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RG3 or Andrew Luck?

Interesting tidbits here

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Griffin III vs. Luck

  • First of all, if you can look at the charts for Robert Griffin III and Andrew Luck above and find a reason that Luck should be ahead of Griffin on anyone's ballot, please let me know. This is a collegiate award, not the NFL draft.
  • RGIII completed 2.4% more of his passes than did Andrew Luck against a slate of defenses that allowed 0.7% fewer completions.
  • He averaged nearly 90 yards more than each Baylor opponent allowed otherwise, Luck only threw for 33 more yards that Stanford opponents were allowing on average.
  • Furthermore, Luck's explosive passes (10+, 20+, etc) were basically in line with his opponents' season totals, he had one extra 10 yard completion per game, while RGIII bettered each of the Baylor opponents' season numbers in over 3 fewer attempts per game.
  • Griffin III averaged 2.2 yards per attempt more than Luck against a slate of defenses that allowed .3 fewer yards per attempt than Luck.
  • Opponents were half as likely to intercept Griffin as other quarterbacks they faced; Stanford opponents intercepted Luck at a nearly identical rate to the rest of their schedules.
  • I didn't include Griffin or Luck's rushing totals here, but feel free to take a look at those on your own - they are heavily slanted in Griffin's favor.

  • I think the most striking point for Griffin is the following: Griffin had a higher passer rating against a tougher slate of defenses; in fact, the difference between Griffin's passer rating and his opponents' (61.5) was nearly twice that of the difference between Luck and Stanford's opponents' (31.8).
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    Interesting stats

    I appreciate you digging a little deeper than the conventional “more TDs, more yards, fewer INTs”.

    The first four points you raise can be answered by one name: Kendall Wright. Seriously. Look at his highlights, look at his stats, and then try to find one time this season when any Stanford receiver beat any defensive back on a fly route. Kendall Wright does that routinely. Having that kind of receiver boosts completion %, YPA, total yardage, TDs, QB rating, and a whole bevy of other stats. For fun, take away Kendall Wright’s stats from Griffin’s totals, and Coby Fleener’s stats from Luck’s. Watch what happens.

    Interceptions are a product of having receivers who can’t get separation and who bobble the ball off their hands. I’ve only seen Luck throw one or two bad interceptions this season, over half of his picks were his receivers failing to make a catch or box out the defensive back.

    Rushing stats….yeah. Well, if Luck were a Division 1 track athlete, he’d probably have pretty good rushing stats too. He’s still extremely mobile, though. Most of his touchdowns have come on rollouts, he’s scrambled efficiently (fewest negative plays from scrimmage of nearly any quarterback this season), and he can get the yards on his feet when he needs too.

    One final note: I really get tired of the “Sure, Luck is a better prospect who will be drafted higher, will produce at the elite NFL level, and in general is the heir apparent to Peyton Manning. But he’s not the best college player.” What? Is there a mysterious set of skills which just materialize once a player has his name called on Draft Day? Do pro scouts look at a quarterback and go “Hmmm…he’s not very good right now, but he’ll definitely be the best prospect since John Elway”? Or, is there a slim chance that Luck will be picked #1 overall because he’s the best collegiate player in America, with a skill set that will translate perfectly to the NFL?

    "Sports don't build character, they reveal it."

    by Leland's Axe on Dec 7, 2025 11:00 AM PST reply actions  

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