ESPN Asks: Can Stanford Win It All?
by Scott Allen on Jun 5, 2025 8:01 PM PDT
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PrintESPN Insider has been counting down the 20* teams that could win the BCS title this season. Stanford checks in at No. 10, one spot below Ohio State. (The Buckeyes could go undefeated, but they're ineligible for postseason play, hence the asterisk.) Kevin Gemmell excerpts the main points in the Stanford post here.
I think the most interesting portion of the article, though, is the final projection:
Projections are a function of the win likelihood of a team in each regular-season game, based on Football Outsiders' F/+ projected team ratings and home-field advantage. ...
Most likely result: 10-2 (33 percent likelihood)
Projection window: 8-4 to 11-1 (93 percent likelihood)
Swing games: versus USC, at Washington, at Notre Dame, at California, at Oregon
Hardly earth-shattering, but it's a little surprising that 10-2 is the most likely result, no? I predicted 9-3 back in January. I'm predicting 9-3 today. I'd love to be wrong.
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I mean
9-3 and 10-2 are not exactly dramatically different results. And saying 10-2 is 33% likely…well, that’s not exactly a huge favorite result. So, yeah, saying 9-3 isn’t outlandish.
by dth1 on Jun 5, 2025 9:38 PM PDT reply actions
True
I was just a little surprised that 10-2 is considered the most likely result, however small the difference between the most likely and second-most likely result is.
by Scott Allen on Jun 5, 2025 10:17 PM PDT up reply actions
I'd lean
more towards 9-3 as most likely, though honestly I haven’t run any simulations yet (I don’t think there’s even a public database easily sorted of the season schedule publicly available), and my #‘s aren’t close to final in any case.
by cfn_ms on Jun 7, 2025 3:46 PM PDT up reply actions
Voted Secondary
To Sailor,
Only new blood the 2nd yr player Lyons, who missed his 1st yr due to foot injury and 1st yr player Alex Carter. Both are projected CB’s which leaves a very big hole at FS. Now Alex Carter did play S his senior yr and could be moved to FS.
David
by davidd2152 on Jun 13, 2025 12:58 PM PDT reply actions
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