talent.
UCF is favored by only 2.5 points, and I have no idea why. The Knights have the better quarterback in Dillion Gabriel, a balanced offense ( UCF average 309 passing yards and 325 rushing yards) and the ability to control the pace of the game.
The Knights are a superb scoring machine that has averaged 55 points per game early on this season. Stanford is finding their way down a long road, that holds a lot of stumbling. This game is a stumble.
UCF wins 38-27
(20) Washington State Cougars vs. Houston Cougars - Washington State favored by 8.5
This game is the last chance for the Cougars and D’Eriq King to claim fame in 2019. The hype was there for the taking; every article predicted King running into the Heisman as Houston took over the role of the frisky team outside the power-five.
Unfortunately, Houston’s defense is going to snuff out any chance they have at relevance. The Cougars allow 33 points per game, just one more than they score. The Cougars let up 12 — time to watch the dream die.
Washington State wins 42-20
(5) Oklahoma Sooners vs. UCLA Bruins - Oklahoma favored by 23.5
Chip Kelly is about to start 0-3 after a three-win season in Kelly’s debut season: A development that is shocking and wonderfully awful. The question of “Is Kelly a good coach when he does not have a rule change to exploit?” starts to creep into the back of your mind.
UCLA’s defense is abysmal, and the offense is no better, finding just 14 points each week.
Jalen Hurts already captured nine touchdowns leading an offense that averages 60 points per game. So let us all tune into the spiral of UCLA and Kelly together.
Oklahoma wins 55-10
(19) Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Iowa State Cyclones - Iowa favored by 2.5
Did you ever play pick up basketball against a team that did not feel intimidating? The type of team that is just trying for dunks when everyone else warms up, the kind that struggles against the scrappy squad on the court but gets bailed out by a fadeaway three?
Then the team that plays every Saturday shows up. They have all played together since the fourth grade; they know how each person dribbles, moves, and thinks. This team is sure to blow the swagger wagon team off the floor. Right? Nope! The kids jacking threes, playing loose and with nothing to lose takes home a win.
That team is Iowa State.
The Cyclones play some weird games until a ranked opponent is across the line and their quarterback has embodied that idea. Brock Purdy is 2-1 against ranked opponents, boasting all the necessary confidence lead his team to victory against Iowa.
Iowa State wins 27-20
(1) Clemson Tigers vs. Syracuse Orange - Clemson favored by 27.5
For some reason, the revamped Orange football team has found a way to agitate the championship-caliber Tigers over the past two years.
Syracuse is 1-1 against Clemson, with a total scoring of 51-50, and both games, decided by less than a touchdown.
Syracuse is the only program in the ACC, giving Clemson that type of trouble. They are also the only ACC team to hold Clemson to within four points or less.
They have the juice to make this game the watch of the week, by hanging with the Tigers on the line of scrimmage and making the game ugly.
Clemson wins 19-14
Comments
I want to hope for Stanford to turn it around
But the team seems thin this past few years. They need everyone healthy and everything to go just right, and when the inevitable trouble hits, the very thin margin is gone entirely. As you say above, hard not to feel like this is a team in trouble…
By g8tgod on 09.13.19 6:40pm
This Is Gut Check Time For Stanford
UCF is a good opponent, but no better than the top 3 – 4 teams in the Pac 12. Show up and beat these guys. Or go home filled with shame. Sure, there are excuses…..east coast game, some injuries, la di da. But come on. Are we the Stanford of the past 10 years or are we really regressing to fighting for a damn Bowl game.
No excuses David Shaw. Have this team ready as they were not against USC.
By hoyaparanoia on 09.13.19 8:42pm
Very challenging assignment for Stanford
UCF is a very good football team, and this game is very far away from the Farm. The margin for this team is indeed thin, as g8tgod says. I think today will be a very difficult test, and one that Stanford seems likely to fail, unfortunately, based on performance to date.
I don’t think it’s (yet) time to suggest that the program is regressing. It’s a very challenging year — the toughest schedule on paper for us in a long while given that the three non cons are NU, UCF and ND, with two of them away games — and this isn’t among the best teams we have had in the last ten years, if we are being honest, overall. So that’s a bad match — toughest schedule and not the best team. But not all years will have this same crazy schedule, and one year does not define a program, either. This has the look of being a very tough year for Stanford, but if the program keeps focused on recruiting and player development an actual "regression" can be avoided.
By Brendan Ross on 09.14.19 3:22am
Regression Is Measured By More Than Just Wins and Losses
We have, in fact, regressed from 10 – 2 (2015), 9 – 3 (2016), 9 – 3 (2017) to 8 – 4 (2018) to ?? – ?? (2019) based on regular season records. But last year’s team was way worse than 8 – 4. The Ducks coughed up the ball unnecessarily to give us a win, and we had a win against UC Davis. So easily we could have had just 6 wins against FBS opponents. We struggled mightily to beat Pittsburgh in a Bowl game.
But the bigger picture issue has been the erosion of Stanford’s ability to control the outcome of games through a dominant offensive line, a strong running attack and a reliable defense. I am sure that our record has been better than what advanced stats would say we should have been at (which I would attribute to luck rather than coaching). Which is why S&P has us at 6.5 wins this season. It looks like a big come down, but it is not – and clearly impacted by our non-conference schedule.
The question is…."What is the new norm" for Stanford"? I don’t see us regressing to the norms of the times before Jim Harbaugh arrived, but 9 or 10 wins seems to be an increasingly bigger ask for this team. I think 7 – 5, 8 – 4 is probably the new norm year in, year out. We could be below this level this year due to our schedule, and could well climb above it in some years. Recruiting seems to remain strong. We have averaged top 25 the past three years (#14, #40, #21), but seem to have trouble matching our performance of 3+ years ago. Depth and injuries do take their toll, perhaps more so than in previous years.
Baseline, we are probably going to start most years as the #3 or #4 team in the PAC 12. Maybe tied for #2 with one or two teams some years. Nothing wrong with that, but it does change expectations. National Championships are probably not going to happen. Conference Championships are going to be more elusive. We just don’t walk out on to that field anymore with the knowledge that we have the player personnel and the game plan to insure victory – mistakes aside. Every week is going to be closer to a toss up, with more variables that are not under our control. It is, using David Shaw’s words, no longer just about "execution".
I say this without any malice as a devoted and serious Stanford football fan. May I be proven wrong! I think today will be a turning point for the team, one way or the other.
Go Cardinal!
By hoyaparanoia on 09.14.19 8:48am