Is this the year Stanford replaces its football attendance stairstep with a nice smooth path?

Stanford’s home attendance has long shown an annual up-and-down pattern. It rises in odd years, which have Big Game and, since 1997, Notre Dame. Then it falls in even years. True, even years have USC instead of UCLA, but Oregon State and Washington State are not as attractive as odd-year Oregon and Washington.

Stanford’s highest attendance came in 1981, when the Cardinal averaged 64,598, despite a 4-7 record. That year featured two unusual attractions—John Elway at quarterback, who was even more exciting than Andrew Luck although not as consistent, and a one-shot visit by Ohio State.

Attendance mostly declined over the next 25 years, as with a few exceptions (such as 1991-92, 1999) the team wasn’t very good. Just up the road, the 49ers were dominant. That was a reversal from the 1940s, when college football was king. The upstart pro football franchise had to borrow Stanford's color and former quarterback (Frankie Albert) to gain attention.

The coming of the rebuilt stadium in 2006 did not halt the slide in attendance. Stadium capacity was reduced from 85,000-plus to the current 50,424 (the largest crowds have been 51,424 due to standing room). However, capacity reduction wasn't the main factor.

Interest plummeted during the dismal Teevens-Harris years and the Cardinal didn’t even get a home sellout the first two years in the new facility,

Attendance bottomed in 2008 with an average of 34,258, even though the second Jim Harbaugh-led team was coming off the great victories over USC and Cal the year before. Attendance finally turned around with the coming of winning seasons (and Andrew Luck) in 2009, and by 2011, nearly every game in odd years was close to a sellout, as to ensure seats for marquee games, ticket buyers have had to buy packages.

Even years have gone up too, but there’s still a decline.

Last year's average attendance of 49,917 was the second highest since 1997. Under the normal pattern, 2016 should be a down year.

One sign of whether Stanford’s program—in its seventh year since becoming a national power with the Orange Bowl team of 2010—has made it is if it can get sellouts, or near-sellouts, every game, even in even years. We’ll get a first look at that on Friday night against Kansas State. Don't miss it!