The Hopeful Stanford Fan's Unofficial Guide to Scoreboard Watching
by Scott Allen on Nov 21, 2025 8:30 PM PST
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PrintDisclaimer: None of what you're about to read matters if Stanford doesn't take care of business against Notre Dame. If you're superstitious and worry that speculating about possible BCS bowls instead of focusing solely on the Fighting Irish is bad karma (or you just think it's a waste of time), proceed at your own risk.
When Stanford kicks off its regular season finale against Notre Dame on Saturday evening, it will know, based on the outcomes of games on Friday and earlier Saturday, whether its slim BCS title game and Rose Bowl hopes are still alive. That's not ideal, especially if everything breaks the Cardinal's way in the early games, but oh well. The very fact that we're mentioning the NCG and Rose Bowl as possible destinations after Oregon dismantled the Cardinal two weeks ago is remarkable.
Stanford's paths to Pasadena and New Orleans are improbable and require upsets of the same magnitude as Iowa State's shocking win over Oklahoma State. (One commenter calculated the odds of Stanford's "most likely path" to the National Championship Game as 3.2%. Dare to dream.) If Stanford's national title and Rose Bowl dreams die before it takes the field, the Cardinal can still feel pretty good about its prospects of earning an at-large BCS bid to the Fiesta Bowl with a win over Notre Dame. That's pretty cool.
Here's a handy guide to prepare you for this weekend's action, which doesn't involve rooting for any team quite as icky as Oregon (blech) or USC (double-blech), depending on which side of the fence you were last week. For that, we can all be thankful. To the games...
THURSDAY, NOV. 24
Texas at Texas A&M, 5 p.m. PT, ESPN
Root for: Whoever you darn well please. Don't let this Big 12 tilt ruin your Turkey Day, but you might want to pick a school and practice rooting for a team other than the Cardinal as a tuneup for Friday.
How it affects Stanford: One outcome might be slightly better for Stanford than the other, but as far as I can tell, this game won't have any real bearing on the Cardinal's BCS hopes. If I'm wrong, please enlighten me in the comments.
Get in the spirit: Confuse your relatives by ending everything you say at the dinner table with "Gig 'Em" and flashing a thumbs up. Substitute "Hook 'Em" and the accompanying hand signal if you're partial to the Longhorns.
FRIDAY, NOV. 25
Houston at Tulsa, 9 a.m. PT
Root for: Tulsa? 100 points?
How it affects Stanford: I don't think this game matters much to the Cardinal's hopes either, as Stanford has a pretty comfortable lead on the Cougars. A loss would ruin Case Keenum's already slim Heisman hopes. On the other hand, if you'd like to see Houston's high-powered offense in a BCS bowl, root for the Cougars.
Get in the spirit: Read the story of Tulsa's Captain 'Cane, commit it to memory, and spread it far and wide. His heroic tale deserves to be told.
Arkansas at LSU, 11:30 a.m. PT, CBS
Root for: LSU*
How it affects Stanford: This is an important one. Both teams are ahead of the Cardinal in the BCS Standings, but a loss is unlikely to bounce undefeated LSU out of one of the top two spots. An LSU win, however, would eliminate the Razorbacks from the national title race. and the possibility of 3 SEC teams earning BCS bids.
Get in the spirit: Eat ham with a side of grass.
SATURDAY, NOV. 26
Iowa State at Oklahoma, 9 a.m. PT, FX
Root for: Iowa State
How it affects Stanford: Just a little. It's unlikely that a 2-loss Oklahoma team would jump the 1-loss Cardinal, even if the Sooners defeat Oklahoma State next week (a must for Stanford to make the title game), but it wouldn't hurt to have the Cyclones stick a fork in the Sooners.
Get in the spirit: It shouldn't be hard to muster up a little love for Iowa State after it kicked off last weekend's chaos with a win over Oklahoma State. Go to YouTube. Search "Paul Rhoads."
Alabama at Auburn, 12:30 p.m. PT, CBS
Root for: Auburn*
How it affects Stanford: Alabama is currently No. 2 in the BCS. If the heavily favored Crimson Tide wins the Iron Bowl, it's probably headed to New Orleans for a rematch with LSU. Lose to Auburn, and there's a decent chance that 2-loss Alabama gets jumped by Stanford.
Get in the spirit: Forget that Cam Newton ever played for the Tigers and shout the following:
Bodygetta Bodygetta Bodygetta Bah
Rah Rah Rah
Sis Boom Bah
Weagle Weagle
War Damn Eagle
Kick em in the butt, Big Blue
Hey!
Virginia Tech at Virginia, 12:30 p.m. PT, ABC
Root for: Virginia
How it affects Stanford: Virginia Tech is currently No. 5 in the BCS standings, one spot ahead of Stanford. No matter that this is absurd, the Hokies will probably maintain their lead if they win on Saturday. Assuming that happens, Virginia Tech will have another chance to falter against Clemson in the ACC Championship Game, but do we really want to have to rely on Clemson for anything? No, we do not. Go Wahoos.
Get in the spirit: Wear an orange and blue striped tie, some pastel pants, and tailgate instead of actually watching the game. If Virginia falls behind, pop your collar for good luck.
Oregon State at Oregon, 12:30 p.m., PT, ABC
Root for: Oregon State
How it affects Stanford: Regardless of what happens in this weekend's other games, if Oregon State can shock Oregon in the Civil War, Stanford will win the Pac-12 North and play the Pac-12 South champion for a berth, at the very least, in the Rose Bowl. I say at the very least because, if everything else goes their way, Stanford could win the Pac-12 title but wind up in the National Championship Game.
Get in the spirit: Head to Building the Dam for some Civil War week smack talk. This is the game that's probably least likely to go Stanford's way (the Auburn-Alabama game is a close second), but the good news is that an Oregon win can't ruin the Cardinal's BCS title hopes if LSU and Auburn both win. Also, it's going to feel so -- excuse me, sOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO ::deep breath:: OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO -- good rooting for the Beavers. Win the freakin' day, Sean Mannion.
*If either of these teams doesn't win, Stanford's national title hopes go poof.
To summarize, the three most important games for Stanford's BCS hopes are:
Arkansas at LSU (Go Tigers!)
Alabama at Auburn (Go Tigers!)
Oregon State at Oregon (Go Beavers!)
The first two games are the most important for Stanford's slim BCS title game hopes, while the third will determine Stanford's chances of playing in the Rose Bowl. If LSU and Auburn win, Stanford will remain very much alive in the BCS title race with a win over Notre Dame, regardless of how Oregon fares against Oregon State. If LSU, Auburn, and Virginia win, Stanford could jump to No. 2 in the BCS rankings with an Oklahoma win over Oklahoma State next week.
If LSU and Auburn win, but Virginia loses, Stanford could still wind up in the title game with an Oklahoma win against Oklahoma State and a Virginia Tech loss to Clemson in the ACC Championship Game next week.
Regardless of how LSU and Auburn fare this weekend, an Oregon loss to Oregon State clinches the Pac-12 North for Stanford. The Cardinal would host the Pac-12 South champion for the right to represent the Pac-12 in Pasadena.
And if things around the country don't break Stanford's way this weekend but the Cardinal beats Notre Dame, it will be in good position to earn at at-large BCS bid. Losses by any two of the five teams ahead of the Cardinal in the BCS standings, except LSU, could put Stanford in the top 4 of the BCS standings, which, like last year, would guarantee a BCS bid.
GO STANFORD! And all those other teams.
(This post is subject to change based on comments from smart people like you.)
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3 SEC teams in BCS games
Re: LSU-Arkansas
I believe the most likely—and only—way for this to happen is for Georgia to win the SEC Championship Game and for 1-loss LSU & Bama to still be 1-2 in the final BCS rankings.
3 SEC teams in the top 4 does not guarantee a 3rd bid—the top 4 auto rule is trumped by 2-teams-per-conference rule. BUT: the the two-teams-per-conference rule would be trumped by the need to recognize auto-bids for AQ conference champs and the matching of 1 versus 2 in the title game.
But still cheer for LSU—knocking Arkansas behind Stanford is very important for Stanford to get into the top 4 for an auto bid.
(P.S. this is what I’ve read elsewhere, could be mistaken)
by Tbrennan on Nov 21, 2025 8:39 PM PST reply actions
Yep, that's how I understand it, too.
The only way the SEC gets 3 bids is if two SEC teams finish 1-2 in the BCS and a third team wins the SEC championship.
by Scott Allen on Nov 21, 2025 8:49 PM PST up reply actions
And now I see your point...
An LSU win obviously wouldn’t eliminate the possibility of 3 SEC teams getting BCS bids. D’oh.
by Scott Allen on Nov 21, 2025 8:57 PM PST up reply actions
Longhorns/Aggies
My sister went to Texas; her hubby went to A&M..always an interesting day for them
by dblecard on Nov 21, 2025 9:12 PM PST reply actions
4 more games with implications!
Theys have small implications (though bigger than the Texas rivalry), but I find the following amusing:
Stanford would overtake VTech without either playing any games if 3 of the following 4 results happen
Arizona beats LA Lafayette
Duke beats North Carolina
San Jose St beats Fresno St
Cal beats ASU
Probably even with just 2 of those happening. You can check it yourselves with the best of the 6 BCS rankings, the Colley Matrix. It allows you to play God and change results
http://www.colleyrankings.com/playgod.html
With 3 of those 4 results Stanford would jump from #10 to #7, and VTech would drop to #8. Enough to overcome the BCS difference!
Hey, I know it’s nerdy, but it’s all Scott and his nerdy posts’ fault!
by Euler on Nov 21, 2025 9:45 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
Thanks, Euler
Just the type of feedback I was looking for.
Playing God with the Colley Rankings is fun. Is there a way to include more than 5 games?
Let’s say that all four of of the games you mention go Stanford’s way this week. Could the Cardinal finish ahead of the Hokies in the final BCS standings if Stanford beats Notre Dame but doesn’t win the Pac-12 North (Oregon beats Oregon State), and Virginia Tech beats both Virginia and Clemson?
In a nutshell: Does Virginia Tech have to lose one of its final two games for Stanford to jump the Hokies in the BCS standings? Would a win over Notre Dame AND an improbable Pac-12 title be enough to jump VT if it wins the ACC Championship?
by Scott Allen on Nov 22, 2025 6:05 AM PST up reply actions
Thank you, Scott, for your posts
- Nope, you can only introduce 5 games. Although you could always code his algorithm yourself! He’s the only one who publishes the formula
http://www.colleyrankings.com/matrate.pdf
- If VTech wins out, there’s close to no chance that Stanford passes them. Beating ND is slightly better than beating Virginia both for computers and pollsters, but beating Clemson on top of Virginia is way better.
- Even if Stanford got to the Pac-12 game, the highest ranked opponent there would be an 8-4 Utah (ranked 30-40), which still wouldn’t hold a candle against beating Clemson.
- That said, I believe it’s unfair that VTech is ahead of Stanford. If you just look at the W and L columns, then it’s ok because even though Stanford beat USC, Stanford had too many scrubs in their schedule. The computer rankings reflect that.
But pollsters should also take into how the teams play, and VTech has had real problems beating mediocre teams, while Stanford blew out every mid-level opponent but Cal.
If the computers were allowed to use Margin of Victory (much more fair), we wouldn’t have this anomaly. They’d drop from #18 to #19 in Sagarin, and from #9 to #32 in Massey.
by Euler on Nov 22, 2025 2:49 PM PST up reply actions
Meant to say “They’d drop from #18 to #29 in Sagarin”
by Euler on Nov 22, 2025 3:05 PM PST up reply actions
Nutshell likely answers: Most likely, depends on South champion
VT’s best non-conference win, though, is over 9-2 Arkansas State compared to a possible Stanford win over 8-3 Notre Dame. So if Arizona falls to LA-Lafayette, there’s a strong, strong possibility that the Colley Matrix keeps VT above Stanford due to Arkansas State defeating Lousiana Lafayette earlier in the season, even if Stanford beats Notre Dame. If the Wildcats win, contingent on Stanford beating the Irish, the Cardinal would probably jump VT given at least Cal beats ASU and/or Duke beats UNC (I’m almost willing to write off the Spartans as a loss to FSU this weekend given they lost a chance for bowl-eligibility at home to the worst team in the WAC three weeks ago). But VT would probably jump right back over Stanford if they win this weekend against Virginia and especially against Clemson.
What’s most troubling, though, is that VPI’s four non-conference opponents went 27-17 up through this weekend for a 0.614 winning percentage while Stanford’s three opponents have gone 15-18 for a 0.455 winning percentage. That’s what it really boils down to. The Hokies’ opponents’ record won’t be substantially effected either, because two of their non-conference opponents, ECU (5-6) and Marshall (5-6), play each other this weekend, meaning they’ll get at least one more win while Stanford’s non-conference opponents could go 0-3.
As far as the conference championship goes, Stanford’s best schedule booster is to play in it (preferably against Utah, the team with the best overall record of the three contenders). Barring that, though, it has to really pull for UCLA to win over USC and hope the Bruins beat Oregon next week as the other two teams in the race for the South Stanford never played, meaning it has no head-to-head win over those teams.
by RedOscar on Nov 22, 2025 3:34 PM PST up reply actions
Colley Matrix
I find the Colley Matrix very interesting. Using the playgod thing, if you remove Stanford’s loss to Oregon, a 10-1 Oklahoma State is actually ranked #1 over a 11-0 LSU team. Why is it that all of the Big 12 teams seem to be ranked so highly in his computer rankings?
by China on Nov 24, 2025 10:14 PM PST up reply actions
Because they deserve it
Their Out of Conference record is a fantastic 27-3. The Pac-12 had a slightly harder OoC schedule, but they only got 21-12 (I’m hoping it becomes 23-12 after today).
You can see all the OoC games here
http://www.colleyrankings.com/foot2011/rankings/conf12.html
The only decent OoC that the Pac got were Notre Dame and Missouri (a 6-5 team).
by Euler on Nov 26, 2025 11:02 AM PST up reply actions
Who goes to the Fiesta?
If Stanford loses to Notre Dame. Unless ND somehow rises into the top 14, it seems like it’s still Stanford, unless they want Boise State instead (and why would they, when they can have Luck?) . They won’t take a second Big 12 team to play the Okla-Okla. State winner, there won’t be any spots for SEC or Big 10 teams if Michigan makes the Sugar Bowl, and who wants the Virginia Tech-Clemson loser?
by vk on Nov 21, 2025 11:18 PM PST reply actions
Probably Boise
The 2007 Fiesta was a classic game, and I’m sure that they wouldn’t mind a rematch with OU, even if the teams are completely different.
Plus that game would look immensely appealing to ESPN and the potential ratings it could bring.
by RedOscar on Nov 21, 2025 11:35 PM PST up reply actions
A few games I'd add
Ohio State over Michigan - UM appears to be top contender for Stanford’s BCS spot if it comes to that.
Texas Tech over Baylor - Solely for Luck/Heisman concerns.
South Carolina over Clemson - Diminish VTech’s loss and ACC title game opponent.
Tulsa over Houston - Get Houston out of top 16 for purposes of clinching BCS auto-bid-although TCU then becomes a bigger threat for this spot, as per these BCS rules:
“3. The champion of Conference USA, the Mid-American Conference, the Mountain West Conference, the Sun Belt Conference, or the Western Athletic Conference will earn an automatic berth in a BCS bowl game if either:
A. Such team is ranked in the top 12 of the final BCS Standings, or,
B. Such team is ranked in the top 16 of the final BCS Standings and its ranking in the final BCS Standings is higher than that of a champion of a conference that has an annual automatic berth in one of the BCS bowls.
No more than one such team from Conference USA, the Mid-American Conference, the Mountain West Conference, the Sun Belt Conference, and the Western Athletic Conference shall earn an automatic berth in any year. (Note: a second team may be eligible for at-large eligibility as noted below.) If two or more teams from those conferences satisfy the provisions for an automatic berth, then the team with the highest finish in the final BCS Standings will receive the automatic berth, and the remaining team or teams will be considered for at-large selection if it meets the criteria."
by Tbrennan on Nov 22, 2025 1:11 PM PST reply actions
Good additions
I think it’s almost certain that either TCU or Houston will be in the top-16 (although TCU’s computer ranking will suffer after playing UNLV, so maybe it’s all on Houston).
Stanford and TV-friendly Luck will then be fighting against a B1G team that travels much better.
The best chance for Stanford to go to a BCS bowl is to finish in the top-4 (which should be rather easy if LSU and Oklahoma/Clemson do their jobs).
Annoyingly, many of these possibilities will have played before Stanford takes on ND. Hopefully they won’t be distracted.
by Euler on Nov 22, 2025 2:57 PM PST up reply actions
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