What a crazy week in Pac-12 football. Here's my effort to make sense of it.
The Results
Washington 17 @ (#17) USC 12
A very weird game. USC's offense was out of sync the entire game. Washington isn't very good on either side of the ball, but their defense came to play. The defense was flying to the ball and making some great plays. That said, a lot of the problem was USC's offense killing itself. USC's defense played quite well but didn't get any help from the offense. The result was USC's first consecutive home losses since 2001. Washington's defense might be the real deal. No one has scored more than 30 points on them (Cal), and is giving up only 15 points per game (for comparison, Stanford is giving up 19, with a maximum of 31 at USC).
This was a bad result for Stanford, because Stanford's victory over USC was its marquee victory so far. On the other hand, I like Chris Petersen a lot more than Steve Sarkisian. So there was definitely some satisfaction in seeing Washington come to the Coliseum and beat the guy the who abandoned them, but this still bad for Stanford. Also, this probably shorten's Sarkisian's leash, and USC will remain a hot commodity for coaches. Eventually, it seems like the odds are that USC will stumble onto a winner.
Oregon State 7 @ Arizona 44
Arizona recovered from the pummeling it took from Stanford by steamrolling Oregon State. No doubt it helped it that Arizona had Anu Solomon back. This was a pretty good result for Stanford. Everyone knows Oregon State is bad, but a week after Arizona couldn't stop Stanford (literally--every single drive led by Stanford's starting offense resulted in points), Arizona's defense smothered Oregon State. Makes it look like our offense is the real deal.
Washington State 45 @ Oregon 38 (2OT)
Wow. Who saw this coming? Oregon was unmasked by Utah two weeks ago, then struggled in the first half against Colorado. But most people still thought Oregon was good team and would have no problem handling Washington State at home. Remember, Wazzu lost to FCS Portland State at home in Week 1. There was some questionable officiating, but if you're playing Wazzu so close that a questionable call at the end of the game means you don't beat them, then you probably don't deserve to.
Colorado 23 @ Arizona State 48
I didn't watch any of this game, but looks like ASU handled the Buffaloes just fine.
(#23) California 24 @ (#5) Utah 30
What an exciting and unexpected game. Cal and Utah traded nine turnovers (including 5 interceptions by Cal QB Jared Goff). Goff is obviously an outstanding athlete, and his fans will point out that one interception bounced off the intended receiver's chest and another was a slightly questionable call (the ball moved a little as the defender dove to the ground). But Goff looked off balance all night. He had another pass sail right through a defender's hands, and two more that were tipped at the line that could well have been intercepted if they fell in the right spot. So he might have had as few as three, or as many as eight. My assessment was that this was just a good QB having a bad day against a good defense.
The other major surprise was Cal's defense. Cal's defense has looked completely hopeless for the first two years under Sonny Dykes, but it did a surprisingly good job against Utah. That said, Utah running back Devontae Booker ran for 222 yards on 34 carries, for a 6.5 ypc average. So Cal's run defense still has some work to do. If Stanford can get a similarly effective running game going against the Bears, it should have no problem scoring on them. Stanford's QB and receivers are both better than Utah's. On the other side of the ball, Cal's offensive line failed miserably to protect Goff. Stanford has exploited weaknesses along Cal's O-line to contain Cal's offense the last two years, and it looks like that trend could continue if Stanford's front seven stay healthy.
The bottom line: I think Cal is better than I thought and Utah is worse than I thought. Utah's offense struggled mightily, despite a running back who pounded the Cal defense into submission. Even great teams win ugly (and sometimes lose ugly), but the #5 team in the country simply should not be stuffed multiple times after recovering turnovers deep in its opponent's territory. I think Utah came out a little a flat after the bye week, but I really don't think Utah deserves to be a top 5 team after this.
(#16) Stanford and (#20) UCLA idle
Stanford hosts UCLA on Thursday. Until last week, UCLA looked like a legitimate contender for a spot in the playoffs. Then it lost at home to ASU in a game that ASU dominated from wire to wire. Nonetheless, the game on Thursday will be tough for Stanford, and it's a must-win.
Takeaways
Stanford's Resume Takes a Major Hit
Stanford was ranked in the mid-teens largely because: (1) its record was good; (2) its only loss was on the road to a good undefeated team; and (3) it had a marquee victory over a top-ten team on the road. Two of those qualities disappeared this weekend. First, Northwestern got absolutely destroyed by Michigan, losing 38-0 at the Big House. So Stanford's good loss no longer looks so good. Second, USC lost at home to unranked Washington. That make's Stanford's marquee victory look a heck of a lot less impressive. USC is no longer ranked. Despite these results, Stanford actually climbed one spot in the AP poll (to 15) and two in the coaches poll (to 16). But it dropped three spots (to 7) in the Sagarin ratings. It's only midseason, and this really doesn't change much. To get a spot in the playoffs, Stanford needs to run the table, same as before. That actually looks more doable than before. There are no truly formidable opponents on Stanford's schedule, with the possible exception of Utah in a hypothetical Pac-12 championship game (that would effectively be a home game for Stanford).
So Does Utah's
Utah struggled to beat Cal at home. That shouldn't be the case if you're a top-ten team. Moreover, Utah's marquee victory--over Oregon in Autzen--looks a lot worse. If your best victory can be matched (admittedly not in score) by Washington State, that really shouldn't be your best victory.
California's Resume Looks Stronger
Cal's resume looks a lot better after this week. It does not have anything approaching an impressive win so far, with its best win coming by less than a touchdown against Washington in Seattle. Indeed, Cal's performance this week in losing in the final seconds on the road to the #5 team was undoubtedly its best of the year. But after Washington went into the Coliseum and took out USC, that victory looks a lot better. So does Cal's win over a hapless Texas team that somehow managed to upset #10 Oklahoma.
The Bottom Line
The Pac-12 is a mess. Utah is the only undefeated team in the conference, but it looked very beatable last night. Utah and Stanford are the only teams undefeated in conference play. At this point, those two teams are probably the favorites to win their respective divisions and meet in the conference championship. The Big Game could well decide the Pac-12 North.
We should hope and expect Stanford to run the table at this point. Stanford is the only team undefeated in conference play in the Pac-12 North. Every one of its opponents is vulnerable. If the offense keeps clicking and the defense stays healthy, Stanford has a legitimate chance to win a Pac-12 title. For now, let's focus on beating UCLA on Thursday.
