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David Shaw's Conservatism Costs Stanford in Fiesta Bowl

[Oklahoma State scores to tie the game with 2:35 remaining. Ty Montgomery downs the ensuing kickoff for a touchback. Andrew Luck enters stage right. He's calm.]

You couldn't have scripted a better opening to the final chapter of Andrew Luck's remarkable Stanford career than the situation that unfolded late in the fourth quarter of Stanford's 41-38 loss in the Fiesta Bowl. The two-time Heisman runner-up, who had completed 22-of-26 passes to that point, had more than 2 minutes and three timeouts to march the Cardinal 80 yards for the winning score in a wild shootout with Oklahoma State. It was almost too easy. The Cowboys, it seemed, were cooked.

Sure enough, Luck started the drive with four consecutive completions. A 5-yard run by Stepfan Taylor moved the ball to midfield with more than a minute to play. On 2nd and 5, Luck found Jeremy Stewart for a 25-yard gain and Oklahoma State called timeout with 52 seconds remaining. Taylor ran for 6 yards on the first play after the timeout. Just like that, Stanford was in the red zone -- Luck's happy place -- and the Cardinal still had three timeouts. The game was won...until it was lost.

Star-divide

With the biggest game of the season on the line, do you put the ball in the hands of your third-year quarterback, the presumptive No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft, who has completed 27-of-31 passes for 347 yards, or on the foot of a freshman kicker who missed a kick earlier in the game?

David Shaw chose the latter and it was the wrong decision. I respect the job that Shaw has done this season and I admire the confidence he showed in Jordan Williamson, both at the end of regulation and in overtime. I can't imagine how disappointed Williamson must feel after missing three kicks, but it should've never come to that. Shaw shouldn't have had any reservations about letting Luck throw the ball after Taylor's 6-yard run on first down, but even if he had, it blew my mind that the Cardinal didn't hand the ball off a few more times to at least move into better field goal range. Taylor ran for a preposterous 177 yards, the Stanford offensive line was dominating, and a 36-yarder isn't exactly a chip shot. Stanford should've played for the touchdown.

"Our kids played hard," Shaw said. "They just didn't finish the game."

You didn't give them a fair chance to, Coach.

I'll have more on the game, including some happier notes, tomorrow. Go Stanford!

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Comments

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I'm not sure you can put this in Coach Shaw

Division 1 kickers on scholarship should make 35-45 yard field goals on a consistent basis…otherwise, why are they there?

The score dictated they pass

by norcaliangelsfan on Jan 3, 2026 3:12 AM PST via mobile reply actions  

35 yard field goals are not automatic in college. If you have a full minute and a top notch offense, there’s no excuse for not attempting to get closer.

by jksnake99 on Jan 3, 2026 10:37 AM PST up reply actions   1 recs

With 20 seconds and 3 timeouts left

On the 20 yard line, they had them perfectly set up for a play action pass. If it was not open, Luck could have thrown it out of the back of the end zone and they could have kicked the field goal on the next play. There would have been time for a quick 5 yard dive as well likely to get closer. The options were endless at that point.

by jterry94 on Jan 3, 2026 7:21 AM PST reply actions  

Exactly right

Coaches, in general, make this mistake far too often - field goal range isn’t a binary thing - and coaches stop trying to improve their position when they cross some imaginary line. There is some point where the chance of a miss is less than the risk of running another play but I suspect that line is very close to the end-zone something like extra-point distance.

by RealReal on Jan 3, 2026 7:22 AM PST reply actions   1 recs

Learn from Mistakes

I hope that Shaw learns from his mistakes.

From espn: http://espn.go.com/college-football/bowls11/story/_/id/7418357/fiesta-bowl-oklahoma-state-cowboys-receiver-justin-blackmon-stanford-cardinal-quarterback-andrew-luck-lived-their-billing

In response, Shaw held the final stat sheet up against the wall behind him and pointed at Stanford’s final rushing numbers: 50 rushes, 243 yards. Shaw wasn’t about to throw into the end zone.

Coach Shaw, the final stat sheet saw you losing. Frankly, that is all that matters. OK State can point at the stat sheet and say they one even though they couldn’t stop your offense. You had time to make that a chip shot.

I hope that you get back to a BCS game. I have enjoyed the last two years far more than the previous fiascos. It is important to recognize mistakes and learn from them.

by jterry94 on Jan 3, 2026 7:45 AM PST reply actions  

I wonder if Shaw's NFL background is partially responsible

Inside 40 yards, an NFL coach would be an utter fool not to pound the rock a few times, then kick the field goal. NFL kickers are routinely used in situations like Stanford found itself in last night.

Still, as we saw, there’s a fair distance between David Akers and Jordan Williamson.

"Sports don't build character, they reveal it."

by Leland's Axe on Jan 3, 2026 9:46 AM PST reply actions  

I thought the same thing. Shaw played it like he had an NFL kicker.

Its been a consistent issue for Shaw. Too much faith in his kicker, not enough faith in his outstanding offense.

Also, the playcalling in OT was just as bad.

by jksnake99 on Jan 3, 2026 10:40 AM PST up reply actions  

I know

My kingdom for one play-action pass.

Sigh.

There’s always next year…

"Sports don't build character, they reveal it."

by Leland's Axe on Jan 3, 2026 10:42 AM PST up reply actions  

Shaw was wrong and he's justifying it - Not Good

Readers of blogs like Easterbrook’s TMQ on ESPN realize that Coach Shaw played “LOSE JUSTIFIABLY” in the last minute. Coach Shaw needs to reflect that he undertook a second tier strategy: big-time coaches are blamed less for “conservative” losses than “risk-taking to win.” Mr. Gundy acted similarly.

I knew - yes knew Stanford would lose in the last minute - because NOT using Stanford’s three timeouts and playing NOT to get the absolute best field position was extremely stupid. Now a kicker takes the blame for Coach Shaw’s very wrong, very preventable, very correctable mistake. Recruits will notice too, and the Stanford players will be bitter - and it won’t heal.

As a fan, I can handle being blown out. I can handle interceptions, fumbles, etc. They are part of the game, but deliberate stupidity…… It’s not so much that Stanford should have won, but they lost through intentional stupidity. So far, Shaw is unwilling to acknowledge the error. Not good.

by OrangeMath on Jan 3, 2026 2:05 PM PST reply actions  

Playing for the FG

Has anyone seen any quotes from Shaw about the playcalling at the end of regulation? I watched a video of his postgame press conference and was extremely surprised that nobody asked about it. Instead, he was asked (for the billionth time) what Andrew Luck has meant to this program.

by Scott Allen on Jan 4, 2026 12:07 AM PST reply actions  

nm

I’ve since read this:

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2012/01/03/SPF11MKFEU.DTL#ixzz1iUkTe3fz

by Scott Allen on Jan 4, 2026 6:49 AM PST up reply actions  

That, to me, is a terrible sign. There’s a lot to like about Shaw’s coaching, but this tells me he’s going to consider being ridiculously conservative in his decision making.

Meanwhile, Chip Kelly’s aggressiveness— backed up by tons of statistical research— will continue to be worth a ton of points every season for Oregon. Sigh.

by jksnake99 on Jan 4, 2026 10:49 AM PST up reply actions  

*consider should be continue

by jksnake99 on Jan 4, 2026 10:50 AM PST up reply actions  

I can't put total blame on this on Shaw

Harbaugh made exactly the same kind of “What were you thinking” coaching decisions in some games when he was coach. Look at almost the entire 2009 season for examples.

The important thing there is that Harbaugh learned from his mistakes and the 2010 season saw a whole heck of a lot better coaching decisions. I’m not sure Harbaugh made those decisions because he felt he had to chance it because he didn’t have the personnel (although Big Game that year was definitely one of the worst decisions ever by him), but Shaw learned from Harbaugh, and hopefully he’ll learn from this game as well.

by RedOscar on Jan 4, 2026 8:39 AM PST reply actions  

I don't doubt Shaw will learn from this

And Harbaugh certainly wasn’t perfect. Nate Whitaker happened to make his kick against USC last year. If Williamson has done the same against OSU, this debate would be a side note.

by Scott Allen on Jan 4, 2026 9:54 AM PST via iPhone app up reply actions  

I wondered at the decision to go for the filed goal so soon at the time, but in all the criticism of Coach Shaw, don’t forget that earlier in the season Scott and his pal RedOscar thought Duke place kickers were proper subjects of mockery for missing 45- and 49-yard attempts

Bill Allen

by billthedog on Jan 4, 2026 10:46 AM PST reply actions  

Perhaps all that FG karma caught up to us.

by Scott Allen on Jan 4, 2026 11:09 AM PST via iPhone app up reply actions  

Part of me thinks this was karmic retribution for all the benefits we’ve received from bad opposing kickers/kicks.

by CardiGrl on Jan 5, 2026 10:17 AM PST up reply actions  

The way the OSU offense was moving the ball, I think it seemed reasonable to make sure that they didn’t get the ball back before the end of regulation. I was initially worried that Luck would have the team score too fast, leaving too much time on the clock, so in the moment I was somewhat okay with playing for the field goal. At the same time, it certainly wouldn’t have hurt to run a couple more plays and take a shot at either scoring a touchdown or shortening the field to the point where the field goal would be a chip shot…

I think Shaw will learn from this… at least, I sure hope he will…

by RickeySteals on Jan 5, 2026 12:28 AM PST reply actions  

Yeah, but in the moment it seemed like we were running down the game clock just enough to leave only about 10 seconds on the clock before we gave it back to OSU. We had all the momentum, OSU was on its heels, and we seemed to be making good timing decisions. Andrew also seemed to want to keep going. And then, we didn’t. I don’t like this decision, and he’s made similar decisions about kicking all year. I hope that this was a rookie mistake and he will learn from it, but I’m not anxious to go back to that time when we called plays so conservatively that we didn’t even give ourselves a chance to get the first down (under Teevens and Harris).

by CardiGrl on Jan 5, 2026 10:20 AM PST up reply actions  

Heh...

… you’re assuming either Teevens or Harris had any idea what they were doing in the first place.

I didn’t mind it at the time, but I also wouldn’t have minded taking another couple of shots at the endzone…

by RickeySteals on Jan 5, 2026 10:47 AM PST up reply actions  

True, they really had no idea what to do except through a 3 yard pass to the sideline.

In the stadium it seemed like eternity, while the clock seemed to tick away at extra speed while we were waiting for something…anything. Especially since the hurry-up had been working quite well for us up to that point.

by CardiGrl on Jan 5, 2026 11:28 AM PST up reply actions  

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