For the second week in a row, Stanford plays an unranked team far more dangerous than their record may indicate. Sonny Dykes and the Golden Bears have taken major steps forward this year, finding themselves bowl eligible for the first time since 2011. While their season has had its share of disappointment, they are a dangerous team, particularly on offense. How can Stanford win this thing?
Stanford Offense vs. Cal Defense
If Stanford has a clear advantage anywhere, it's here. You all know about the Stanford offense, ranked second in the conference with 37 points per game in spite of the teams' insistence on running the ball and the clock. Lead by Hesiman hopeful Christian McCaffrey, Stanford ranks third in the conference with 225 yards gained on the ground per game. In addition to the success running the ball, Stanford boasts a solid passing game, completing 66.5% of its passes for a conference second-best 8.9 yards per attempt. Their low ranking in yards per game is more a function of the strength of the run game than a weakness in throwing.
Cal's defense isn't the porous unit of years past, but it still has its holes. The Bears rank in the middle of the Pac-12, giving up 28.2 points per game, a marked improvement from the 2014 defense which gave up 44.1 points per game. Cal's defense struggles in the run game, giving up an average of 199.1 yards per game and 4.7 yards per carry. Thus, the starting gameplan will likely stay the same for Bloomgren and the offense: run the ball.
The advanced stats match up with the traditional stats on this end as well. California's defense ranks 75th in Football Outsider's Defensive Efficiency. From our perspective, the reasons for this ranking make for a favorable matchup. Cal is decent against the big play but struggles to stop slow and sustained drives. Methodical Drive Rate measures the percentage of opponents drives lasting ten plays or longer and Cal ranks 85th in the country, allowing 20.8% of all drives to last that long. Stanford's offense ranks 16th in this category with 18.2% of their drives taking 10 plays or longer. This should play into Stanford's hands as they should be able to move the ball while running the clock, avoiding tough passing downs while moving the chains and keeping the Cal O off the field.
One of the downfalls of the slow, methodical drive is added difficulty of punching the ball in once you've reached the Red Zone. As the field shortens, the defense tightens and running the ball becomes increasingly tough. Against a high scoring offense like Oregon or Cal, punching the ball in is increasingly important. Stanford has scored on 87% of its Red Zone opportunities this year, 65% of which has been touchdowns. Against Cal, Stanford cannot settle for field goals like they did against Oregon.
Another downfall of the slow drive is the risk of turnovers. More plays obviously means a greater risk of turnovers, even if that risk is mitigated some by the heavy rushing attack. Oregon was a painful reminder of this, but expect Stanford to be tighter this week with the ball. They'll need it.
Of course, this is the Big Game in a crazy year of College Football, so expect things to be unpredictable. Cal is playing with nothing to lose and you can expect an inspired gameplan from their coaching staff. Like the WSU game, it wouldn't be surprising to see Cal key in on McCaffrey and the run game and I wouldn't be surprised to see them be successful. It'll be up to Shaw and Bloomgren to adjust to Cal's defense and use their many other weapons. Stanford certainly has the tools to put up more than enough points Saturday but it isn't a sure thing. I'd also look for Stanford to incorporate a few trick plays which have been fruitful for the Card this year.
Cal Offense vs. Stanford's Defense
I'll dive into Cal's statistics shortly, but I think they're a lot like Oregon in that their accomplishments and statistics thus far don't match their true talent level. Cal's offense has to be taken seriously, particularly with senior CB Ronnie Harris out due to injury. Without Harris, Stanford will start 5 first year starters in their secondary and with the Bear Raid employing so many receivers, other inexperienced players will see lots of playing time. The group is certainly talented but inexperienced.
When working, Cal's offense has the potential to be truly special and has many factors that can cause Stanford's defense problems. First, its up-tempo nature (ranked 25th in pace coming in 2014) can be exhausting for defenses. At 20.7 seconds per play, the shallow defensive line can be exhausted by long drives. As we'll see later, Cal isn't known for their long drives, but their up tempo nature mixed with Stanford's lack of depth puts more pressure on Hogan and the offense to sustain long drives and score.
Cal's quick tempo and frequent throws will be a big test to the defense. Like Oregon, Cal will show formations with lots of receivers requiring constant communication from the defense. Against Oregon, the young secondary had a few crucial breakdowns causing big plays. Look for Cal to try and exploit the young defense in a similar manner.
It wouldn't be fair to the Bears to gloss over the run game. Khalfani Muhammad and Vic Enwere have done excellent jobs stepping in for the injured Daniel Lasco. Both players have the burst to make big plays but the stamina to be every down backs. The amount Cal runs the ball is dictated by defensive formations. Stanford will likely be forced to move linebackers out wide to defend receivers or put a nickelback in the game. The front three's ability to stop the run will be huge in allowing Stanford to dedicate the needed numbers to stopping the pass. If Stanford is forced to leave more guys in the box to stop the run, expect Goff and company to throw even more with greater success. It's yet another reason Stanford's offensive success is so important. If the Cardinal can get out to a big lead, Cal will be forced to be one dimensional, a huge key for the Stanford defense in 2015.
The Bear Raid is about as different from Stanford's offense as could be. Cal ranks a pedestrian 60th in Methodical Drive Rate but excels in Explosive Drive Rate where they are ranked 19th. This statistic measures the percentage of drives earning an average of 10 yards per play or more and shows how Cal thrives on bigger plays. Cal actually averages 64 yards per game more than Stanford but scores a touch fewer points. Where do these differences come from?
California's offense has been plagued by turnovers all season long, prematurely ending point-scoring opportunities. California is actually +3 on the year in turnovers, but their 14 total interceptions rank at the top of the conference. Goff's success against Stanford will depend on his ability to protect the ball. Stanford's defense has been subpar in this regard, forcing a mere 12 takeaways (second to last in the conference), 7 of which were picks (again, tied for second to last). This is a favorable matchup for Cal, whose offense's biggest nemesis thus far has been the turnover. Stanford will likely need a game changing takeaway to take control of this game.
Special Teams
Neither teams special teams have been particularly special in 2015. Cal and Stanford's punters rank 11th and 12th in the Pac-12 in total punts, respectively. Christian McCaffrey has done a shockingly little amount on punt returns and has been quiet as of late on kick returns after a hot start to the year. Both Stanford (25%) and Cal (19%) rank bottom three in the conference on touchbacks, meaning both teams return men should have a chance. I'd expect Cal to kick away from McCaffrey while Stanford's solid kick coverage shouldn't have much trouble with Travor Davis. All in all, special teams shouldn't have a huge effect on the game. Now that I've written this, the game will undoubtedly come down to a special teams play.
So what's your prediction for Saturday's contest?
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