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Takeaways from USC at Stanford

Every once in a while, the better team loses a football game. I don't think it's common, but it probably happens in college football at least a couple times every week. What doesn't happen very often is that one team thoroughly dominates the other in virtually every phase of the game, but still manages to give it away. That's what happened at Stanford Stadium on Saturday. Frankly, I'd be shocked if anyone who can muster even a modicum of objectivity thinks USC is a better football team than Stanford after that game. Stanford was not just better than USC on offense, defense, and kick return and coverage, it was much better. USC was better at field goal kicking. It's simply a fact that the offense and Jordan Williamson made so many mistakes that they handed the game to USC. Most of those mistakes had quite literally nothing to do with USC's play. They were not the sort of mistake where you can credit USC with making a good play or stalling a drive. Most of the mistakes didn't even involve a single USC player.

1. Stanford's defense is still really, really good

Despite losing so many key players, Stanford's defense looked unbeatable yesterday. USC rolled up 50+ points and 700+ yards last week and set a record for most plays by a Pac-12 team in a game. Stanford held USC to 13 points, 291 total yards, and 61 plays. USC's offense looked very good on its first drive, but after that, Stanford's defense stiffened. USC never even really threatened Stanford's endzone for the final 50 minutes of the game.

The radio commentators--as well as folks in the ROT game thread--kept saying that the offense needed to give Stanford a cushion, because with an offense with as many special playmakers as USC's, it's only a matter of time before one of them breaks a big play. That never happened. This incredibly talented USC offense with so many weapons couldn't even get close to the end zone after its opening drive.

USC had 6 points on two field goals over the final 50 minutes of the game, and one of them was the kicker's career long. That says a lot about the Stanford defense. If it continues to play like this, Stanford should be fine.

2. Stanford played its game

I think everyone expected it to be a good sign for Stanford if Stanford won the time of possession battle. Well, Stanford did, and definitively. Stanford won the time of possession battle by over seven and a half minutes. What very few people expected was that Stanford would run more plays than USC. Again, Stanford did; by my count 71 to 61. If you'd told me before the game that Stanford would not only win the TOP battle but actually run more plays than USC, I would've thought the game was in the bag. This is another reason I think it's fair to say that not only was Stanford better, but it dominated this game. USC wanted to play fast, run a lot of plays, and score a lot of points. It did none of those things. Stanford wanted to control the clock, slow down the tempo, and keep its defense off the field. It did all of those things. Stanford played the game it wanted to play, but stupid mistakes cost Stanford the game.

3. The offense is raw but talented

Despite all the miscues on offense, it's important to point out that the offense actually played a pretty good game. Stanford's offense racked up 413 total yards (outgaining USC by 122). Stanford was basically the opposite of USC. While USC never had a sustained drive after its first, Stanford's offense was slow the first two drives (missed a long field goald and a punt). After that, the Stanford offense moved the ball at will on every successive drive. USC has one of the best defenses in the conference, so that's nothing to sneeze at.

4. Mistakes cost Stanford the game

Stanford lost for one simple reason: its red zone offense and field goal kicking were sloppy. Again, this had nothing to do with USC and everything to do with Stanford's preparation, coaching, and execution. Consider:

  1. On Stanford's first drive, Johnny Caspers got called for tripping, backing Stanford up from the USC 30 to the 40. Result: missed FG. (lost 3 pts)
  2. On Stanford's second drive, a high snap went over Ty Montgomery's head when Stanford lined up in the wildcat on the USC 13. That backed Stanford up 16 yards to the USC 29. Stanford faced 3rd and 22 instead of 2nd and 6. Result: Stanford punts from the USC 29 yard line. (lost 3-7 pts)
  3. On Stanford's fourth drive, Stanford faced 3rd and 1 at the USC 7. Stanford was flagged for a substitution infraction, and then for delay of game. Stanford faced 3rd and 11 instead of 3rd and 1. Result: FG good. (lost 0-4 pts)
  4. On Stanford's fifth drive, Jordan Williamson missed a 29-yard field goal. He should make that every single time. (lost 3 pts)
  5. Stanford's seventh drive started on the USC 32 yard line, thanks to some dumb USC penalties and a big kickoff return by Ty Montgomery. But Kevin Hogan mishandled an exchange with the running back. Result: fumble, USC recovers. (lost 3-7 pts)
  6. On Stanford's eighth drive, a touchdown pass to Austin Hooper was called back on an illegal block. I didn't see the play, but it sounds like the call was questionable at best. Regardless, even if the illegal block happened, it was unnecessary and did not affect the play. Result: Stanford punts from the USC 32. (lost 7 pts)

Every single one of those drives ended with no points, or fewer points than they should have, because of a mistake totally and completely unrelated to USC's play. Stanford left a minimum of 19 points, but as many as 31 points, on the field simply due to its own errors. This game should have been a Stanford blowout.

You do have to give USC some credit for the strip sack at the end and the 4th and 1 stop (neither of those are counted above). The strip sack was simply a good defensive play, and USC absolutely deserves credit for it. The 4th and 1 stop at the USC 3 was also impressive, but it was really David Shaw's fault. He has to realize that he just doesn't have the personnel to run power on such a critical play. I liked the call to go for it at the time (in retrospect, kicking a 20 yard field goal would've sent the game into overtime), but I think almost any other play would have been better. A simple run up the middle from a normal set would probably have been fine--I don't think USC stopped a Stanford run for less than 2 yards all day--or maybe a zone read run/pass option for Hogan. But running it up the middle out of a power set against a solid defense was not a good call. Nor was giving it to Daniel Marx, who had never carried the ball in a collegiate game before.

What's remarkable is that the USC defense that is supposed to be so good only stopped Stanford's offense three times the entire game, and that's even counting the 4th and 1 stop. The other six drives stalled or ended solely because Stanford made dumb mistakes, and not as a result of anything USC did.

5. The bright side: this should all be easily fixable

It's frustrating to lose a game that you so obviously dominated. Extremely frustrating, especially when the opponent is a rival like USC. But the bright side is that Stanford thoroughly dominated one of the best teams in the Pac 12 on both sides of the ball for virtually the entire game. Stanford has the talent and schemes in place to win every remaining game on its schedule. Stanford just has to clean up the mistakes and not shoot itself in the foot. The coaching staff should know exactly what to work on after this game. There is absolutely no excuse for not fixing these problems going forward.

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